Alabama vs. Mississippi State: How to watch, odds, predictions from ESPN, KenPom

With conference seasons opening tonight in college basketball, the SEC will have a handful of big-time matchups to open their year this evening. However, one stands above the rest as two Top-25 teams will clash in Starkville tonight when No. 8 Alabama faces No. 21 Mississippi State.

Getting this win could set the tone for both the Tide and the Bulldogs so, naturally, everyone has a prediction as to how this one could play out.

How to watch Missouri vs. LSU

Tip-off: 9 p.m. EST

Location: Humphrey Coliseum (Starkville, Mississippi)

Channel: SEC Network

Vegas odds

Alabama is a 2-point favorite over Missouri on Thursday according to VegasInsider. The over-under is set at 138.5 points.

ESPN BPI prediction

Predicted winner: Mississippi State

Predicted point differential: 0.1

Win probability (for Mississippi State): 50.3%

Matchup quality: 93.3

ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a tool that measures team strength and uses that to predict outcomes of future performances. ESPN’s BPI has Alabama vs. Mississippi State ranked as the highest-rated game on Thursday’s slate in terms of matchup quality.

KenPom prediction

Predicted final score: Alabama 68, Mississippi State 67

Win probability (for Alabama): 54%

KenPom is another tool that provides advanced analysis across college basketball. Unlike ESPN, though, KenPom projects that Alabama will be the team that opens SEC play at 1-0.

More on Alabama vs. Mississippi State

To this point, we’ve almost all heard about Alabama’s story. The Crimson Tide have played one of the nation’s toughest non-conference slates and come out of it at 10-2. That includes wins over teams like Houston and North Carolina with their only losses coming to UConn and Gonzaga. Their balance on offense and defense is a major key for them and it’s impressive considering all the new pieces Nate Oats is working with in Tuscaloosa. His transfers in Mark Sears and Nimari Burnett and freshman in Noah Clowney and Jaden Bradley have all played well, but his crown jewel is star freshman Brandon Miller (19.3 ppg, 8.7 rebounds).

Meanwhile, Mississippi State actually stands as the team with the better record at 11-1. The Bulldogs started 11-0 before dropping their most recent game against Drake. The key to that highly successful start has been the defensive focus of new head coach Chris Jans. Their defense is third in the nation in points allowed per game (52.3) and their adjusted efficieny on that end is fifth best in the nation per KenPom. Senior forward Tolu Smith and his teammates will need to be better on offense tonight but, if they want to get back on track and knock off Alabama, that new calling card will be their ticket to do so.