Alabama vs. Tennessee odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Tide, Vols

Two of the top three teams in the current SEC standings face off in Knoxville as Alabama looks to remain undefeated in SEC play against a tough Tennessee team.

Alabama (12-5, 4-0 SEC) will come into the game as the underdog despite their unblemished conference record, and are hitting their stride in mid-January having not lost a game since Dec. 20. Before that, however, is where the Crimson Tide have struggled. Losing three-straight games to top-10 opponents at the time in Purdue, Creighton and Arizona, the Tide look to secure a win against another highly-ranked opponent in Tennessee.

For the No. 6 Vols, they had a similar skid against highly-ranked opponents in November against Purdue, Kansas and North Carolina, respectively. Ever since, they’ve been dominant having lost one game in the past seven weeks. Now, the Vols look to defend home court against the Crimson Tide and improve to 10-0 in Thompson-Boling Arena this season.

Odds for Alabama vs. Tennessee

Coming into the game, Tennessee is a 5.5-point favorite over Alabama, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Volunteers are currently listed at -225 for the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Crimson Tide are sitting at +184. 

The point total for the game is set at 157.5 points. Alabama comes into the game averaging 90.2 points per game, second in the SEC, while Tennessee averages 79.1. Combined to equal 169.3 points per game, Saturday’s matchup has the makings of being a high-scoring affair.

Final score predictions for Alabama vs. Tennessee

BPI Predicted winner: Tennessee
BPI Predicted point differential: 3.5
BPI Win probability (for Tennessee): 62.5 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 95.0

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 3.5 points in Tennessee’s favor. It also gives the Volunteers a 62.5 percent chance to win the game over the Crimson Tide at home.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 95.0, which is the fourth-best quality score of the day. However, it is the highest-quality SEC matchup of Saturday’s slate.

KenPom Predicted final score: Tennessee 83, Alabama 80
KenPom Win probability (for Tennessee): 63 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Saturday’s game between Tennessee and Alabama, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ consensus, projecting the Tide to lose by roughly three points.

How to watch Alabama vs. Tennessee

Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN2, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Thompson-Boling Arena – Knoxville, Tennessee

The opening tip between the Crimson Tide and Volunteers is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET and will air live on ESPN2. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.