AP Poll Prediction: Projecting Top 25 ranking after Week 1 of college football

The college football season is well and truly underway. With a full slate of games this weekend and the bulk of them having already taken place, On3 stops to project the updated AP Top 25 rankings.

Our projections are based on results posted over the weekend, as well as historical moves in the AP Poll. For games that are not yet completed, we are waiting to see the results before updating accordingly.

This post will be updated following the conclusion of games on Sunday, as well as the conclusion of games on Monday. But for now, let’s dig into the updated projection of the Top 25.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)

RESULT: 14-7 win vs. Texas
It wasn’t always the cleanest game as some key early drops threw off the team’s offensive rhythm. But quarterback Julian Sayin mostly looked the part in leading the defending national champs to a 14-7 win over Texas.

The defense really put the clamps down on opposing quarterback Arch Manning, who was limited to just 5-of-10 passing for 26 yards in the first half. A few clutch stops in the red zone by the defense were the difference in the game.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0)

RESULT: 46-11 win vs. Nevada
Penn State put together a pretty ho-hum win over Nevada in the season opener. The outcome was never really in doubt, as you’d expect in a matchup between programs of fairly different calibers.

Quarterback Drew Allar had a routine 22-of-26 day passing, reaching 217 yards and a touchdown. The Nittany Lions spread the love on the ground, rushing for four touchdowns with no one seeing more than eight carries on the afternoon.

3. LSU Tigers (1-0)

RESULT: 17-10 win at Clemson
LSU went on the road for one of the marquee matchups of Week 1. And the Tigers mostly dominated their like-named counterpart for most of the evening. It was the defense that made the difference.

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik was limited to 19-of-38 passing for 230 yards. He did not throw a touchdown and was picked off once. It was a huge statement win for LSU, which vaults forward in the projected Top 25 rankings.

4. Georgia Bulldogs (1-0)

RESULT: 45-7 win vs. Marshall
It was an easy season opener for Georgia, which opened up a 24-0 lead by halftime and pretty much coasted throughout. Quarterback Gunner Stockton was heavily involved as a runner, leading the team with 73 yards and two touchdowns.

He was also relatively on point as a passer, throwing for 190 yards and another two scores. Georgia will get another tune-up with Austin Peay before opening conference play against a Top 25 Tennessee team.

5. Texas Longhorns (0-1)

RESULT: 14-7 loss at Ohio State
It’s never easy going on the road to face a blueblood, and Texas looked out of sorts offensively for most of the first half. It was a competitive game, but a few key decisions might have proven costly in the loss.

Ohio State came up with stops in the red zone when it needed to, including in the low red zone. Texas still has everything in front of it, as a one-score loss on the road to a top team won’t significantly damage the resume.

6. Miami Hurricanes (1-0)

RESULT: 27-24 win vs. Notre Dame
Miami looked to be cruising past Notre Dame after building a 14-point lead, but a conservative approach nearly came back to haunt the Hurricanes. Luckily, the ‘Canes made the plays they needed to, which included some clutch field goal kicking.

The win gives Miami a marquee Top 25 win early in the season and something to build around. The road will remain tough, with Florida looming in three weeks time.

7. Oregon Ducks (1-0)

RESULT: 59-13 win vs. Montana State
Oregon absolutely steamrolled Montana State from the opening whistle. The run game was on point, racking up 253 yards and five touchdowns as 12 different players logged a carry in the contest.

Quarterback Dante Moore also settled in nicely, going 18-of-23 passing for 213 yards and three touchdowns. He did not throw an interception. Next up is Oklahoma State, a slightly stiffer test for the Top 25 Ducks.

8. Clemson Tigers (0-1)

RESULT: 17-10 loss vs. LSU
Clemson never quite found its rhythm against LSU, in part because it couldn’t generate anything in the ground game. The Tigers ran for just 31 yards against LSU, putting all the pressure on Cade Klubnik to perform.

He simply faced too much pressure from the other set of Tigers, never quite settling into the game. It’s early, and a loss won’t cripple Clemson… but it definitely narrows the margin for error quite considerably.

9. Arizona State Sun Devils (1-0)

RESULT: 38-19 win vs. Northern Arizona
Arizona State got a fight from Northern Arizona, with the tussle continuing deep into the fourth quarter with a late Lumberjacks score. But the Sun Devils were clearly the better team, particularly offensively.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt threw for 257 yards and two scores, while rushing for a team-leading 73 yards and two more scores. The Sun Devils posted a well-balanced offensive outing: 257 yards passing and 201 yards rushing.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-1)

RESULT: 27-24 loss at Miami
Puzzlingly, Notre Dame didn’t really ride star tailback Jeremiyah Love against Miami. He wasn’t overly involved, which put a lot of pressure on quarterback CJ Carr in his debut. He handled himself well, helping the Fighting Irish erase a 14-point deficit.

Miami managed to win in the trenches, something that will need a close look at Notre Dame going forward. There’s still plenty of season left, but this one will sting for the Fighting Irish with a tough schedule still looming.

Rest of the Projected AP Top 25

11. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0)
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0)
13. Michigan Wolverines (1-0)
14. Florida Gators (1-0)
15. SMU Mustangs (1-0)
16. Oklahoma Sooners (1-0)
17. Texas A&M Aggies (1-0)
18. Alabama Crimson Tide (0-1)
19. Indiana Hoosiers (1-0)
20. Ole Miss Rebels (1-0)
21. Iowa State Cyclones (2-0)
22. Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-0)
23. Tennessee Volunteers (1-0)
24. Florida State Seminoles (1-0)
25. Utah Utes (1-0)

This feature will be updated after games on Sunday and Monday night.