Arch Manning, top quarterbacks set to throw at camps

This weekend marks the beginning of a stretch where the majority of top quarterbacks prospects in the 2023 cycle are set to throw in high profile camp settings. Twenty of the nation’s top quarterbacks are slated compete in the Elite 11 Finals next week. The On3 Consensus‘ No. 1 prospect Arch Manning is expected to throw at the Manning Passing Academy this weekend. Manning made huge news on Thursday, announcing his commitment to Texas.

These events mark what should be the final time we see the majority of these top signal callers before their senior season. The next week will help in setting the table for the quarterback class heading into the fall.

It’s important to understand the context and role these events serve in the overall evaluation for On3.

The camp setting allows for a direct side-by-side comparisons. You’re able to get a sense for some of the physical tools, passing ability and level of development of the quarterbacks on hand. With that said, the Elite 11 (and other similar camps) is historically a highly structured setting, without a pass rush. 7-on-7 play is the closest we get to a translatable open environment at these camps but is not always on the docket.

Thus, it is important to take a macro view as it relates to projectable skills rather than thin-slicing camp minutiae. What we see over the next week should prove informative, but must be viewed in the proper context in order to have real utility in the evaluation. Camps are ultimately just one of several components in the larger evaluation process.

Arch Manning expected to throw at Manning Passing Academy

Arch Manning is a unique recruit. He’s the scion of one of America’s top sports families and has crossover appeal. No football prospect in recent memory has drawn this type of mainstream attention. As a result, he had a calculated, low-key recruitment in an effort to manage the situation.

That approach carries over to off-season events. Outside of throwing for college coaches last summer, we haven’t seen Arch Manning hit the camp circuit. He is not expected to be at the Elite 11 Finals and has never attended one of the Elite 11 regional events.

Manning has spent the summer playing 7-on-7 with his New Orleans Isidore Newman team. That includes playing in LSU’s high school 7-on-7 tournament earlier in the month, prior to an official visit to Alabama.

The Five-Star Plus+ prospect is expected to throw at the Manning Passing Academy – his family’s long-running event that is annually held at Nicholls State in Thibodaux, Louisiana.

The Manning Passing Academy typically attracts a bevy of top college quarterbacks and this year is no different, the majority college fooball’s of top starting quarterbacks are slated to attend. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young from Alabama and Ohio State‘s CJ Stroud are among the headliners.

Comparing Arch Manning with the other top quarterbacks

As noted earlier, the majority of the other top quarterbacks in the 2023 cycle are expected to throw at the Elite 11 Finals in Los Angeles next week. As is the case every year, we’re going into the event looking to see how each quarterback is progressing heading into the fall.

Arch Manning has held the No. 1 spot in On3’s 2023 rankings since the initial release last year. He’s shown the most complete package of physical ability along with on-field play and skill set to this point. With that said, the quarterback pecking order is far from crystalized. This is the case in most cycles, but 2023 is no different.

 USC commit Malachi Nelson (No. 2) and Tennessee pledge Nico Iamaleava (No. 5) are both rated as five-star prospects, putting them right behind Manning.

Nelson has long been considered one of the top quarterbacks in the cycle. He is a developed, polished passer with a quick release and accuracy on Friday nights. Iamaleava is coming off of a breakout performance at Overtime’s OT7 7-on-7 league, where he looked like the top overall prospect at the most loaded off-season event in years. The 6-foot-5.5, 190-pound Iamaleava looks like the most physically-gifted 2023 quarterback to this point.

Complete Elite 11 Finals Roster

Clemson commit Christopher Vizzina is another who is within five-star striking range at No. 20 overall. The Birmingham area product has had a strong run of off-season showings. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him impress at the Elite 11 Finals. The same could be said for quarterbacks like Dante Moore (No. 45) and Oklahoma commit Jackson Arnold (No. 56). Alabama commit Eli Holstein (No. 119) and Jaden Rashada (No. 155) are two more physically-gifted quarterbacks who could make waves.

Setting the table for the fall

Ultimately how the quarterbacks fare in 11-on-11 football during the fall will play a significant role in how the quarterback rankings will shake out. The senior season is typically the best indicator of future success for top college quarterbacks and those who end up as high NFL Draft picks. It’s the most recent evaluation point for quarterbacks prior to enrolling as freshmen. The senior season is also the largest and most applicable sample size with hundreds of game reps.

With that in mind, we view camps as an informative piece, but not the basis of the evaluation. We’ve found that evaluating for skill set rather than over-focusing on performance in these settings tends to yield more accurate projections. Our Elite 11 rankings will almost certainly differ from the camp staff’s and other outlets.

Looking back on our final Elite 11 rankings from last year, the top two foreshadowed the final order in the On300. Ohio State signee Devin Brown (then committed to USC) finished at the top, followed by Penn State signee Drew Allar. Brown (No. 1) and Allar (No. 7) both had strong senior seasons and finished as the top two quarterbacks in the On300. But that’s not always going to be the case. Purdue signee Brady Allen was not an Elite 11 Finalist. He finished as the No. 4 quarterback and No. 40 overall prospect for On3.

Top NFL quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow were not invited to the Elite 11 Finals in their respective cycles, despite throwing at regionals. Justin Herbert attended few camps, if any. All four had great senior seasons.

The next week should prove informative in sorting out what is a talented and deep quarterback cycle. Devin Brown and Drew Allar‘s elevated play as seniors was foreshadowed at the Elite 11 Finals. We could see the same this year.