Arch Manning vs. Nico Iamaleava: Breaking down the race for 2023's No. 1 prospect

Monday’s release of the updated 2023 On300 finds two touted quarterback prospects — Texas commit Arch Manning and Tennessee pledge Nico Iamaleava — remaining as the top two prospects in the cycle, respectively.

The pair have topped the On300 dating back to July. While Iamaleava’s senior season has come to an end, Manning remains in the state playoffs and has more evaluation opportunities. It’s safe to say the Arch vs. Nico debate is among the chief questions as we move towards the final rankings update in January.

While Manning and Iamaleava have emerged as the top two quarterbacks in the cycle, the two differ in skill sets, making for a unique and challenging debate. Manning is a polished, accurate and efficient passer who looks to have a high floor. Iamaleava looks to be the most physically-gifted signal caller in the cycle with considerable room for development at the college level.

Let’s break down what each brings to the table in the race for 2023’s No. 1 overall prospect.

Arch Manning’s accuracy, efficiency makes for a safer bet

The NFL legacy became a bit of a lightning rod on social media as fans debated his credentials as a top quarterback prospect and questioned his competition level at Isidore Newman High in New Orleans. For anyone paying attention to his play this fall, Manning has largely silenced the haters as a senior. He’s completed close to 63 percent of his passes for 2,226 yards (10.7 yards per attempt) for 34 touchdowns with zero interceptions, while leading Newman to a 8-2 record thus far.

While the zero interceptions is certainly notable, we’re more impressed with the progression Manning has made in terms of his efficiency and overall production. He’s largely handling the competition much more in accord with what you’d expect from a five-star, No. 1 type quarterback. This is in spite of missing his top receiving option, Texas tight end commit Will Randle, for much of the season.

We’ve also seen Manning add velocity to his throws. His arm looks stronger as a senior. The ball is noticeably popping out of Manning’s hand and cutting through air as he drives throws downfield.

The progression as a senior is encouraging and typical of a true top quarterback prospect. With that said, there are some areas for Manning to improve. For one, we’d like to see better escapability and reaction to pressure. Make no mistake, Manning is not playing behind a top offensive line, but he’s still taken more sacks than we see from a No. 1 overall quarterback. We’ve charted Manning having taken around 25 sacks this fall. For comparison, we have Nico Iamaleava taking less than 10 sacks.

How one views Manning’s reaction and results when facing pressure is similar to a Rorschach test. Some chalk it up solely to his offensive line, while others view it strictly as Manning’s responsibility. In reality, it’s probably somewhere in between.

Regardless of what proves to be the true cause of the higher than normal sack rate, Manning does project as an in-structure, pocket passer at the next level. His mobility is not deficient, but there’s room for improvement on that front relative to most other top quarterback prospects.

Nico Iamaleava’s physical gifts present the high upside option

After seeing the majority of the top 2023 quarterbacks both on video and in person, it’s safe to say Nico Iamaleava is the most physically gifted of the bunch. The 6-foot-5.5, 195-pounder is a gifted thrower and a twitched-up athlete. The ball comes out of his hand differently than any other 2023 quarterback I’ve seen throw in person.

You don’t have to squint to see Iamaleava’s physical tools translating to the SEC and ultimately the NFL. The flashes are highly impressive. Iamaleava’s ability to drive the ball downfield on vertical shots is eye-popping. He’s also able to evade defenders and make high-level reactive plays against pressure with his arm and feet.

We saw Iamaleava turn in a truly dominant performance over the summer at Overtime’s OT7 7-on-7 tournament. He looked like the top prospect at the offseason’s most loaded event. Iamaleava looked very comfortable in that setting, making a number of difficult throws while also looking to be an accurate passer on a play by play basis.

Iamaleava’s senior season did not go as smoothly as his showings on the 7-on-7 circuit. While he certainly flashed the immense physical tools, we never saw Iamaleava and his Downey (Calif.) Warren offense get into a true rhythm for much of the season. The offense was often disjointed and out of sync. Iamaleava was not always on the same page with his receivers and missed some layup throws. The unit was rife with penalties, often playing behind the chains. How much of that falls on Iamaleava is hard to say. Similar to Manning, how one parses this situation is likely influenced by their view of Iamaleava as a prospect.

Still, we would’ve liked to seen better production and efficiency from Iamaleava as a senior. While we don’t have the complete stats, he entered his team’s final game completing 56.8 percent of his passes for 1,726 yards and 24 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 348 yards and six more scores. The lack of gaudy production as a senior would make Iamaleava an outlier among recent highly drafted quarterbacks.

For those reasons, Iamaleava’s range of outcomes as a prospect appears to be wider than Manning’s. His career arc is more contingent on development at the college level than many other top quarterback prospects.

Looking ahead

The 2023 quarterback cycle is different than most prior years due its depth of blue-chip arms and lack of an emphatic top prospect among the group. While Manning and Iamaleava have separated themselves as the top two to this point, we don’t see a signal caller consistently dominant to the level of a Bryce Young or as uniquely gifted as Caleb Williams. That’s not to say a prospect of Young or Williams’ caliber won’t emerge from the cycle, but more so that things are murkier at this late stage.

As noted above, there’s still evaluation points remaining in the process. Manning is still in the playoffs, as are many other blue-chip signal callers. How will Manning fare against a top Louisiana high school program on Friday? Is Nico Iamaleava‘s physical talent just too much to deny in a today’s climate where several high ceiling, naturally gifted quarterbacks are thriving? Could new five-star and Oklahoma commit Jackson Arnold factor in with a dominant playoff run and all-star showing? These are just a few of the questions that remain unanswered as we work towards the final rankings in January.