Is the Arch Manning sweepstakes down to two? Pros and cons of a Texas vs. Georgia decision

The Arch Manning sweepstakes is down to Texas and Georgia. We think.

With Tuesday’s news that four-star 2023 quarterback Eli Holstein committed to Alabama, the Crimson Tide (unofficially) bowed out of the race for the No. 1 quarterback and top overall player in the On3 Consensus Rankings.

The Crimson Tide certainly wouldn’t turn away Manning, the nephew of former NFL stars Peyton and Eli Manning and grandson of Archie Manning. But the domino effect of Alabama accepting a commitment from another quarterback in the 2023 class signals what many insiders have been whispering for the last month: Arch Manning is likely to end up in Athens or Austin. 

“I think the obvious is it eliminates Alabama,” On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Chad Simmons said. “I don’t think it really changes a whole lot on my end for Arch. I’ve seen Georgia and Texas as the favorites for the last month and a half or so.”

Florida and LSU continue to push to enter the mix, but Manning has upcoming official visits locked in for Georgia (June 3-5) and Texas (17-19). For now, Manning intends to stick with his scheduled trip to Alabama (June 10-12). 

With such important visits, a lot could change — and be determined — within the next month. For now, Nostradamus doesn’t even know where Manning will play college football just yet, but what is clear is the New Orleans native is going to end up playing in the SEC — starting as soon as next year or in his potential swan-song season at Texas in 2025. 

Tuesday was a major boon for the folks in Austin and Athens. Another Jenga piece was taken off the board, but the Longhorns and Bulldogs are still standing. Arch has two (or more) great options, and it’s clear that Georgia and Texas check two very important boxes the Mannings value: Unique college town + trustworthy relationships.

But what about everything else?

Manning is going to make a calculated decision. He’s been patient through the entire process. It’s in his family’s genes. Eli did it when he strong-armed his way to New York and Peyton pulled off a great late-career move when he left Indianapolis for Denver. 

Now, on one should tell Cooper Manning’s son where he should attend college. Unfortunately, there’s too much of that going around on Twitter and message boards already. Instead, here’s simply a rundown of potential pros and cons Arch Manning is likely evaluating between the Longhorns and Bulldogs.

TEXAS

Pros: By choosing the Longhorns, Manning would instantly make Texas — the state that produces as much high school talent as anyone — the most attractive destination in the country for oodles of blue-chip talent. He would lend immediate credibility to Steve Sarkisian’s vision for the future of the program.   

Manning would also be coached by one of the best quarterback teachers in the game, and would play in an offensive system that is both friendly for college quarterbacks to post gaudy numbers while also preparing them for the NFL. It’s a very appealing combination.

The pressure to be “the savior” for the Longhorns would be immense, but Arch Manning is already the most scrutinized high school recruit since LeBron James. So since Manning wants to be a legend, if he’s the quarterback to lead Texas out of wandering in the desert after all these years then he’d become an all-time folk hero. 

A couple other interesting positives should Manning choose Texas: He’d be positioned to be the face of the Longhorns’ move to the SEC in 2025. I think there’s also some potential negative ramifications to this too, but it would provide another chit to cement his legacy. 

Then there’s Manning’s name, image and likeness earning potential. On3’s Jeremy Crabtree reported that Manning “does not plan on not plan on doing any NIL deals until after he makes his commitment,” but the kid is set for a major payday whenever that comes — with an On3 NIL Valuation of $3.1 million. 

He could star in national commercials alongside his dad, uncles and granddad. But he could also clean up in Texas — one of the biggest brands in the sport with all the oil money you need and one collective (Horns with Heart) already handing out $50,000 each to offensive line signees. 

GEORGIA

Pros: Unlike Texas, Georgia’s culture and foundation are unquestioned. Kirby Smart awoke a sleeping giant, leading the Bulldogs to their first national title in 40 years and setting a record with 15 NFL Draft picks. 

In Athens, Manning would always be surrounded and supported by top talent — on both sides of the ball. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken runs a pro-style spread offense and he turned Stetson Bennett into someone who went from fourth-string to finishing fourth nationally in passer rating in 2021. Imagine what he could do with Manning’s skill-set. 

It’s been well-documented that Manning is looking to pave his own path. To create his own legacy — but importantly doing so while winning. At Georgia, he wouldn’t be burdened by being the “savior.” He’d step into a ready-made situation with the chance to still become an immortalized all-time Bulldog great. He could make Georgia the new kings of the SEC.

Notably, continuity and opportunity are also in UGA’s favor. Stability has never been synonymous with Texas, but at Georgia, it would be a stunner if Smart wasn’t around for Arch’s entire college career. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have several young quarterbacks on the roster but none are positioned to block Manning from playing as a freshman in 2023 — unlike five-star UT freshman Quinn Ewers. 

TEXAS 

Cons: As just mentioned, Manning would very likely have to sit at least one season at Texas. 

Maybe that’s actually a pro instead of a con, as Arch is viewed as a real student of the game and watching for a season wouldn’t stunt his development.

However, that would buck every recent trend with five-star quarterbacks — particularly one set for record NIL deals. Most expect (and do) to play as a freshman, so having Ewers in Austin until at least 2024 could be a concern. Also, what if Ewers is awesome and becomes the hero first? 

Then there’s the macro issue of Texas being Texas. It’s simple, yet confounding. You can’t really explain it, but you know what it means. The Longhorns went 5-7 last season and there were all sorts of cultural red flags in Sarkisian’s first year. They didn’t have a single player drafted. Perhaps Ewers or Manning can make the Longhorns a winner instantly, but it seems like Sarkisian has a real rebuild on his hands — and whichever five-star quarterback plays best could simply expedite the process. So if Manning hopes to win a championship, is Texas really the best landing spot?

Lastly, what about Texas’ future move to the SEC? Would it benefit Manning to start his career on Day 1 in the conference (at Georgia, Alabama or stay home at LSU) or potentially play his pivotal draft-eligible year with all the questions and storylines about suddenly playing against the best competition in the CFB?

GEORGIA

Cons: The idea that Georgia doesn’t develop QB talent is overstated. Again: Look at what Monken has done with Bennett. But it is true that the Bulldogs haven’t had a quarterback drafted in the first round since Matthew Stafford in 2009. Conversely, Sarkisian was directly responsible for the development of two recent first-round picks in Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. 

Manning is keen on being around other motivated athletes who want to win, but if he spurns Alabama because he doesn’t want to be seen as another cog in the machine, could he ultimately feel the same way about a Bulldogs program that just reached the pinnacle of the sport?

Finally, Georgia’s NIL game is also behind schools like Texas, Texas A&M, Oregon and others, so how much could that factor into Manning’s decision?