Arkansas vs. UNC odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Razorbacks, Tar Heels

The Battle 4 Atlantis will give us one of the better non-conference matchups of the early part of the college basketball season with a Top-20 clash between No. 20 Arkansas and No. 14 North Carolina.

The Razorbacks and Tar Heels will play their game within the loser’s bracket as both teams suffered losses on Thanksgiving. ‘The Hogs actually enter with a pair of losses as they dropped one before even arriving in the Bahamas.

Still, based on all the numbers heading into this one, it should be as good of a game as many will hope that it’ll be this afternoon.

Odds for Arkansas vs. North Carolina

Heading into the matchup, North Carolina is a 3.5-point favorite over Arkansas per FanDuel. The over-under is currently set at 153.5 points.

On a short turnaround, UNC is the team that got the edge likely because their loss, which was the first of their season, came by just two points in overtime to Villanova. Meanwhile, the ‘Hogs have not looked their best over their last three with a six-point loss to UNC Greensboro, a double-overtime win over Stanford by three, and yesterday’s five-point defeat to Memphis.

Final score predictions for Arkansas vs. North Carolina

BPI Predicted winner: North Carolina
BPI Predicted point differential: 3.5
BPI Win probability (for North Carolina): 61.9%
BPI Matchup Quality: 89

ESPN’s BPI has this game as one of the best during today’s slate. In their rankings, it’s fifth overall when it comes to matchup quality.

Their index is also leaning the way of North Carolina. With just over a 60% win probability, BPI has the Tar Heels winning in a close one over Arkansas with a predicted final margin that’s dead on with the actual spread.

KenPom Predicted final score: North Carolina 79, Arkansas 75
KenPom Win probability (for North Carolina): 63%

KenPom’s prediction for the ‘Hogs versus the Tar Heels was very similar to the other outlooks. The site also has North Carolina sneaking out with a four-point victory over the Razorbacks.

It also gave them a similar win probability as BPI with a 63% chance of victory for them over Arkansas.

How to watch Arkansas vs. North Carolina

Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Nassau, Bahamas

No. 20 Arkansas vs. No. 16 North Carolina will tip at 1:00 p.m. EST on ESPN from Imperial Arena in Nassau. It will be the event’s first game out of four on the day and will get underway following the conclusion of No. 12 Texas A&M vs. No. 19 FAU on ESPN2.

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Arkansas is a team that’s of a high enough caliber to battle and win over North Carolina today. Still, based on all the metrics, the Tar Heels will have a slight edge when they take the floor this afternoon.