As realignment wheels spin, what's next for Pac-12, Big 12?

As soon as the Colorado Board of Regents unanimously approved a resolution for the Buffaloes to leave the Pac-12 Conference for the Big 12 Conference, the seminal question across college sports grew even louder: Which domino falls next?

Conference realignment wheels are spinning once again, a bold new commissioner is eying establishing a coast-to-coast conference, while another confronts his league’s existential crisis. The thriving Big 12 and wounded Pac-12 are steering this realignment cycle. But their decisions could cause disruption in as many as four other conferences: Big East, West Coast, Mountain West and the American Athletic Conference.

Colorado’s return home to the Big 12 may be the only realignment tremor this summer. Or several aftershocks could follow, dramatically altering the present landscape.

Everything is status quo until it isn’t.

The next move will largely hinge on two variables: The frustration level that Pac-12 schools have with the league’s protracted media rights negotiations. And the level of urgency Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark feels about striking now to round out his league at the number he’s pinpointed: 14.

Here’s the current state of play for both leagues, as well as the potential pitfalls and benefits of various paths forward.

What’s next for the Pac-12?

We have entered the “Show me the money” phase of George Kliavkoff’s relatively brief two-year tenure as commissioner. Much like college sports coaches, Kliavkoff is in the retention and recruiting game now.

The league over the last several months has privately projected confidence that its rights deal would deliver member schools somewhat in the vicinity of $31.6 million annually. That’s what the Big 12 landed in its deal secured last fall, a six-year, $2.28 billion extension with ESPN and FOX Sports.

But there has been no indication that Kliavkoff has shared any specific financial projections with his university presidents. Media rights insiders have also been confounded by exactly who the league is negotiating with. The process is framed as a balancing act between maximizing exposure (linear platforms) and dollars. There are no signs, to date, that league members will be happy with the outcome on either front.

Kliavkoff needs to show some financials to members – and soon. Then we’ll be able to better gauge whether so-called Four Corner schools – Arizona, Arizona State and Utah – are satisfied enough with the direction of the league to stick around.

The Pac-12 is slated to field nine football teams in 2024. That makes scheduling a nine-game conference season rather difficult. It needs to dive into the expansion pool, although it has been steadfast in following an order of operations: media rights deal, then expansion.

What schools are on the Pac-12’s radar?

It also will be difficult to add San Diego State, long a heavy favorite to join the league because of its Southern California presence, for next year. But after the clumsy exchange of letters with its current league, the Mountain West Conference, if San Diego State wants to compete in another league in 2024 – it has yet to be invited – it must pay some $35 million.

The school has signaled that that is too steep a price tag. If invited, it could join in 2025 for some $17 million. But that doesn’t solve the Pac-12’s quandary next year.

SMU has been watching everything unfold with great interest. Kliavkoff has visited the campus. Dallas-Fort Worth brings nearly three million television homes to the Pac-12, extending its reach into football-obsessed Texas. The school’s deep-pocketed donors are well documented throughout history and are fully capable of leveraging NIL to fortify a formidable football program.

SMU’s exit fee stands at $10 million with a 27-month notice, although the American Athletic Conference may be willing to negotiate. The stagnant speed of the Pac-12’s rights negotiations have, to date, kept the AAC in limbo.

“We’re all waiting for the shoe to drop; it will be nice just to get this over with,” AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco told On3. “This is irritating because we’d gotten to the point where a lot of this had ended, and now we’ve got to start up again. We don’t know what’s going to happen with SMU, or even other schools, depending on what happens with the Pac-12. We don’t know whether they’re going to implode, or they’re going to be fine and add people. I just hope it gets done in the next month or so and we can move on.”

Aresco made those comments nearly five months ago. We’re all still waiting.

What happens with Oregon and Washington?

Also potentially in the mix are two other MWC schools: UNLV, located in a city in which the Pac-12 has an increasing presence, and Colorado State.

Not to be ignored, of course, is a giant housekeeping item for Kliavkoff: Keeping Oregon and Washington placated. The league failed to do so with USC and UCLA, and both bolted. It failed to alleviate Colorado’s frustrations, and it bolted.

Keeping the Northwest schools happy is the highest priority. Both are said to have wandering eyes with sights set on the Big Ten Conference. But first-year commissioner Tony Petitti reiterated Wednesday that “all the direction I’m getting from leadership, our presidents and chancellors, athletic directors, is to focus on UCLA and USC.” For the Big Ten, expansion currently is on the back burner.

Overall, options are not ideal for the Pac-12. The objective now isn’t to build to challenge the preeminent conferences. It’s about stopping the bleeding. It’s about survival. 

What’s next for the Big 12?

Just two summers ago, it was a legitimate question whether the Big 12 would even survive in the wake of Texas and Oklahoma departing for the SEC. Now the league is surging, shrewdly negotiating a well-timed rights deal, leaning into a flurry of innovations, nearing a data deal announcement, and, of course, welcoming back an old family member from Boulder.

Yormark, ever the forward-thinking executive, is now operating from a position of strength. He has many options at his disposal. He could move to further expand his league, which aspires to be a national enterprise. Or he could hang back and wait for more expansion candidates to emerge.

Nothing is guaranteed. But everything in his professional DNA appears to point toward Yormark remaining aggressive and opportunistic. He has told On3 that 14 is a number he very much likes for his league. He is one shy. It also makes sense to compete in 2024 with an even number of teams.

Colorado apparently was unsure what annual rights revenue it would receive in the Pac-12’s new deal. But what it did know is what it would receive in the Big 12 – a full revenue share of $31.6 million. The Big 12’s ESPN portion of its rights deal includes a pro rata clause, which stipulates that the financial value of the deal increases accordingly when the Big 12 adds a Power 5 school, a source familiar with the contract told On3.

How much media rights money is there?

It is unclear whether the addition of another Power 5 school would also automatically trigger the clause, or whether it would require further conversations between the league and ESPN. As one veteran TV source said Thursday, there is typically a cap on the number of P5 additions that would activate the clause.

“Pro rata deals aren’t going to happen anymore – see [the] Big Ten deal,” the source said. “Networks don’t want expansion. It doesn’t do anything for them [in most cases]. They aren’t going to pay pro rata for anyone other than Notre Dame.”

Will the Big 12 swing for the fences?

The Big 12’s home run addition would be Oregon, the biggest brand remaining in the Pac-12 and a nationally relevant program in football and men’s basketball. But unless Oregon, or Washington, is in play – and nothing at the moment suggests that – the focus shifts squarely to Tucson, Arizona.

Arizona President Robert Robbins has been coy regarding expressing fidelity to the Pac-12. In short, he wants to see financial projections first. His school would be an ideal fit for Yormark in the sense of doubling down on the Big 12’s stature as the nation’s strongest basketball league. Unless and until Robbins explicitly states otherwise, Arizona looms as the leading contender at the moment.

If not Arizona, the other two so-called four corner schools, Arizona State and Utah, are in contention. 

UConn, winners of five men’s basketball national titles since 1999 – including this past season – also aligns with Yormark’s desire to continue to build upon a strength. A move would certainly be financially beneficial for the Huskies, who receive almost $4 million annually in the Big East Conference. Even an initial partial revenue share in the Big 12 – which in all likelihood would be the case – would significantly trump the Big East payout. 

On the other hand, there’s this: While everything can be negotiated, UConn’s Big East exit fee stands at some $30 million.

Another basketball school?

Gonzaga, a non-football playing school, is an intriguing option. Coach Mark Few has constructed a perennial men’s basketball national title contender in Spokane, Washington. The Bulldogs have dominated the West Coast Conference – although the league has recently become deeper – for more than two decades. 

WCC senior associate commissioner Connie Hurlbut told On3 that the league in recent years tweaked its revenue distribution model for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament to give advancing teams – namely, Gonzaga – a larger slice of the revenue pie.

Gonzaga has been long linked to other leagues but hasn’t budged. Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports has cited unnamed industry sources saying Gonzaga has received a $15 million annual valuation. With the Zags, the Big 12’s footprint would reach all four time zones.

Whichever school he targets, Yormark is well positioned to strike again, which would further bolster his league while sending more tremors across an unsettled college sports landscape.