Athlon Sports predicts 12-team 2025 College Football Playoff field, national champion

The 2025 college football season is swiftly approaching, meaning the march toward a potential College Football Playoff bid has begun. The 12-team format will be utilized for the second season, with some notable changes.

This season’s College Football Playoff format will move to a straight-seeding model, meaning the top four teams in the final CFP rankings will receive a first-round bye. The changes come after the selection committee faced criticism when last season’s final rankings saw ninth-ranked Boise State (Mountain West) and 12th-ranked Arizona State (Big 12) earn first-round byes as conference champions.

With those changes in mind, Athlon Sports recently took a stab at predicting this season’s 12-team College Football Playoff field, along with the entire bracket and national champion. The predicted bids from each conference break down as follows: SEC (4), Big Ten (3), ACC (2), Big 12 (1), Mountain West (1), Independent (1).

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First Round Byes:
No. 1 seed – Texas Longhorns (Sugar Bowl)

Texas is expected to enjoy its best season yet under head coach Steve Sarkisian, if Athlon Sports’ predictions come true. The Longhorns have been to the last two College Football Playoffs, and all signs point toward a third-straight appearance for Texas in 2025.

The biggest question mark for then Longhorns comes under center. Arch Manning has little experience as a starting quarterback at the college level, but is predicted to be one of the top quarterbacks in the country this season. If he plays up to his expectation, Texas will be hard to bet against this fall.

No. 2 seed – Penn State Nittany Lions (Cotton Bowl)

A No. 2 overall seed in the College Football Playoff means that Penn State made it over the hump by not only beating one of, if not both Oregon and Ohio State during the regular season. But it would most likely mean that the Nittany Lions are Big Ten Champions for the first time since 2016.

Much of Penn State’s expectations will be predicated on the performance of quarterback Drew Allar this season. Opting to return to school instead of turning pro, Allar led his program to the playoffs last season and figures to do so again in 2025.

No. 3 seed – Clemson Tigers (Orange Bowl)

Clemson was back in the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019 last season. Defeating SMU in the ACC Championship game, the Tigers forced their way into the final field of 12 with the victory. They became the first three-loss team to make the CFP.

Athlon Sports does not expect the Tigers to taste defeat that often this fall, and that’s backed by their third-overall seeding in their playoff predictions. Just like Texas and Penn State, Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik will be under a microscope this season with anything short of a CFP berth being looked at as a disappointment.

No. 4 seed – Kansas State Wildcats (Rose Bowl)

The final first-round bye goes to Kansas State, according to Athlon Sports. This will be the first-ever appearance in the College Football Playoff for the Wildcats in year seven under head coach Chris Klieman.

Having won nine or more games in each of the last three seasons, Kansas State appears poised to take that next step in 2025. The Wildcats will not only have a first-round bye, but they’re also the only representative from the Big 12 in this prediction.

First-Round Matchups (Campus Sites):
No. 9 seed Alabama at No. 8 seed LSU

No storyline is needed for a matchup between the Crimson Tide and Tigers in the College Football Playoffs. These two longtime SEC rivals will also play during the regular season on Nov. 18 in Tuscaloosa. In this prediction, LSU would be the home team.

The last time these two teams met up came during the 2024 regular season. Alabama defeated LSU in Baton Rouge 42-13.

No. 12 seed Boise State at No. 5 seed Ohio State

This 5-12 seed matchup would be a first-ever meeting between these two programs. With Boise State expected to repeat as the Group of 6 representative in the College Football Playoff and MWC champion, they face stiff competition on the road against the defending national champions.

Despite being predicted to return to the CFP, for the second-straight season Ohio State would miss out on a first-round bye. This turned out to be a non-issue for the eventual CFP champions, but is interesting to see the Nittany Lions selected over the Buckeyes in this bracket.

No. 11 seed Miami at No. 6 seed Georgia

Carson Beck versus his old team would arguably be the most intriguing storyline entering this bracket. One year after leading the Bulldogs to a CFP bid, despite getting hurt one game before in the SEC title game, Beck’s return to Athens in a different uniform writes itself.

Miami narrowly missed out on the CFP last season, and to get there this season would be a major boost to head coach Mario Cristobal’s reputation in Coral Gables. Meanwhile, Georgia is looking to win its third national title since 2021.

No. 10 seed Oregon at No. 7 seed Notre Dame

Last season’s No. 1 overall seed vs. the eventual national runners up would make for an interesting matchup in the first round. Despite the success these two programs have enjoyed in the past, it would be the third time in history that they’ve met on the gridiron and first since 1982.

Oregon has never beat Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish won the first meeting in 1976 before the second meeting several years later. That matchup, played in Eugene, ended in a 13-13 tie.

Predicted National Champion

Athlon Sports predicts the Texas Longhorns to win the 2025 National Championships. The Longhorns not only earn the No. 1 overall seed in the publication’s prediction, but also has them taking down LSU in the Sugar Bowl, Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, and Penn State in the College Football Playoff championship game.

The national title win would be the first for Steve Sarkisian as a head coach. It would also be the first championship for the program since Mack Brown led them to the BCS championship game in 2009. Texas came up just short of the final game last season, losing to Ohio State in heartbreaking fashion in the national semifinal.