Auburn vs. Oklahoma prediction: Tigers fall short in Jackson Arnold's return to Norman

Jackson Arnold is the most popular name in Norman this week. Despite not playing for the opponent, the now-Auburn quarterback is making his return for a massive showdown against Oklahoma. And in a game where Arnold might wind up being a key guy, Josh Pate does not like the situation he is walking into.

“I don’t love this spot for Jackson Arnold,” Pate said via Josh Pate’s College Football Show. “The pass game is very limited. Watched a lot of Auburn football this year and almost everything in the passing game is within the line of scrimmage.”

Pate did not have the passing chart available, but if he did, he says a lot of the green dots — signaling a completion — would be within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Not what you would expect from Auburn, given the team’s wide receivers. It’s a group many expected to be one of the best in college football, made up by the likes of Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton.

If the Tigers are going to win, the downfield explosiveness has to show up in Pate’s opinion. Arnold needs to prove he can get through a Brent Venables defense in the pass game. The numbers against Baylor and a couple of lesser opponents are not all that great.

“That’s kind of how I see Auburn’s passing game, not having to dominate, but having to change the game,” Pate said. “Auburn is 101st in explosive pass rate right now. That flat out has to change. There is very, very little path to Auburn winning this game Saturday if the explosive pass is not there.”

How Oklahoma decides to defend Auburn is an interesting part of the equation too. It’s something we may have already seen a couple of games ago when Michigan was in town. Venables knew the Wolverines wanted to run the ball, attempting to force Bryce Underwood to drop back.

Using a similar strategy against Arnold might turn out to be OU’s course of action. It’s not something Pate sees Auburn being able to successfully break down.

“Give me Oklahoma to win,” Pate said. “Give me Oklahoma to cover. I just don’t love the spot for Auburn at all.”

Gaylord Memorial Stadium plays host, with kickoff scheduled for 2:30 p.m. CT. Fans are going to pack the stadium and bring quite the energy for the massive SEC showdown. An important one for both teams, Pate is rolling with the Sooners.