BCS formula updates prediction for first College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings

Ahead of the first College Football Playoff rankings reveal Tuesday night, it’s worth wondering what the top 25 would look like under the old BCS model. That format hasn’t been used since 2013, but the crew at @BCSKnowHow took a look at how things would shake out.

The BCS formula used computer projections along with the AP and USA Today Coaches polls to rank the top 25 teams. As a result, @BCSKnowHow uses six projections and both polls to come up with its rankings.

There’s a big difference from other predictions for Tuesday night’s CFP reveal atop the list, though.

1. Ohio State

Atop the BCS-projected rankings, Ohio State presents an interesting case for the College Football Playoff committee. The Buckeyes have two top-10 wins on their resume — on the road against Notre Dame and at home against Penn State — to make a strong strength of schedule arguement.

Ohio State’s defense has quietly been one of the best in the nation, ranking fourth in the nation in total defense and second in scoring. The Buckeyes open up November with a game against Rutgers as they begin their sprint toward The Game at the end of the month.

2. Michigan

Michigan could also make a case for the top spot, but the Wolverines’ strength of schedule could work against them. According to ESPN, Michigan’s schedule ranks 111th in the nation.

Still, Michigan has been one of the most dominant teams in the country, leading the FBS in scoring defense and possessing a Heisman Trophy contender in J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. Next up for the Wolverines is a primetime matchup against Purdue.

3. Georgia

The No. 1 team in both polls, Georgia finds itself at No. 3 in the BCS formula rankings. The quest for a three-peat continues for the Bulldogs, who are coming off one of their best wins of the year at the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party.

Carson Beck had a big day, throwing for 315 yards and two touchdowns to help Georgia beat Florida 43-20 in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs remain one of the top teams in the country heading into Saturday’s game against Missouri.

4. Florida State

The favorite in the ACC, Florida State continued to roll last week against Wake Forest. Led by a monster showing from Jordan Travis, the Seminoles cruised to a 41-16 win over the Demon Deacons to improve to 8-0 on the season.

Travis had one of his best games of the season, throwing for 359 yards and three touchdowns in the effort. Keon Coleman caught two of those touchdowns as he continues to be a staple of the offense, which will look to keep rolling this week against Pitt.

5. Washington

Washington presents a strong case to crack the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings with a big win over Oregon three weeks ago. The Huskies also have Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback as he becomes the favorite to win the award once again.

UW struggled against Arizona State and when it looked like the Huskies would cruise past Stanford, the Cardinal started to close the gap. Ultimately, Washington got the win, but the close nature of the victory adds to the intrigue of Saturday’s game against USC.

6. Texas

It’s been an interesting season for Texas. The Longhorns defeated Alabama in Tuscaloosa in Week 2, but lost to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game to raise questions about their College Football Playoff hopes.

According to the BCS model, though, Texas is still in the thick of the race to make the CFP after Oklahoma’s loss last week. The Longhorns put together back-to-back wins after losing to the Sooners — without Quinn Ewers for most of those games — and could make another statement this week against Kansas State.

7. Alabama

Don’t look now, but Alabama is rising up the rankings. The Crimson Tide haven’t lost since that game against Texas and have steadily climbing back into the race.

Jalen Milroe looks like he’s found his stride at quarterback and helped Alabama to an undefeated record in SEC play. The Crimson Tide are atop the SEC West standings, and they could play spoiler as the CFP rankings start to come out.

8. Oregon

The Pac-12 is still crowded, and Oregon is right in the middle of it. The Ducks put up two straight wins after losing to Washington, including a resounding win over Utah in Salt Lake City last week.

Bo Nix leads the nation with a 78.3% completion percentage and continues to make a case for the Heisman Trophy. The BCS rankings have Oregon as a top-10 team, and Dan Lanning’s group is one to watch as the rest of the year goes along.

9. Penn State

Penn State struggled more than expected against Indiana last week, but the Nittany Lions got something they’ve been waiting for all year. Drew Allar made a huge play late in the game to help get the victory, and Penn State remains in the top 10, according to the BCS formula.

The loss to Ohio State remains the only blemish on Penn State’s resume, yet the Nittany Lions could still find themselves hanging around the top 10 of the first College Football Playoff rankings. A big matchup awaits this week though against a Maryland team that just lost to Northwestern.

10. Ole Miss

As Alabama climbs up the rankings, so does Ole Miss. The Rebels’ only loss of the season came to the Crimson Tide, and they’ve got an opportunity to raise some eyebrows in the CFP rankings.

Last week, Ole Miss left no room for doubt in a 33-7 victory over Vanderbilt behind big days from Jaxson Dart and Quinshon Judkins. It sure seems like Lane Kiffin’s group could sneak its way into the top 10, if the BCS formula is any indication, when the first College Football Playoff rankings drop Tuesday night.

Nos. 11-25

11. Oklahoma
12. Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. Missouri
15. Louisville
16. Air Force
17. Utah
18. James Madison
19. Tennessee
20. Oregon State
21. USC
22. UCLA
23. Tulane
24. Kansas
25. Liberty

With Week 10 quickly approaching, all eyes will turn to ESPN Tuesday night for the first College Football Playoff rankings reveal. The BCS model provides an interesting look at what the old formula would say, but the CFP committee will have the final decision at 7 p.m. ET.