BCS formula shakes up prediction for first College Football Playoff Top 25 ranking

The first College Football Playoff rankings are just two weeks away, and the predictions continue to roll in. That includes what the BCS would look like, via the @BCSKnowHow crew.

According to the BCS projection, Georgia wouldn’t be the No. 1 team in the country as the AP Top 25 said. Instead, the Bulldogs would be No. 3 behind top-ranked Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State. In the AP poll, the Wolverines and Buckeyes were No. 2 and No. 3, respectively.

The BCS projection uses multiple computers and simulations, and it suggests the rankings would be much different under the model used until 2014.

1. Michigan

Michigan has proven to be one of the most dominant teams in the country, winning every game by at least 24 points. That includes last week’s 52-7 victory over Indiana to get the Wolverines to 7-0 overall entering a rivalry game against Michigan State.

J.J. McCarthy has emerged as a top contender for the Heisman Trophy, according to BetMGM, as Michigan’s offense averages 39.4 points per game to start the year. The Wolverines appear squarely in the mix for another College Football Playoff appearance, but the road runs through Penn State and rival Ohio State.

2. Ohio State

At 6-0, Ohio State is right in the middle of a loaded Big Ten East alongside Michigan and Penn State. The Buckeyes also have a top-10 victory under their belt when they beat then-No. 9 Notre Dame at the last second in Week 4.

Marvin Harrison Jr. remains one of the top playmakers in the nation, leading the Big Ten with 100.7 receiving yards per game and five touchdowns. A big game awaits this week, though, with Penn State coming to Columbus for a highly anticipated showdown with College GameDay and Big Noon Kickoff in attendance.

3. Georgia

It appeared Georgia was the consensus top team in the country. According to the BCS formula, though, that’s not the case as the Bulldogs fell to No. 3 in the projections.

UGA is off to a hot start, but now faces some questions as Brock Bowers prepares to undergo tightrope ankle surgery after suffering an injury against Vanderbilt. The two-time defending champion Bulldogs are off this week on a bye week before a rivalry showdown next week against Florida.

4. Florida State

Florida State is off to a 6-0 record with no signs of slowing down. The Seminoles cruised to another victory over Syracuse last week, 41-3, to stay in the College Football Playoff picture.

Jordan Travis is also a favorite for the Heisman Trophy and Keon Coleman has emerged as a potential first-round NFL Draft pick to help the high-powered offense lead the ACC in scoring. Next up is a tough matchup filled with storylines as Duke comes to Tallahassee.

5. Washington

Washington got a marquee victory — and took another step toward a Pac-12 Championship appearance — by holding off Oregon in a top-10 showdown in Seattle last week. The Huskies, led by Heisman favorite Michael Penix Jr., have rolled so far this year and look like a true national contender.

Penix orchestrated an impressive game-winning drive to find Rome Odunze for the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. As a result, Washington is not only in the CFP picture, but also looking primed for a Pac-12 title game appearance as one of two teams undefeated in conference play.

6. Oklahoma

Oklahoma jumped into the CFP conversation after defeating Texas in the Red River Rivalry earlier this month, which sent the Sooners into the bye week on a high note. Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners are looking to make some noise in their last year in the Big 12, and they find themselves toward the top of the rankings once again.

OU’s defense has been strong in Year 2 under Brent Venables, leading the Big 12 with 14 points allowed per game. Gabriel is also a Heisman Trophy contender, and he’ll try to keep the momentum going this week against UCF — his former school.

7. Penn State

Penn State has an opportunity to play spoiler in the Big Ten East when it heads to Ohio State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions have notable talent on both sides of the ball, which is why they’re seen as a possible College Football Playoff team.

Last week, Penn State took a break from Big Ten action and cruised to a 63-0 victory over UMass at Beaver Stadium. It was one last reprieve before conference play picks up, starting with Ohio State this week and with Michigan awaiting in less than a month.

8. Texas

Coming off the bye week, Texas will look to bounce back from the Red River loss to Oklahoma. The Longhorns will take on Houston to not only try and get on track, but also stay in the College Football Playoff picture.

Quinn Ewers and the offense will continue to be the focal point, but the defense has been strong, holding teams to 16.3 points per game and 323.3 yards per contest. Texas remained in the top 10 of the AP poll this week, as well, meaning the Longhorns are still in the hunt.

9. Alabama

Don’t look now, but Alabama is atop the SEC West and moving up the list of national championship favorites. The Crimson Tide gutted out a victory over Arkansas last week to remain undefeated in conference play, but a big matchup is looming on the Third Saturday in October against Tennessee.

Since a Week 2 loss to Texas, Alabama is 5-0 and has won two straight one-score games. The Crimson Tide will head into the bye after this week’s game against Tennessee, providing one final tune-up before the final four games of the regular season.

10. North Carolina

North Carolina, led by a potential top NFL Draft pick in Drake Maye, is now bowl eligible and tied atop the ACC. The Tar Heels got a big 41-31 victory over Miami last week to get to 6-0 as Tez Walker joined the lineup for the first time since being deemed eligible.

UNC jumped into the top 10 of the AP poll this week, and the BCS formula also thinks the Tar Heels are on that level. Next up is a matchup against Virginia as the ACC race heats up.

Nos. 11-25

11. Oregon
12. Ole Miss
13. Oregon State
14. Notre Dame
15. Utah
16. USC
17. Tennessee
18. LSU
19. Duke
20. Missouri
21. Iowa
22. Air Force
23. Louisville
24. James Madison
25. Tulane

The first College Football Playoff rankings are set to come out Oct. 31, meaning the postseason picture will come more into focus in the next few weeks. If the BCS formula provides any indication, it could be an interesting night when the reveal show gets underway.