BCS formula changes prediction for first College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings

The BCS model hasn’t been used in almost 10 years since the College Football Playoff came to be in 2014. But the crew at @BCSKnowHow made a prediction for how the old formula would rank the teams, and there’s no shortage of intrigue.

For the second straight week, the BCS model has Michigan in the top spot with Ohio State at No. 2 and Georgia at No. 3. The Bulldogs are once again the top team in the AP Top 25, but some rankings have them dropping out of that spot with the first CFP rankings coming quickly.

The BCS model uses a combination of the AP and USA Today Coaches Polls, as well as computer projections.

1. Michigan

Michigan got off to a lightning fast start to the season and didn’t show any signs of slowing down last week against Michigan State. The Wolverines went into East Lansing and flew to a 49-0 victory to remain undefeated entering the bye week.

J.J. McCarthy is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, ranking second in completion percentage, and is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Jim Harbaugh has Michigan in prime position to make another run to the College Football Playoff, but the road to a Big Ten title runs through Penn State and Ohio State next month.

2. Ohio State

Ohio State passed another big test as part of its quest for a Big Ten title. The Buckeyes fought off Penn State in a back-and-forth affair last week, defeating the Nittany Lions 20-18 for another top-25 victory this season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. — also known as “Maserati Marv” now, apparently — had a monster day with 11 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown to lead the effort. Ohio State looks squarely in the middle of the CFP race, and the BCS model has the Buckeyes as one of the top teams in the rankings.

3. Georgia

Georgia is coming off a bye week last week, but the Bulldogs enter this week’s rivalry game against Florida with a big question mark. Top playmaker Brock Bowers is out with an ankle injury after undergoing tight-rope surgery, meaning Saturday’s game in Jacksonville will be the first without him.

Still, Georgia ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and could make a strong case to come in at No. 1 in the CFP rankings next week. According to the BCS model, though, the Bulldogs would be No. 3 under the old model.

4. Florida State

Now 7-0 — although it wasn’t easy last week — Florida State is right in the thick of the College Football Playoff race. Jordan Travis is still a contender for the Heisman Trophy after leading the Seminoles past Duke, and he could be the key to getting them to the CFP.

Travis helped engineer three straight scoring drives to help FSU get the 38-20 win in Week 8 to remain undefeated. There’s a path to the ACC Championship for Florida State, starting with a matchup against Wake Forest this week.

5. Oklahoma

UCF didn’t make it easy for Oklahoma last week in the Dillon Gabriel Bowl. A failed two-point conversion proved to be the difference as the Sooners managed to gut out a 31-29 victory.

Gabriel had a solid day, completing 25 of 38 passes for 253 yards and three touchdowns. He’s also in the Heisman conversation with the fifth-best odds to win the award entering Saturday’s game against Kansas.

6. Washington

After riding high following a win over Oregon, Washington found itself stuck in neutral through one half against Arizona State last week. Ultimately, the Huskies overcame Michael Penix Jr.’s struggles to get the 15-7 victory to avoid disaster.

Washington is now the only team in the undefeated Pac-12 team in conference play to sit alone in first place. The Huskies’ schedule will get tougher quickly, though, with three ranked teams awaiting after this week’s matchup against Stanford.

7. Alabama

The Third Saturday in October is always a big game, and Alabama got the rivalry victory over Tennessee to kick off the cigar celebrations. The Crimson Tide find themselves moving up the rankings, which could make things really interesting when the College Football Playoff rankings drop.

Since a loss to Texas in Week 2, Alabama is 5-0 — including three straight one-score wins. The Crimson Tide will now hit the reset button during this week’s bye before diving back into the deep end against LSU next week.

8. Texas

Texas still finds itself in the top 10 with a victory over Alabama and a loss to Oklahoma on its resume. But the Longhorns’ College Football Playoff chances could hinge on the health of Quinn Ewers, who could be out multiple games with a shoulder injury.

Steve Sarkisian will now turn to Maalik Murphy — and maybe Arch Manning — to take the reins at quarterback. The Longhorns will have a quick turnaround with BYU awaiting this week.

9. Penn State

Penn State and Ohio State both showed out on defense last week in a thriller at The Horseshoe. Although the Buckeyes came out on top, the Nittany Lions are still a possible spoiler in the Big Ten with some big games coming up.

Penn State fell to No. 10 in the AP poll, but the BCS projection has the Nittany Lions one spot higher. Next up is a matchup against Indiana before taking on Maryland’s high-powered offense and a red-hot Michigan team.

10. Oregon

Oregon bounced back well after a loss to Washington, defeating Washington State 38-20 last week. The Ducks remain one of the top teams in the country, and they’re right in the middle of a jam-packed Pac-12.

Bo Nix remains one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation, leading the FBS in completion percentage. Oregon has a chance to make a statement this week, though, against a Utah team that just defeated USC last week.

Nos. 11-25

11. Ole Miss
12. Utah
13. Oregon State
14. Notre Dame
15. LSU
16. Missouri
17. North Carolina
18. Air Force
19. Louisville
20. James Madison
21. Tennessee
22. Duke
23. USC
24. Tulane
25. UCLA

The BCS projection provides an interesting look at what the rankings would look like with computer models and the polls taken into account. But all eyes will soon turn to ESPN on Halloween for the first CFP top 25 reveal, meaning the final sprint is coming up fast.