Simulating the first College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings using BCS formula

The first College Football Playoff rankings are still a few weeks away, but the Top 25 rankings are getting more interesting. Although the BCS hasn’t been around since 2014, new simulations show what the rankings would look like under the old model.

The consensus top team this year has been Georgia, and the BCS simulation adds to that argument. The Bulldogs had a strong showing last week against Kentucky as the offense appeared to hit its stride, and they remain a favorite to three-peat as national champions.

However, there are some differences from other rankings such as the AP Top 25 and USA TODAY Coaches Poll. The BCS simulation provided an interesting look at what the computers would say about the current state of college football.

1. Georgia

Carson Beck had a breakout performance at a good time for Georgia. He helped lead the Bulldogs to the resounding 51-13 victory over Kentucky last week to help UGA remain undefeated on the season.

Beck threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns in the game to set new career-highs in both categories. Georgia has momentum heading into the meat of SEC play, which continues this week against Vanderbilt before the bye week.

2. Michigan

Michigan is widely viewed as the No. 2 team in the country, and the BCS simulations agree with that idea. The Wolverines have had a lightning fast start to the season, led by quarterback J.J. McCarthy and the high-powered offense.

Michigan got another blowout victory last week against Minnesota with a 52-10 win on the road. The Wolverines are now 6-0 heading into Saturday’s game against Indiana, which will take Jim Harbaugh’s group into the bye.

3. Ohio State

Ohio State looked like it would be on upset alert against Maryland last week. But the Buckeyes found their stride in the second half to come away with the 37-17 victory behind strong showings from Kyle McCord and Marvin Harrison Jr.

McCord threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, including 163 yards and a touchdown pass to Harrison. Ohio State has to face Purdue this week before a pivotal showdown next Saturday against Penn State.

4. Florida State

Florida State entered the season with plenty of hype, and the Seminoles have lived up to the billing so far. FSU is 6-0 following last week’s win over Virginia Tech with sights set on a College Football Playoff appearance.

The BCS simulation lines up with other rankings, which have Florida State in the top four. Next week, the Seminoles will take on Syracuse before a big game against Duke on Oct. 21.

5. Oklahoma

Oklahoma got a massive rivalry victory over Texas last week in the Red River Rivalry to move to the Top 5 of the AP poll. Brent Venables’ squad has put together quite the turnaround this year and doesn’t show many signs of stopping.

Dillon Gabriel has thrust himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation in light of his monster performance against Texas. The BCS simulation shows Oklahoma as a prime contender, which could bode well for the Sooners’ College Football Playoff chances, as well.

6. Penn State

Penn State looks like it can play spoiler in a loaded Big Ten East this year with notable talent on both sides of the football. The Nittany Lions take a break from conference play this week against UMass, but they have some big games that could determine their postseason hopes.

Drew Allar leads the talented young offense, which also has Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton in the backfield. The defense also has some NFL Draft hopefuls that could help make the case for Penn State to make the CFP field.

7. Washington

Michael Penix Jr. is once again the Heisman Trophy favorite as Washington looks to make a run at a Pac-12 title. The Huskies face their biggest test yet this week against Oregon with plenty at stake.

Washington is a consensus top-10 team, and the Huskies would be under the BCS model as well, according to the simulation. This week’s game will teach fans a lot about Kalen DeBoer’s group as a legit contender.

8. Oregon

Bo Nix has taken another leap in Oregon’s offense despite switching coordinators. His completion percentage is the highest in the country heading into Saturday’s showdown, and the Ducks could further prove themselves to be a top team.

Oregon is coming off a bye week following blowout victories over Colorado and Stanford, providing some optimism around the program. This week’s game against Washington is sure to be one of the biggest draws of the season as two Heisman hopefuls square off.

9. Alabama

Alabama and Texas A&M squared off in a huge SEC West showdown last week. It was the Crimson Tide who came away with the 26-20 victory, though, to remain undefeated in league action.

Alabama has won four straight since losing to Texas in Week 2, building momentum heading into this week’s game against Arkansas and its struggling offense. Some big conference games remain ahead, though, as Nick Saban tries to get his team back to the SEC Championship.

10. Texas

Texas was stunned in the final minute of the Red River Rivalry last week as Gabriel threw the game-winning touchdown on the final drive. The Longhorns were a possible CFP contender with the Alabama win under their belts, but losing to Oklahoma took some air out of the balloon.

The BCS projections still have Texas as a top-10 team, but Steve Sarkisian’s group faces an uphill battle to get to the College Football Playoff. This week is a bye for UT before squaring off against one of the newest Big 12 teams in Houston on Oct. 21.

The rest of the BCS simulation

11. USC
12. North Carolina
13. Ole Miss
14. Louisville
15. Oregon State
16. Utah
17. Tennessee
18. Notre Dame
19. LSU
20. Duke
21. UCLA
22. Washington State
23. James Madison
24. Iowa
25. Wisconsin

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season are set to drop on Oct. 31, meaning the national championship picture will start coming into focus in time for the November sprint. For now, the BCS simulation provides an interesting look at what those rankings would look like under the old model.