Big 12 Championship Game scenarios: Path to finalize the title game

With the final week of the regular season on tap, four teams are tied atop the Big 12 standings. And nine in total are still alive for a potential berth in the conference title game.

Currently, the quartet of Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State are knotted atop the standings at 6-2 in conference play. Five more teams are 5-3 in the league. And that means there are still 256 possible combinations out of outcomes for the Big 12 to finish the year and fill-out the title game.

As of right now, the simplest path is a two-way tie for first, where a pair of the 6-2 teams lose in the final weekend while the other two make it to 7-2. But beyond that, there’s plenty of convolution — so much that the Big 12 debuted a landing page showing how the league title race breaks down.

Arizona State

Losses: at Texas Tech, 30-22; at Cincinnati, 24-14
Week 14 game: at Arizona

Arizona State is as close to being in the driver’s seat as possible: A win more or less gets the Sun Devils in the title game. There’s only one scenario where the Sun Devils win and don’t make the title game, involving a string of results to go a specific way in a three-team tie.

And barring four other results going the exact wrong way for the Sun Devils, the biggest question with a win is who they’d face in the Big 12 title game. The most likely, seemingly, would be Iowa State, but little seems predictable for the Big 12.

BYU

Losses: vs. Kansas, 17-13; at Arizona State, 28-23
Week 14 game: vs. Houston

The Wildcats are in need of an assist to get in the title game, requiring at least one of Arizona State or Iowa State to lose. BYU can’t get in if there’s a four-way tie at the top of the league, as it’s behind those two teams in the tiebreakers, as well. A Colorado loss does not directly impact BYU’s standing.

In a three-way tie atop the league, BYU would play whichever of Arizona State and Iowa State that didn’t lose. And the Wildcats can of course still top make the title game via a two-way tie if two or three of the other teams at 6-2 lose.

Colorado

Losses: at Nebraska, 28-10; vs. Kansas State, 31-28; at Kansas, 37-21
Week 14 game: vs. Oklahoma State (Friday)

The Buffaloes need some help to get to the Big 12 title game. Colorado can’t make it in a four-way tie and needs a good bit of assistance to make it in a three-way tie. The easiest path for the Buffaloes is seemingly to win and hope two of the other teams tied for first lose.

And in a three-way tie, things need to fall very narrowly right for Colorado to make it. There are two scenarios for that, according to the Big 12’s own title race page.

• BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas, and Cincinnati beats TCU — Colorado faces Iowa State in title game
• BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Kansas beats Baylor, and TCU beats Cincinnati — Colorado faces Arizona State in title game

In short: Colorado needs some other results to fall right to get ahead of other teams atop the league in the tiebreakers.

Iowa State

Losses: vs. Texas Tech, 23-22; at Kansas, 45-36
Week 14 game: vs. Kansas State

The Cyclones are in a similar boat to the Sun Devils, mostly just needing to win and hoping they don’t get bounced in a three-way tie scenario that would put Colorado in. Outside of that or a loss, though, Iowa State is in a rather solid position.

And most of the title game matchups are likely to pit Iowa State against the Sun Devils, should they both win. At that point, the only way one could get bounced is BYU losing, Colorado winning, and the aforementioned strings of results to get Colorado in via a three-way tie.

The 5 teams at 5-3 in conference play entering Week 14

While the aforementioned four teams have an inside shot at the Big 12 championship, five other teams are alive, making it nine that are still in contention as of the final week of the regular season.

The five teams currently at 5-3 in Big 12 play are Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia. Those five teams would need at least three of the four 6-2 teams in conference play to lose in order to open up the race with a collection of 6-3 teams being thrown into the tiebreakers for one or both spots.

So, until the results start rolling in this weekend, things are still wide open in the Big 12.