Big 12 Championship point spread: Picking Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Big 12 Championship is up for grabs as Oklahoma State and Texas meet for the final time Saturday before the Longhorns head to the SEC. The two teams did not meet this year during the regular season, but as fate would have it, their paths were destined to cross one more time.

Texas opens as 13.5-point favorites in Arlington according to FanDuel. The Longhorns have lost the previous two contests against the Cowboys, but have a chance to go out strong and win their first Big 12 title since 2009. OSU, on the other hand, will look to make up for a 2021 loss in the conference championship to Baylor.

How to watch Oklahoma State vs. Texas

Time: 11 a.m. CT (Saturday)
Channel: ABC, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas

Sports betting expert Patrick Meagher joined On3‘s Andy Staples to break down the matchup on Staples’ podcast Monday. He opened with some compliments for Texas as well as a tip to bettors suggesting that they watch to see whether the line moves before deciding which side to bet.

“I think Texas’ defense has been slept on a little bit,” he said. “Whenever I watch them, I’m like ‘they are freaking loaded.’ Roster construction, this isn’t even close. If it’s sitting 13.5 and it moves to 14 as a bettor, all of a sudden that makes me think completely different. I’ll take 14 with Oklahoma State. I’ll probably start looking at the prop market or halftime or different types of things if it’s sitting at 13.5.”

Steve Sarkisian has still yet to win against Mike Gundy in two seasons as the Longhorns’ head coach. However, it’s undeniable that this is his most talented team that he’s had in three years in Austin.

The Longhorns have managed an 11-1 record this season, including a big win against Alabama in Week 2. That gives them a shot at making the College Football Playoff, if the right teams in front of it lose. Texas ranks 12th in the country this season in scoring defense with 17.3 points allowed per game.

Oklahoma State has had an up and down year, winning seven of its past eight games with a puzzling 45-3 loss to UCF the lone loss. The Cowboys have a chance thanks to running back Ollie Gordon, who leads the country with 1,580 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns.

Still, Staples likes the Longhorns to take care of business, citing the motivation it has of making the Playoff as being an advantage.

“If I have the opportunity to take Texas at 13.5, I am gonna take Texas at 13.5,” he explained. “I don’t think the Texas Tech game was necessarily a representation of ‘Texas has found itself. They are going to be this team for the rest of the way.’ I do know that when Texas is properly motivated and when they play as well as they can play, they can beat any team in the country.

“We’re so used to these years where there’s nobody out there that can beat Georgia or Alabama or whoever it is we’re talking about at the top. Texas can beat every that it might see in the Playoff on the right day. It could also lose all of them. If these guys are truly ready to take that next step, they will thump Oklahoma State and put the best case scenario forward for the committee to figure out if they’re gonna make the Playoff or not. They need style points.”

Meagher agreed that the Cowboys are outmatched from a talent standpoint, citing that they needed double overtime to beat BYU and simply make this game. Texas, on the other hand, turned in a dominant 55-7 victory against Texas Tech this past week.

“If you’re talking about Texas and just the disparity of talent with Oklahoma State, how about BYU?” he said. “When Ollie Gordon ran that touchdown in, I think there was less than a minute to go. BYU came down and kicked a field goal to force overtime. If BYU is moving the ball in a big time leverage spot like that, what’s Texas gonna do? Again, it’s a mismatch in coaching. But talent-wise, Texas is right there with anybody in the country.”

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It seems both Staples and Meagher agree the Longhorns should have no problem getting the win here. We’ll see how true that prediction turns out to be when the two schools face off Saturday.