Big 12 Coach Hot Seat Ranking: CBS Sports ranks hottest seat to coldest

The upcoming 2023 season has a chance to be one of the more special years in the history of the Big 12. It is certainly unique, since the conference will have a combination of teams they’ve never had before and won’t have again. They just added four new teams, yet still have a couple set to leave next offseason.

So for just one year, the conference sits at 14 teams, which means there were 14 head coaches for the folks at CBS Sports to rank as part of their Hot Seat Rankings, which evaluate how safe each college football coach’s job is.

A note: CBS broke their rankings down with a 0-5 scale, with the following details for each figure:

0: Untouchable
1: Safe and secure
2: All good… for now
3: Pressure is mounting…
4: Start improving now
5: Win or be fired

With that in mind, here was how the Big 12 coaches stack up, from safest seat to hottest:

Chris Klieman | Kansas State — 0

Following a second 8-5 season in his first three years with the Wildcats, Chris Klieman delivered the best year of his tenure in 2022 with 10 wins, including a Big 12 championship victory over national runner-ups TCU. That sort of year will buy you quite a bit of time in Manhattan, Kansas.

Heading into ’23, the expectations aren’t calling for a regression. Rather, KSU boasts a fortified offensive line, one of the best in the country according to Phil Steele, plus a revamped running back room while returning their majority starter at quarterback, Will Howard. A return to the Big 12 title is absolutely in the cards.

Sonny Dykes | TCU — 0

The only other head coach with blanket job security, according to CBS Sports, is TCU’s Sonny Dykes, understandably so. It’s hard to imagine a better first year — or heck, a better year period — for the Horned Frogs than Dykes just delivered. In one season, he recorded a better finish than Gary Patterson ever did in his 21 total years, and that’s no slight at the TCU legend.

Dykes certainly caught lightning in a bottle by finishing national runner-ups and it’s very likely he never brings the Horned Frogs back to such heights. But that he did get them to the final game ought to buy him half-a-decade or more worth of time before it’s time to question his performance.

Dave Aranda | Baylor — 1

Aranda was likely up there in the zeroes after Baylor emerged as surprise winners of the 2021 Big 12. But in 2022, the Bears became the hunted. They were picked to win the league by media but ultimately came up far short of that goal, floundering to a 6-7 finish.

Sure, that’s not a season-long result anyone at BU would have hoped for last year. But then again, in 2021, a 12-2 record, Big 12 title and fifth place finish in the College Football Playoff rankings was definitely beyond Bears fans’ wildest dreams. You take the good with the bad here and understand that football is a fickle game and the margin between 12 wins and half as many isn’t as big as it may seem. Dave Aranda is doing just fine.

Kalani Sitake | BYU — 1

Sitake has proved himself a solid and stable coach, and has even found ways to improve throughout his seven years in Provo. In 2022, the Cougars finished 8-5 on the heels of two double-digit-win season in the years prior. At this point, fans are expecting a lot more wins than losses each year.

However, in year one of actually being in a conference, and a strong one at that, BYU could very well stumble. Sitake almost certainly gets to try a few years in the Big 12 and even a rough season this fall won’t turn fans against him.

Lance Leipold | Kansas — 1

Leipold caught on as one of the hotter young coaching names in the game last fall when he pulled a few early-season upsets with his Jayhawks. To the joy of Jayhawk nation, he’s back again after declining some other opportunities beyond Lawrence.

For all the excitement of last season, Kansas still barely made a bowl game, finished below .500 on the year at 6-7, and lost twice as many conference games as they won. It’s just tough to win power conference football games at Kansas and Lance Leipold will face another massive uphill battle again this year in the talent department. He may be a great coach and still miss a bowl game.

Joey McGuire | Texas Tech — 1

Boy, Coach McGuire sure is fired up for the future of Red Raider football. He just doubled down this week on comments from last year that… “the country’s going to find out… everything runs through Lubbock!” He also expects Tech, as an institution, is going to surge into the spotlight as the New Big 12’s flagship program.

It’s been a lot of grand talk about the future, but looking at the present, McGuire is coming off a solid first year and simply needs to maintain the status quo. Even if the Raiders drop from eight wins to six or seven in the regular season, that’s still enough success to keep the faith in their second-year headman.

Gus Malzahn | UCF — 1

Through two years with the Golden Knights, Gus Malzahn did what previous UCF coaches have also done: won games. Malzahn picked up nine wins in both of his first two seasons and even played in the AAC title game last fall.

Now, after making the jump to a much stronger conference, it’s reasonable to expect UCF to drop a few wins. But as long as they make a bowl game, it’d be hard to have too many complaints about Malzahn’s job in year one at the Big 12 level. However, if the Knights begin missing bowl games, they may have to consider someone new.

Scott Satterfield | Cincinnati — 2

You’d think a brand new head coach in charge of a program that just jumped to the Big 12 and lost most of its production from last season wouldn’t have too much pressure. But alas, CBS does see a little bit of weight on Scott Satterfield to find immediate success after he absconded from Louisville.

The team really isn’t in great shape heading into year one under Satterfield. Cincy lost their starting quarterback, starting running back and their top eight pass catchers. It’s a pretty bare cupboard offensively, while the defense is replacing an All-American at linebacker and most of the secondary. Satterfield could easily warm his seat up with a down year in ’23.

Matt Campbell | Iowa State — 2

Campbell was once one of the darlings of the college football coaching world, especially when he rattled off consecutive 8-5 seasons in his second and third years with the Cyclones. The team dipped to a 7-6 record in year four but rebounded for the best season of Campbell’s tenure in 2020 as a 9-3 Fiesta Bowl champ who finished No. 9 in the final CFP rankings.

Since then, though, has been Matt Campbell’s worst two-year stretch since taking the gig as ISU went 7-6 in 2021 and then a woeful 4-8 last season. Now, the Cyclones do return most of their key offensive starters and should have another excellent defense in 2023, so a return to a bowl game has to happen or Campbell may come under some heat.

Mike Gundy | Oklahoma State — 2

Gundy tied for his worst season at OSU since the aughts in 2022, but that shouldn’t diminish what’s largely been an immensely successful 18-year career with the Cowboys. In the three prior seasons, Gundy led Oklahoma State to above-.500 conference records and a finish in the final CFP top 25 each year.

Just last year, he placed first in these same rankings by finishing 12-2 with a Fiesta Bowl win over Notre Dame and a top-10 finish in the final CFP ratings. Oklahoma State is easily one of the more reliably solid programs in the conference, and they’re due for an upswing this coming season. If not, though, and more off-field hijinks ensue with Gundy, his rope could start wearing thin on OSU brass.

Steve Sarkisian | Texas — 2

In year two, Sarkisian returned Texas to relevancy with a top-25 finish in the final rankings plus an 8-5 record. Those aren’t numbers the Longhorns strive for, but on the heels of three prior seasons of eight wins or less, you can call it a success… for now.

If Texas were to start stacking eight-win seasons, fans would eventually call for an upgrade. So while it was a fine mark for the 2022 year and Sarkisian’s second overall, the expectation is that he improves on that finish in the next couple of years.

Dana Holgorsen | Houston — 3

This one is a bit confusing, as Holgorsen lands at a level three on the CBS chart despite putting together a pretty strong last two seasons. In 2021, the Cougars lost to Texas Tech in the season-opener and then ran off 11 straight victories before losing their only conference game of the season to CFP-bound Cincinnati in the AAC title. Then, last season, UH went a respectable 8-5.

Looking through the history of Houston football, they’ve had some pretty awesome up-and-coming coaches lately who had their best success with the Cougars, often winning 12+ games in some years. By that standard, Holgorsen hasn’t been a home run, but he’s still been pretty darn successful. However, CBS fears that a bad debut year in the Big 12 could be cause for the boot.

Brent Venables | Oklahoma — 3

Venables is the only other level 3 guy on the list, meaning that “pressure is mounting” for him to perform, according to CBS Sports. When you take the Sooners to a 6-7 record in your first year, especially after being spoiled by Lincoln Riley, it is a cause for some panic.

A second six-win season in a row could spell the end of a brief Brent Venables’ career in Norman. However, the pieces are in place for a major step up. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is back and so are the majority of their playmakers, although Oklahoma did lose its top running back and best two receivers. Nonetheless, the talent is still plentiful and Phil Steele is calling OU is second-most improved team this season. For Venables’ sake, they better be.

Neal Brown | West Virginia — 5

Coach Brown has been a Matthew Poncelet sort of character at Big 12 Media Days this week as most of the conference media has been down on him and WVU in general. Of course, his Mountaineers were picked last in the conference’s media poll — which he vehemently disagrees with — and Brown was also ranked dead last in CBS Sports’ Big 12 coach rankings.

Coming off a 5-7 year, it’s tough to muster too much excitement, but the negativity is pretty overwhelming around WVU. He’s two levels above any other coach and is on the roof of these rankings as level 5 with a “win or be fired” ultimatum. He’s got to deliver now if he wants to stick around in Morgantown.

Aside from Brown, you’d be pretty surprised if any of the other coaches were outright fired in 2023, but you never know until it all unfolds. Should be a fun and action-packed season for the Big 12.