Big 12 conference expansion: League will add four schools by 2023

The Big 12 conference is expected to enter the world of conference expansion by adding four teams by the end of the week, per Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellenger. BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF each already have the votes needed to be admitted.

The schools plan to join the conference in 2023, two years before Oklahoma and Texas leave. The two brand names in the conference accepted invitations to join the SEC on July 30, and they will leave as late as 2025 depending on grant of rights deals. 

“The league has decided to focus on those four and right now no one else is being targeted,” a source told Brett McMurphy of Action Network on Friday. 

It is unknown if adding the three AAC schools plus an independent BYU would let Oklahoma and Texas out of their deals prior to June 2025.

Boise State, Memphis, SMU and USF were also considered.

Why these four schools?

Perhaps the most important consideration when choosing who to pursue in the expansion process: television eyeballs. As Max Olson and Andy Staples of The Athletic cited last week, BYU has similar television viewership to the middle of the pack in the Big 12.

“Between 2015 and ‘19, the median audience Big 12 teams (minus games involving Texas and Oklahoma) drew for 36 games broadcast on ABC, Fox or ESPN was 1.786 million viewers,” they wrote. “BYU’s numbers were comparable; the Cougars’ median audience in 16 games broadcast on those channels was 1.64 million. For 104 games broadcast on ESPN2, ESPNU, Fox Sports 1 or Fox Sports 2, the remaining Big 12 schools drew a median audience of 482,000. BYU drew a median audience of 682,000 from 20 broadcasts on those networks.”

Additionally, BYU’s 2020 game against Coastal Carolina drew 1.212 million viewers on ESPNU. That is the largest audience for an ESPNU game since 2015 and the fifth-largest in the history of the channel. 

“Despite what has been reported, the Big 12 Conference did not receive, nor solicit, an offer from ESPN to renew its current distribution rights contract,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said in a statement Friday night. “Conversations with our media partners take place periodically, however, no formal discussions have taken place regarding rights beyond the current term.”

When it comes to the AAC members being considered, they each come with several perks as well. Houston is the fourth-largest city in the country, and they have played in a few higher-profile matchups in recent years. They actually open against the Big 12’s Texas Tech tomorrow night.

Cincinnati and Orlando are decent-sized cities, and both programs have had enormous success on the national stage in recent years. Cincinnati opens this season as the highest-ranked Group of Five team in the playoff era, and UCF went 13-0 in 2017 and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl. UCF came back from a 21-0 deficit against Boise State last night to win their season opener 36-31.

What will it cost the four potential members to join the Big 12?

The penalties inscribed in the American Athletic Conference’s bylaws are far less harsh than those the Sooners and the Longhorns face. Although the schools have to give 27 months’ notice of their departure, the $10 million flat-fee penalty per school may provide more wiggle room. 

BYU, on the other hand, is currently operating as an independent FBS school. Its other varsity athletic sports compete in the West Coast Conference. It can be brought in as a football-only member as soon as the 2022 season.

On3’s Ashton Pollard contributed to this report.