Big 12 football order of finish prediction: Athlon releases 2024 projections

Big 12 football is set to look a lot different in 2024, and Athlon Sports has released their predictions for the upcoming season. Oklahoma and Texas are gone and four new teams enter the conference as a result of the Pac-12 exodus.

Utah, which comes in with +320 odds to win the Big 12 title in its first season in the league, is the projected winner. Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Kansas round out the top four.

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It’s set to be an exciting season in this new era with a lot of unpredictability due to so many new programs. You can view the full Big 12 football 2024 predictions, according to Athlon Sports, below.

1. Utah Utes

Utah is set to return quarterback Cam Rising in 2024 after he missed all of last season due to a knee injury. He threw for 3,034 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2022 along with 465 yards rushing and six touchdown while leading the Utes to the Pac-12 title.

Utah also finished 13th in total defense and 19th in scoring defense this past season. Defensive ends Logan Fano, Van Fillinger and Connor O’Toole (11 combined sacks) all return to give them a chance to be one of the best units in the conference.

2. Kansas State Wildcats

Avery Johnson flashed his star power at times last season, and now it’s his team to lead. Will Howard transferred to Ohio State to make the starting quarterback position Johnson’s to lose coming off of a spectacular freshman season.

Johnson showed off his rushing ability with 296 yards rushing and seven touchdowns in 2023 and should improve upon those numbers while also getting full passing duties. DJ Giddens also returns after finishing fifth in the Big 12 with 1,226 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns this past season to make this a dangerous Wildcats offense.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys have a Heisman candidate at running back this season with Ollie Gordon. He won the Doak Walker Award after leading the NCAA in rushing this past season with 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns, and should make the Cowboys one of the top offenses in the country.

Gordon was recently arrested on suspicion of DUI, and it’s unclear whether he will face any sort of suspension. OSU also brings back starting quarterback Alan Bowman and its top two receivers from a year ago, so expect this offensive to put up big numbers.

4. Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas has gone from doormat to contender in Big 12 football under coach Lance Leipold. The Jayhawks had not won more than one conference game since 2008 prior to his arrival in 2021, but finished 9-4 (5-4 Big 12) this past season.

KU is set to return quarterback Jalon Daniels this season after he played only three games in 2023 due to injury. He threw for 2.014 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2022 while also rushing for 425 yards and seven touchdowns.

5. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona is coming off of its first 10-win season in a decade but also loses coach Jedd Fisch to Washington. The Wildcats bring in Brent Brennan from San Jose State to replace him after leading the the Spartans to winning records in three of the past four seasons.

Starting quarterback Noah Fifita and star receiver Tetairoa McMillan are also back after connecting for 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns. That should make Arizona one of the top passing attacks on the Big 12, if not the country.

6. West Virginia Mountaineers

The Mountaineers were picked to finish last in the Big 12 football standings in 2023 but surprised by tying for fourth. Now they’re projected sixth according to Athlon and will again look to overperform.

CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White return in the backfield after combining for 1,640 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns this past season. They also bring back defensive back Aubrey Burks after he recorded two interceptions, four passes defended and one forced fumble in 2023.

7. Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State is set to enter its ninth season under coach Matt Campbell and has finished with at least seven wins in sixth of eight years thus far. The new members being introduced represents a chance for the Cyclones to build upon that success.

ISU brings back starting quarterback Rocco Becht as well as well as its top two receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Defensively, do-it-all star Beau Freyler is back after recording 107 tackles, three interceptions and six passes defended this past season.

8. TCU Horned Frogs

TCU went from competing in the national title game in 2022 to failing to reach a bowl game in 2023. That illustrates the up-and-down nature of the Horned Frogs since joining the Big 12 as they’ve reached double digit wins four times but also had five losing records, including last season.

This year TCU will bring back quarterback Josh Hoover and also return leading receiver Savion Williams. Williams recorded 573 yards and four touchdowns on 41 receptions this past season and should be the No. 1 option heading into 2024.

9. Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders have been a popular sleeper the past two seasons and are once again a pick among pundits to shock the Big 12. Tahj Brooks finished second only to Ollie Gordon in rushing yards this past season with 1,538 in addition to 10 touchdowns.

Starting quarterback Behren Morton also returns but two of his top three receivers are gone. However, the addition of Markel Harrison-Pilot, a four-star prospect in the 2023 class, gives optimism the passing game can get going.

10. UCF Knights

The Knights went 6-7 in their first season as a member of the Big 12 with a 3-4 conference record. Interestingly enough three of those wins came over the final four games as they went 3-1 over that span.

UCF returns running back RJ Harvey, who ranked third in the conference with 1,416 yards this past season to go along with 19 catches for 238 yards and a touchdown. The Knights also add former Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson, who brings dual threat ability and threw for 2,107 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2023.

11. Colorado Buffaloes

Deion Sanders and Colorado took the college football world by storm last season after starting out 3-0. Unfortunately, the Buffaloes ended the year 1-7 in their final eight games and failed to reach bowl eligibility.

Quarterback Sheduer Sanders, the son of Deion, will lead the offense after throwing for 3,230 yards and 27 touchdowns to only three interceptions a year ago. Travis Hunter will also be a crucial piece as he plays on both offense and defense after recording three interceptions in addition to 721 yards receiving and five touchdowns across nine games in 2023.

12. Baylor Bears

Baylor is a program that has been a rollercoaster in terms of wins over the past several seasons. The Bears have gone from 10 to one win in the span of three years, and have claimed just nine games in the past two seasons.

Baylor still knows success under coach Dave Aranda after going 12-2 in 2022 and winning the Big 12 football Championship and Sugar Bowl. Former Toldeo quarterback DeQuan Finn transfers in and will lead the offense.

13. Arizona State Sun Devils

The Sun Devils went 3-9 in the Pac-12 this past season but bring back running back Cameron Skattebo. He rushed for 798 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023 while also catching 24 passes for 286 yards and one touchdown.

Transfers Jeff Sims and Sam Leavitt are currently battling it out for the starting quarterback job. Whichever player wins will face the task of helping Arizona State adjust to Big 12 play.

14. BYU Cougars

BYU finished 5-7 in its first season of Big 12 play. The Cougars return leading rusher LJ Martin, who had 518 yards for four touchdowns this past season.

BYU also brings back quarterback Jake Retzlaff. He started the final four games of the season to finish with 648 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions.

15. Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati struggled in its first season of Big 12 football, going just 1-8 in conference play last season. The Bearcats are just two seasons removed from making the College Football Playoff, but now their biggest challenge is fitting in to their new conference.

Corey Kiner is back after rushing for more than 1,000 yards this past season. He should lead a Bearcats offense that will feature a new quarterback in Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby.

16. Houston Cougars

Houston fired Dana Holgorsen after five seasons and is ready to embark on a new era under Willie Fritz. The Cougars won two conference games this past season and return starting quarterback Donovan Smith.

Smith threw for 2,801 yards with 22 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in 2023. He also rushed for 428 yards and six touchdowns, but limiting turnovers will be a major key this season.