Big 12 Order of Finish Prediction: Phil Steele projects conference standings for 2024 college football
The 2024 season brings exciting times to the Big 12, as they expand despite losing two of their best teams, setting up a balanced and competitive picture from top to bottom in the projected standings.
College football magazine mogul Phil Steele is always an authority on the sport, especially when it comes to his preseason predictions. As is typically the case, Steele extensively broke down each conference and ranked every team in each league for this summer’s issue, including the Big 12, of course.
So below, you can see what Phil Steele’s full Big 12 power rankings look like. But be warned, there are two teams ranked second, two ranked fourth, three ranked seventh and three more ranked 10th.
1. Utah
Phil Steele is head over heels for the Utes, who he believes stand head and shoulders above the field in the new-look Big 12. With Cam Rising back in the saddle at quarterback after missing last season, plus 15 total returning starters, Steele sees Utah transitioning from Pac-12 to Big 12 supremacy very quickly.
Steele’s optimism doesn’t end with a Big 12 title, as Phil notes that of his nine sets of power ratings, five call for 11 wins in the regular season for Utah while he rates them near the top of the conference in talent. Plus, Steele rates Utah as his No. 1 “Surprise Team” in college football this season.
2. Kansas State
With half of their starters returning and the third-easiest schedule in the Big 12 per Steele, Chris Klieman’s group is near the very top of the Big 12 projections. Bringing along a new young QB in Avery Johnson and replacing double-digit starters will be challenges, but Kansas State is built to lead the way in the new version of the conference.
Heck, they were built to compete in the old Big 12 and even beat eventual runner-up TCU in the 2022 Big 12 championship game. Two years later, Big 12 glory could be all theirs again, since Steele is quite high on this group.
2. Oklahoma State
Coming in right alongside KSU is Oklahoma State and Big 12 stalwart Mike Gundy, whose Cowboys could be favored if not for a schedule that sends them to Manhattan and welcomes Utah to Stillwater. But those are just chances to score tiebreakers over the other two main Big 12 contenders.
Steele loves to see the Pokes bring back 19 of their starters off a 10-win season that was a bit of a roller coaster. OSU started out 2-2 and lost to South Alabama 33-7 on their home field before firing off seven wins in their final eight games to make the Big 12 title game.
4. Iowa State
Phil Steele notes that between 1979 and 2016, Iowa State only reached the eight-win threshold once. Now, it’s an accomplishment current head coach Matt Campbell has reached in four seasons since then. With a fourth-place projection in a 16-team Big 12, Steele is calling for yet another eight-win year.
Like Oklahoma State, the Cyclones have the pleasure of facing both Kansas State and Utah. However, with 19 starters back and Campbell’s dependability, Steele likes this group to fly under the radar and sneak up pretty high in the Big 12 standings when the dust settles.
4. Arizona
Jedd Fisch split and took a dive into Big Ten life with Washington, but he left behind — and wasn’t able to bring with him — a superb roster of his own in Tucson. Rising superstar QB Noah Fifita was a statistical monster in the back half of last year, and Tetairoa McMillan was as good a pass catcher as there was in the country during that stretch.
Steele believes the new regime can still have the Wildcats in contention in the new Big 12 and predicts them to finish next to Iowa State. Although avoiding the Cyclones, Oklahoma State and Kansas State on their slate is a help, per Steele.
6. West Virginia
Neal Brown seemed like a lame duck at the end of last summer. By wintertime, he was the toast of Morgantown after leading an inspired 9-4 season and 20-point blowout of North Carolina to end his job-saving season with a Duke’s Mayo bath.
In all reality, Steele is higher on the Mountaineers than sixth and he loves the talent in Morgantown, which is why he believes they can contend. However, he has them facing four of those top five teams in the projections while playing zero of his bottom three teams in the Big 12. That’s some tough sledding in those Appalachian Mountains in year one of the new-look league for Brown.
7. TCU
Following a tale of two very different seasons in 2022 and 2023 — one ending in a national championship game appearance, and the other ending with a 5-7 record — Phil Steele has the Horned Frogs back on his “Going Up” list for 2024.
Steele notes TCU got plenty of luck in ’22, not much in ’23, but things ought to even out in ’24. So, with 16 starters back and a solid coach in Sonny Dykes, Steele just doesn’t see the Frogs falling out of the top half of the league.
7. Kansas
From 2-10 to 6-7 to 9-4, Lance Leipold has Kansas on a rocketship trajectory. Phil Steele isn’t prepared to see the Jayhawks win 11 or 12 games in 2024, but he’s confident they can settle consistently in that seven to nine wins range this coming season, finishing in the top half of the Big 12 — still not a very common accomplishment for the program.
For KU, many questions revolve around quarterback Jalon Daniels, a surefire talent who can’t stay healthy. The Jayhawks had a reliable backup in ’22 and ’23, but with him gone, there’s more riding on Daniels’ health than ever. Steele says if he knew Daniels would be healthy all year, he’d have this team higher.
7. UCF
UCF opened up 3-0 last season but proceeded to lose their first five games in the Big 12 in a rough welcome to the league. However, they salvaged a 6-6 regular season record and actually finished at +21 yards per game in conference play vs. their opponents, which Phil Steele finds promising.
With some terrific skill talent still in place and better overall depth, plus the loss of two powerhouses and the addition of many Pac-12 programs, the Knights have an easier schedule to face with their better-built roster.
10. Texas Tech
Texas Tech is a nice middle-of-the-road squad for Phil Steele. He notes that the Red Raiders certainly overachieved in 2022, Joey McGuire’s first season, and came in a bit below expectations in year two, setting up reasonable goals in year three.
Tech does return 14 starters and should be as good or better than last season. Steele believes five conference home games vs. four road games and a very manageable start to the season give the Raiders a path to 8+ wins and a hot start.
10. Baylor
While Lance Leipold’s Kansas is trending up, and Baylor and Dave Aranda appear headed in the opposite way direction. Aranda won the Big 12 title in 2021 as the Bears finished with a record 12 wins that season, but has since produced a 6-7 year in ’22 and then a 3-9 season in ’23 that featured an 0-6 home record against FBS teams.
Obviously, the performance at home must improve or Dave Aranda’s 2021 goodwill may be running out. Meanwhile, Steele sees improvement in their future with a much better roster than a team that finished at the bottom.
10. Cincinnati
Speaking of backward development, Cincinnati is on the wrong escalator, submerging into the bottom of the Big 12 just a couple seasons after becoming the first Group of Five school to make the College Football Playoff. That trend has developed after the Bearcats lost Luke Fickell to Wisconsin and hired Scott Satterfield, who left Louisville a year before they made their first ACC title game.
However, after correctly picking the Bearcats last in the Big 12 last season, Steele calls for a bowl appearance in 2024. He likes UC getting back 15 starters while also missing out on several of the top dogs with their schedule.
13. Colorado
Everyone wants to know what the seer of seers in college football has to comment on the Deion Sanders circus and Colorado. Well, Steele says that he expects improvement and possible bowl contention for Year Two under Sanders.
He notes that the Buffaloes jumped nearly 70 spots in his experience rankings, from the bottom of the barrel to top-50. Meanwhile, he doesn’t find it likely that Colorado will be outgained by 129 yards per game in Big 12 play with a defense that’s at least slightly improved.
14. BYU
Phil Steele says life was much easier on the Cougars before they joined the Big 12. After seasons of 11 and 10 wins in 2020 and 2021, BYU was only able to muster five total wins in 2023 to finish towards the bottom of the league.
Now, the Cougars do get 14 starters back, but the road doesn’t get any easier. Steele has BYU facing four of the five toughest Big 12 opponents this year as they try to scrape by for a bowl game.
15. Arizona State
Arizona State was just dreadful in 2023, beating an FCS school before reeling off six straight losses to open the year, including a nine-turnover frenzy vs. Fresno State which they lost 29-0.
According to Steele, ASU has a roster that’s coming around under head coach Kenny Dillingham. But without much star power, and also the fact they face four of Steele’s top five Big 12 teams, it’s just hard to see the Sun Devils topping last year’s win total by much.
16. Houston
Following a tremendous run at Tulane, Willie Fritz now heads up Houston, and Phil Steele isn’t placing too high of expectations on him in year one, expecting a last-place finish for the Cougars in 2024. Like BYU and Cincy, it’s a fall from double-digit wins outside of the Power 5 (or 4 now) to a below-.500 finish in the Cougars’ first year in the Big 12.
Steele doesn’t see a whole lot of reason to believe in improvement given the further Big 12 expansion and a brand new regime. Plus, he notes the Cougars get five out of nine conference games on the road while facing several of the top teams.