Big 12 Predictions: Projecting conference championship finalists, winner in 2024

The Big 12 Conference, for the second season in a row, has a new look to it. Now, with Texas and Oklahoma officially leaving and four schools entering from the Pac-12.

With all of that in mind, On3’s JD PicKell broke down the Big 12 on The Hard Count. There, he projected the two conference championship finalists and the winner for the 2024 season with College Football Playoff implications on the line.

“The Big 12, I think, is gonna be the most entertaining conference in college football,” PicKell said. “How’s that for you? Literally, anyone can win this conference. Like, you lose Oklahoma, you lose Texas to the SEC, and I think there’s this thought out there that the conference isn’t as talented anymore. I don’t know if that’s true. I just think it’s a very, very small margin between every single team in this conference.”

Coming into the season, Utah and Kansas State are widely considered to be the top contenders in the Big 12. However, it’s a very crowded field.

“Talk about Utah being the favorite to win the conference. Kansas State right there behind them. Arizona has the seventh best odds to win this conference, and they bring back 66 percent production from last year’s squad… and they won 10 football games last year… That, I think, should speak volumes about how difficult this conference will be to win.”

The thought for PicKell is that it’s going to be difficult for the Big 12 to send multiple teams to the College Football Playoff because they’ll likely beat each other up. That also means that there are a large number of teams that are realistically going to compete for the championship.

“The approach I took to it was the groupings of teams and trying to label those groups. So, I think you have a gritty group, which is Iowa State, Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State. And a quarterback group. Quarterback group being teams with quarterbacks that could, quite frankly, just take over in the course of a season…but the quarterback’s like, ‘Hey, I’m him.’ Those teams are UCF, Arizona, Kansas, Colorado is maybe a bit more of a stretch but they have the best quarterback in the conference I believe so we’ll go ahead and put them in that group.”

In essence, the difference between the two groups is that the gritty teams are tough, well-coached, and have good returning production numbers. The quarterback teams, on the other hand, have a player at quarterback who can take over and dominate.

“I think everybody beats up on everybody. I think it’s back and forth. I think you have multiple teams with two to three losses. With that being said, though, I think the most stable, high-floor team we have, is exactly who Vegas says we have. Maybe it’s a little boring, but sometimes boring is eventually the right answer. I think Utah ends up finding their way to the Big 12 title game.”

There are a few reasons for PicKell’s Utah prediction, including a relatively manageable schedule and the return of quarterback Cam Rising. He also likes them over a team like Kansas State because of how young and unproven the Wildcats are on offense.

“In that way, I think you have a team come out of nowhere…I think it’s Texas Tech that finds their way to Jerry World to meet up with Utah and they go dancing in the the house that Jerry built for a conference championship and for a chance to make the College Football Playoff. I will say this, I think Texas Tech shows up in this game with more than one loss.”

Similar to Utah, Texas Tech has a relatively easy Big 12 schedule. That will help. It also helps that the Red Raiders have a talented roster, led by Tahj Brooks, who rushed for 1,538 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.

Despite that, PicKell is picking Utah to win the Big 12 and go on to the College Football Playoff in the Utes’ first season in the conference.

“When it comes to this game, though, it’s tough to go against Utah. It just is,” PicKell said. “Like Cam Rising… all he does as a starting quarterback is win conference titles…So, Utah punches their ticket to the College Football Playoff and they are your Big 12 Champion.”