Big Ten Order of Finish Prediction: Phil Steele projects conference standings for 2024 college football
The Big Ten is now set at 18 teams after their first expansion in a decade has them as big as they’ve ever been as a conference. That should make it one of the most interesting seasons that the league has ever had with the 14 original members getting an injection of west-coast culture.
Ahead of 2024’s kickoff in college football, Phil Steele has once again assessed every team and conference, including the Big Ten. His yearly forecast came with a prediction for the finals standings for the league in their all-new format and look for this season.
Here’s the full look from Steele for how he sees it all ending up this season in the Big Ten:
T-1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State will enter 2024 as one of the top teams in the nation, if not as this year’s preseason No. 1. Much comes with that standing as “the most talented team in the Big Ten and perhaps the country,” though, considering what the expectation is in Columbus.
Breaking a three-game losing streak in The Game, winning a Big Ten Championship, and competing for the College Football Playoff are the unquestionable goals for the 2024Buckeyes, regardless of how lofty they may be. Still, that’s just the territory that they find themselves with a roster that retained and added so many names as 13 of those made one of four Preseason All-Big Ten Teams for Steele.
T-1. Oregon Ducks
Oregon is the highest-rated new team in Big Ten as they sit in a tie with Ohio State at No. 1 according to Steele. That leaves them picking right up where they left off when they departed the Pac-12 with three-straight double-digit win seasons and a 22-5 record over their first two years under Dan Lanning.
The Ducks also added several key pieces in the portal with the top-ranked transfer class in the conference at On3. Their dozen pickups, whether you’re talking about Dillon Gabriel, Evan Stewart, and Jabbar Muhammad, will play a major role in reaching this standard, both in their new conference and nationally, in their debut year elsewhere.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
This is the kind of season that they’ve been waiting for at Penn State. After knocking on the door in the Big Ten East over the last several years, they now have a full conference to work in to try and achieve what they haven’t yet as far as Big Ten Championships or the College Football Playoff.
The Nittany Lions return 13 starters, including several from their 2022 recruiting class in QB Drew Allar, DE Abdul Carter, and RBs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, entering the program’s 11th year under James Franklin. Now it’s only about breaking through as the Big Ten contender many believe them to be.
4. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan, the defending national champions, will enter a new era this season with Sherrone Moore taking the place of Jim Harbaugh. They’ll also have to replace all but seven returning starters after tons of veterans left after the program’s first national title in over a quarter century.
Still, the Wolverines have enough to contend for the Big Ten again in 2024. It’s just a matter of if it comes anywhere close to the last three years with a .928 winning percentage, a trio of conference titles, and three playoff appearances with the one championship victory last season.
5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa will be at it again in their 26th season under Kirk Ferentz. Their defense should remain elite with 10 starters back and the offense can only go up from where it was following an offseason change at offensive coordinator after finishing second-to-last on that side of the football last year.
The Hawkeyes will have to navigate the updated look to the league after dominating competition in the Big Ten West. With that said, more of the same appears to be the expectation for them with offensive output once again being the potential separator.
6. USC Trojans
USC, our second highest-ranked new addition in the Big Ten, ironically is the inverse of Iowa in the spot above them. While we know what the offensive numbers could look like under Lincoln Riley, the defense has to improve after being the worst of his career as a head coach.
The Trojans have a chance to make a new name for themselves as a big brand in this conference. New defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who they hired this offseason from UCLA, could be the difference in doing that off the right foot this fall.
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska is right on schedule based on this projection from Steele. With nearly all of their starters back, he has the Cornhuskers, his second-most improved team, making their first bowl appearance in eight years.
In Year One under Matt Rhule, the Cornhuskers went 5-7 with five of the losses being by a touchdown or less and four by just a field goal. That’s a solid foundation to predict an upward development from, especially considering what Year Two has looked like at his other two collegiate programs.
8. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Last year was Rutger’s first winning finish since their first season in the Big Ten back in 2014. They could now go back-to-back in that sense based on this preseason prognosis from Steele.
To him, the Scarlet Knights will pair their “best team since (Greg Schiano) returned” with having “the league’s best schedule.” That could lead to consecutive winning seasons for Rutgers, a first in the dozen years since they left the Big East.
9. Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin enters their second season under Luke Fickell after struggling a bit in year one at 7-6. However, 2024 might have more of the same for them up in Madison.
While Steele predicts a better team for the Badgers, their conference slate and a non-conference game against Alabama give him pause. That’s why he thinks that they “probably won’t contend until next year when the schedule is more favorable.”
10. Maryland Terrapins
Maryland could be a potential sleeper team in the Big Ten in 2024, according to Steele. They’re coming off a third-straight winning season, including the last two at 8-5, as they begin Year Six under Mike Locksley.
With the end of divisions, the Terrapins will have to adjust to life outside the Big Ten East where they found themselves behind three of the league’s best. Still, with their recent resumé, Maryland could continue to make their own success in College Park.
11. Washington Huskies
Washington, last season’s national championship runner-up, does not look anything like they did a year ago. Jedd Fisch is in at head coach, replacing Kalen DeBoer, QB Micheal Penix Jr. is off to the NFL, and only six starters from last season return amidst all the changes in Seattle.
“A vastly different looking roster” also drew “the Big Ten’s toughest schedule” to Steele. That could lead to a significant drop to start this new tenure after the Huskies went 25-3 over the last two seasons.
12. Indiana Hoosiers
After three straight losing seasons at 9-27 (.250) to end the tenure of Tom Allen, Indiana is now on to Curt Cignetti. Cignetti spend the last five years at James Madison and led the Dukes to a 52-9 record, including a mark of 19-4 (.826) over the last two years in what was their program’s first pair in the FBS.
The Hoosiers lost 38 players to the portal while also bringing 30 of their own for a Top-15 transfer class at On3. Pair that with their returning core and Steele does have them earning a bowl berth in Cignetti’s first year in Bloomington this fall.
13. Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois has had an up and down three seasons under Bret Bielema at 5-7 in 2021, 8-5 in 2022, and back to 5-7 in 2023. Still, Steele has them trending back up with where he’s projecting them in 2024.
Steele wrote that “most indicators are pointing up” and that “they should get back to a bowl” when previewing the Fighting Illini. That’d be a nice reward for them, even if it’d only keep Bielema around .500 or so through four years in Champaign.
14. UCLA Bruins
UCLA, the lowest-ranked of the four new programs in the Big Ten, underwent a somewhat unexpected coaching change with Chip Kelly joining a now-conference opponent as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. That leaves DeShaun Foster, the team’s associate head coach, running backs coach, and a former player in LA, as their nee leader.
With that said, it could be a difficult first year of this tenure, especially compared to their record of 25-23 of the past three years. “A drop in the win-total this year” is the expectation for Steele too based on how he views the circumstances in Hollywood, specifically since he has their schedule as the second-toughest in the country.
15. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota has been consistently competitive over seven seasons under P.J. Fleck. They’ve gone 50-34 in his time there with three years of nine wins or more.
That consistency, even if the they towards of the back in the Big Ten, is what Steele is leaning on. With the Golden Gophers having “his most complete team” yet, Steele predicts they’ll be “finishing higher than expected,” and “could be back in a bowl” in 2024.
16. Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern was a shocker last season considering all things. They went 1-11 in 2022, fired Pat Fitzgerald going into last season due to an offseason scandal, and then gave the program to David Braun not long before kickoff.
Still, the Wildcats found their way by going 8-5 in ’23 for their best finish in a half decade. Now, while many might expect a step back, Steele is “not betting against Braun” as he enters Year Two in Evanston.
T-17. Purdue Boilermakers
After Purdue went 17-10 over their last two seasons under Jeff Brohm, 2023 didn’t go very well in their first year under Ryan Walters. They finished at just 4-8 with an opening loss to Fresno State and their other seven defeats being by an average of 18.4 points.
With that said, Steele still projects a potential slight improvement for the Boilermakers. He may have them tied for last in the league but he added that “most indicators are pointing up” for them for ’24.
T-17. Michigan State Spartans
Jonathan Smith is taking over one of the bigger projects in the Big Ten at Michigan State. The scandal involving Mel Tucker and his firing happened in the middle of a season where they went 4-8 and then led to losing 36 players to the portal.
Smith’s resumé in Corvallis, specifically the last two seasons, suggests that he could bring the same to the Spartans. Still, while Steele has some indications trending up for them too, it may not lead to early success there considering all the changes there as well as their upcoming schedule.