Big Ten Stock Report: Who's up, who's down heading into Week 2?
The Big Ten has five teams in the top 15 of the AP Poll this week: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 7 Oregon, No. 8 Penn State, No. 10 Michigan and No. 13 USC.
The Ducks and Wolverines looked vulnerable in Week 1. The Nittany Lions and Trojans looked dangerous. And the Buckeyes are still the favorite to win the league.
Overreactions are common after Week 1. Then again, it’s hard to tell at this point of the year what’s actually an overreaction.
It’s important to take stock anyway. That’s what we’ll be doing every week at On3. Here’s the first Big Ten “Stock Report,” leading up to Week 2.
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STOCK UP
1. USC DEFENSE
No quarterback was going to fill the shoes of Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. Miller Moss didn’t have to replicate Williams’ Houdini act for the Trojans to enjoy a successful transition to the Big Ten. They had to get better defensively, though. That was a must.
So far, so good: D’Anton Lynn coordinated a UCLA defense that was stout against the run in 2023. In fact, the Bruins were second nationally last year with 80.77 rushing yards per game allowed. In Lynn’s first game leading the USC defense, the Trojans gave up only 113 yards on the ground to an LSU team that came into the season publicly confident in its ability to run the football with a well-respected O-Line. In part thanks to a standout performance from linebacker Eric Gentry — who finished with five solo tackles, two TFLs and a pass break-up — USC impressed with physicality in its 27-20 win.
2. PENN STATE OC ANDY KOTELNICKI
The Penn State offense moved on from Mike Yurcich midseason last year. The Nittany Lions were hungry for more offensive explosion. That’s why they brought in coordinator Andy Kotelnick this offseason. Part of the Kansas revival, Kotelnicki is hoping to complement a top-tier Penn State defense with a equally powerful offense. He’s got the quarterback in place to make that happen.
Drew Allar proved that last week against West Virginia. For the second year in a row, Allar diced up the Mountaineers, once again tossing three touchdowns. This time, though, he also ran the ball six times for 44 yards. Allar completed 2-of-3 passes traveling 20-plus air yards, according to Pro Football Focus. Penn State piled up four plays of at least 40 yards from scrimmage in the 34-12 victory. They had eight such plays all last season.
3. NEBRASKA QB DYLAN RAIOLA
OK, now the proof is in the pudding. The creativity to make off-platform throws from different arm slots? Check. The ability to make the correct calls at the line of scrimmage? Check. A head-turning deep ball? Check. Granted Nebraska was playing UTEP in its opener, but the debut of Dylan Raiola lived up to the hype. He beat out Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith for Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors after completing 70.4% of his passes and throwing for 238 yards and two scores in less than three quarters of action.
Raiola, a former five-star prospect and Elite 11 finalist, connected on 8-of-12 throws traveling 20 or more yards through the air, per PFF. Nebraska won, 40-7, and the Cornhuskers faithful are feeling good heading into a rivalry rematch with Colorado in Lincoln.
STOCK DOWN
1. OREGON OFFENSIVE LINE
There isn’t any other way to spin it: The Oregon offensive line was surprisingly bad against FCS Idaho last week. Despite returning three starters up front, the Ducks allowed three sacks. For reference, they gave up five sacks throughout a 14-game 2023 campaign. What’s more, Oregon averaged a meager 2.9 yards per carry in a 24-14 win.
Dillon Gabriel had to throw the ball 49 times for Oregon to score 24 points and get out of Week 1 with a win. Gabriel’s average depth of target was just 4.5 yards, according to PFF, which clocked his average time to throw on all dropbacks at 2.18 seconds. Gabriel normally gets the ball out quick, except not that quick. Oregon’s O-Line has a chance to bounce back this week against a Boise State defense that allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern last week.
2. MICHIGAN QB SITUATION
Davis Warren emerged as Michigan’s starting quarterback last week. Warren’s story is a great one: In high school, he overcame cancer and then saw the pandemic throw a wrench in his senior season. After joining the Wolverines as a preferred walk-on and then waiting in the wings for three years, Warren finally got his shot this offseason. He made the most of the opportunity, beating out Alex Orji for QB1. Warren’s debut, however, wasn’t quite as inspiring as his winding journey. He averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt, throwing for 118 yards, one touchdown and a pick on 15-of-25 passing.
On one hand, Warren dialed up an 18-yard score to tight end Colston Loveland to help seal the win. On the other hand, he was intercepted early while throwing downfield for wideout Fredrick Moore. It wasn’t until well into the fourth quarter that the Wolverines created separation in a 30-10 victory. Orji played a role, similar to the one he had last year. But Warren is the starter for now. Maybe he’s the next walk-on-turned-star. He probably doesn’t need to be for Michigan to win a bunch of games. That said, he has to better going forward — and fast because Texas is coming to The Big House this week.
3. MICHIGAN STATE REBUILD
Jonathan Smith is a great offensive mind. When he was the OC at Washington, he conducted a top-10 scoring offense that helped the Huskies reach the College Football Playoff in 2016. In each of his final two seasons as Oregon State’s head coach, the Beavers featured top-40 offenses, including a unit that tied for 35th with 31.8 points per game in 2023.
Now the head coach of Michigan State, Smith could have a bit of a wait before his Spartans teams are in the top third in the FBS in scoring. MSU scored only 16 points in a sloppy, 16-10 victory over FAU last week. The Spartans turned the ball over three times and were shut out in the second half. Oregon State transfer Aidan Chiles struggled with only 10 completions on 24 attempts, not to mention his two picks. Fortunately for Smith, he might have a solid running back duo in UMass transfer Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter. It’s early, but if Week 1 was any indication, the Smith rebuild could take a minute.