Billy Napier, D.J. Lagway and the new quarterback economics of 2024

When Florida coach Billy Napier discussed how — or whether — the Gators might use freshman quarterback D.J. Lagway this season while taking questions at SEC Media Days, the mind immediately jumped to 2006. 

Not the end result of the 2006 season for Florida. That was a national title. This schedule plus this roster don’t make that outcome likely, but the QB situation feels quite familiar.

There’s a capable, established senior starter who understands the offense completely. That was Chris Leak in 2006 and Graham Mertz now.

There’s a freshman whose recruitment was followed breathlessly by the fanbase and who might indeed be a generational talent. D.J. Lagway, the freshman this year, probably has walked past Tim Tebow’s statue often since arriving on campus in January.

Plus, those two players have somewhat different skill sets, which could allow the freshman to have a clearly defined role even as the senior runs the offense. So could Napier and company mimic what Urban Meyer and coordinator Dan Mullen did with Leak and Tebow? Could they create a role for Lagway that allows him to play early while still letting Mertz handle the heavy lifting?

Now for the 2024 twist.

Napier probably doesn’t have a choice but to do exactly that because of a dynamic that didn’t exist in 2006. Zach Abolverdi of On3’s Gators Online pointed this out during a Monday visit on Andy Staples On3. Lagway, according to conversations with people familiar with the numbers, has the largest NIL package of any of Florida’s players. That applies a different level of pressure for him to contribute right away.

Tebow played as a freshman because he could be relied upon at first as a devastating short-yardage back. But Meyer didn’t need to use him. If Tebow’s skill set had been more similar to Leak’s, Tebow probably would have played only in mop-up duty in blowouts. But because he did have something to offer immediately, he was bulldozing on fourth-and-1 in Knoxville.

Napier probably is coaching for his job this season. He would love to be in Gainesville to coach Lagway the QB1 in future years. Given the current transfer rules, there is no guarantee that Florida has Lagway in 2025 and beyond if it decides to move on from Napier. For the people writing the checks that pay Lagway’s — sorry, NCAA, but this is what it is — salary this year, that investment could evaporate. So will they want to see him on the field sooner rather than later?

This is a thorny question. While the readiness of freshman QBs has evolved in the past 20 years to make it easier to play them quickly, it hasn’t changed as rapidly as college football’s player compensation and movement rules have in the past four years. Some players still need time. Throwing a QB who isn’t quite ready in against elite defenses such as some of the ones on Florida’s schedule can break the player and keep him from ever reaching his full potential.

The dynamic is similar to the one that unfolded in Knoxville last season. Joe Milton was the veteran who had played in the offense. Nico Iamaleava was the freshman with the market-setting NIL deal. Volunteers coach Josh Heupel never pulled Milton in favor of Iamaleava. The youngster didn’t start until Tennessee’s bowl game.

But after watching Iamaleava in that 35-0 win against Iowa and comparing his performance to what Milton gave the Vols down the stretch, the question asked on pretty much every barstool in the Volunteer State went like this: “Should Heupel have started Nico sooner?”

Heupel didn’t have to worry about whether the answer to that question would cost him his job, though. He’d earned plenty of goodwill in his first two seasons at Tennessee. He knew he’d have a 2024 season with Iamaleava. Napier doesn’t have that level of security.

While the circumstances are different, Oklahoma’s Brent Venables and Kansas State’s Chris Klieman also will be judged this season for how they managed this new QB dynamic. Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma) and Avery Johnson (Kansas State) weren’t forced into starting roles early in their freshman seasons last year. Those two came with the same elevate-the-program hype that Lagway brings to Florida. Venables only used Arnold when starter Dillon Gabriel got hurt during the regular season. Klieman tried a rotation with starter Will Howard and Johnson mid-season, but Howard was back taking most of the snaps after a few games. 

But once the regular season ended last year, Oklahoma and Kansas State made their choices clear. Arnold and Johnson were the future. Gabriel and Howard were out. 

Now Gabriel will start for Oregon. Howard will start for Ohio State. They might duel for the Big Ten title, and it feels likely that both players take their teams to the 12-team College Football Playoff. They may wind up competing for the Heisman Trophy as well. The same dynamic pushing on Lagway in Gainesville pushed those players from Norman and Manhattan.

If Arnold and/or Johnson don’t live up to the hype and Gabriel and/or Howard excels, those coaches will feel the wrath of their fans. But they didn’t have a real choice. The market forces that didn’t exist prior to 2021 forced their hands. 

As strange as it sounds, it’s probably easier to sit in a hyped rookie QB in the NFL now than it is to sit a hyped freshman QB in college. The NFL’s collective bargaining agreement has a rookie salary scale. The new guy never comes in as the highest paid player on the team. That makes it easier for the Chiefs to let Patrick Mahomes sit behind Alex Smith for a season or for the Packers to let Jordan Love sit behind Aaron Rodgers for three seasons.

That wasn’t always the case. Early in this century, rookies could negotiate their deals. That’s how Sam Bradford got a $78 million contract with $50 million guaranteed in 2010 from the Rams. He walked in as the team’s highest paid player with expectations to match. That contract — and others like it — caused the rookie salary scale to be negotiated into the next CBA.

But if the schools and the NCAA have their way, there will be no CBA in college football. They’re fighting tooth and nail to ensure players aren’t deemed employees. So that means the new dynamics will remain. While the best teams will spend the most to retain older impact players, teams like Florida that are desperate to get back to that level will either have to overspend in the transfer market or try spending big on freshmen, most likely at quarterback and on the offensive and defensive lines.

With that spending will come pressure for those players to contribute immediately. 

At Florida, Mertz only has one more season of eligibility. There won’t have to be any difficult decisions if he does have an excellent season. It’ll merely help his draft stock. And Mertz has shown during his time in Gainesville that he’s comfortable enough in his own skin that he can handle any awkwardness that the new salary dynamics might bring.

Florida’s QB situation will be fascinating to watch. It looks so much like the situation in 2006, but the reality of college football in 2024 makes it far more complex.