Billy Napier insists Florida is 'on schedule,' so if true, a proof of concept needs to bare fruit in Year 3

DALLAS — Billy Napier has a bit of an aw shucks, Southern charm that he smartly uses to disarm reporters. There’s something about a wry smile and a strong handshake. So some seven minutes into a scrum with local and national media Wednesday at SEC Media Days, Florida’s embattled head coach had yet to be asked the question we were all there to see what he’d say.

I like Napier. I understand the challenges and constant changes he inherited, but this is a big-boy business, so I fired away. 

There’s been a lot of outside noise surrounding your job security and where things stand (with the Gators), but you’ve exuded a quiet confidence over the last six months every time I’ve been around you. How has that trickled down to your team as y’all enter fall camp?

Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on this Billy Napier answer to @JesseReSimonton's question.

(Included the whole thing so you have all the context.)

Do you think Florida is "on schedule?" pic.twitter.com/3FTkAkMTZJ

— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) July 17, 2024

What I did not expect was for Napier to answer the question like the Wizard of Oz with a “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” response. 

“Change doesn’t happen overnight,” he said. 

“I think ultimately timing is everything. When we took the job, what we inherited, the work that needed to be done. We’re on schedule to some degree.”

Head snap. 

Using what protractor?

Napier knows the whole world can see his 11-14 record in two seasons with the Gators, right? 

Florida has lost close games (5-6 in one-score affairs), blowouts and rivalries (in 2022 they were the first Gators team to lose to Tennessee, LSU, Georgia and FSU in the same season). They’ve self-immolated on special teams and underwhelmed defensively. Even Napier’s greatest strength — recruiting — hasn’t borne the fruit that was promised (zero Top 10 classes)

And yet, Napier can confidently deliver such a response because of everything we can’t see that’s happened within his program since a disappointing 2023 season.  

“Should we have won a couple games down the stretch? Would I have liked to have closed some of those games out in the fourth quarter? Absolutely,” he told me. 

“But the reality is, from a system standpoint, a process standpoint, in house, the culture, I think we’ve made tremendous progress. 

“This offseason in particular, after observing things for two years, we made some changes that I think have really made a difference with our team. So I’m with our team everyday, so I think ultimately, that’s why I have confidence (entering Year 3).”

Patience vs. Progress for Billy Napier

Florida has three straight losing seasons for the first time since World War II. It hasn’t won the SEC in 16 years. The once mighty, mighty Gators have suddenly receded closer to the bottom of the SEC than the top. 

And yet, Napier insists Florida is ready to bite back — even with perhaps the nation’s most daunting schedule this season. 

This offseason, Napier overhauled his defensive staff, changed his strength & conditioning program and dipped into the portal for more roster upgrades (notables include Arizona State wideout Elijah Badger and Washington safety Asa Turner). 

“I like our team. I believe in our team,” he said.

Florida’s head coach came armed to SEC Media Days with a notebook full of stats with reasons why his team might be better than the prognosticators believe. He cited quarterback Graham Mertz’s experience. He made sure to mention his team’s 17 returning starters and over 41,000 snaps. He highlighted their weight room gains with “500 pounds of lean muscle.”

“For the first time, we’ve got some stability. The roster has stabilized,” Napier said. 

“We’ve got competitive depth. There’s incredible leadership at the player level.”

But will all that materialize into more wins in 2024? 

Florida fans are naturally impatient. They’re among the best in the nation when the going’s good, but they aren’t the type — like Tennessee or South Carolina — to keep fervently showing up to the Swamp to watch a bunch of Ls. 

There’s a growing apathy in Gainesville that’s dangerous for Napier — even if he’s correct that his blueprint his “on schedule to some degree.” 

He knows he needs to win now— especially in a NIL world that’s key to talent acquisition — but what does that look like against a schedule that includes eight preseason Top 25 teams?

Progress is measured in all forms in college football. The Gators don’t want to fire a well-liked coach and be in the market for a new one for the fifth time since 2011! But improvement is necessary. Perhaps even stark improvement. 

Much like Dorothy wasn’t in Kansas anymore, Napier isn’t at Louisiana-Lafayette, so while he showed a proof of concept with the Cajuns, that same plan needs to come to fruition this fall at Florida. Unfairly or not, he has to prove he’s the right coach for the Gators, or else he risks his schedule being freed up in 2025. 

“We’re close,” Napier said, optimistically. 

“We’ve been working to get in position to prove ourselves, and this schedule presents every opportunity to do that.”