How starting Graham Mertz over DJ Lagway could be 'catastrophic mistake' for Billy Napier at Florida

Last week, Florida got a potential glimpse at the future after Graham Mertz’s Week 1 injury. Freshman DJ Lagway got the start against Samford and lived up to the billing in the 45-7 victory.

Now, Billy Napier faces a potential decision since Mertz was not listed on Wednesday’s availability report ahead of Week 3 against Texas A&M. He could go back to Mertz, who’s in his second year with the program after transferring from Wisconsin, or he could go with the true freshman in Lagway and help him build on his performance last week.

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For Napier, it could be a make-or-break move. And to On3’s Ari Wasserman, it should also be simple – Lagway should start instead of Mertz to avoid a “catastrophic mistake.”

“I think that we are in a position, especially if you’re a Florida fan, where it’s not so much about the individual losses and wins on the season,” Wasserman said on The Paul Finebaum Show Thursday. “I think that we know by and large what Florida is and what it’s going to be. It’s whether or not Billy Napier can take a situation where they’re growing dangerously close to apathy and trying to create some optimism, to get these fans to think, ‘Hey, we’re moving in the right direction,’ or to get them to see that things can be pretty exciting if they keep the band back together next year with DJ Lagway. So I don’t know what his actual mission is. I know, obviously, it’s to win football games. But I think it’s bigger than that.

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“I don’t think in a month from now, if they beat A&M by one, then everything’s going to be different. The only way everything’s gonna be different is if they do it with the kid. I’m very excited to see what he does with the quarterback position. Andy and I both think that Graham Mertz is going to start, which is a catastrophic mistake. But then, on the other side of the ball … if A&M loses this game somehow, you’re gonna have an entire week of meltdown mode on the other side of it. So it’s an exciting game and that’s kind of what makes college football great.”

How Billy Napier could show ‘proof of concept’ with DJ Lagway

Lagway shined in his first career start against Samford. He completed 18 of 25 passes for 456 yards and three touchdowns as the Gators defeated the Bulldogs 45-7. It was his second collegiate appearance after replacing Mertz, who left the season-opening loss to Miami with an injury.

But as the pressure continues to ramp up around Napier – especially considering Florida’s tough schedule – Lagway could help provide hope for the future. If the coach wants to keep his job, Wasserman argued playing the freshman would be the right move.

“Here’s my perspective on it. Whenever we get to a point where we’re doing the week-by-week ‘Hot Seat/Fired Watch’ thing, we get ultra-fixated on wins and losses as if the score hasn’t already been set or that the story hasn’t already been told,” Wasserman said. “The problem isn’t the win-and-loss situation. It’s that a team that could’ve been flipped in Year 1 and wasn’t, and could’ve been improved drastically in the first two years of his tenure there going into Year 3, could be a completely different football team and it’s not. So from my standpoint, what do you have to gain by playing Graham Mertz? What does putting him out there, even in a win, do to change the ultimate circumstance of this football team – which is, it’s not very good.

“So, if you want to change the sentiment or do what you can to keep people engaged and have something to grab on to, I would play the young, talented person at the quarterback position that has a chance to be a dynamic lightning bolt that gets people excited. Because I don’t know that winning a game by one or by five or even by 10 over Texas A&M at home is gonna save your job. What I do think can save your job is some sort of proof of concept to people of like, ‘Hey, we got this guy on campus. We need another year for him to get into his own,’ and something to latch on to.”

Florida’s struggles haven’t just been wins and losses

Since hiring Napier in 2022, Florida has a 12-15 overall record and a 6-10 mark in SEC play. The Gators also made a bowl game in his first year, but missed out on Bowl Season in 2023 by finishing 5-7.

But the on-field struggles are just one part of the struggles over the last three seasons, according to Wasserman. He also pointed out the way Florida dropped down the recruiting rankings during the 2024 cycle. The Gators went from No. 8 to No. 16 in the On3 Industry Team Recruiting Ranking over just a few hours. UF eventually finished with the No. 10-ranked class in the nation.

Although Lagway and LJ McCray ended up signing with UF as the top players in the class, the amount of decommitments raised questions. To Wasserman, that’s an important part of defining Napier’s tenure.

“I think the biggest portion of this whole thing that we’re not discussing when it comes to Billy Napier is that he had a top-five recruiting class last year heading into National Signing Day, and it fell apart,” Wasserman said. “I mean, they had like six de-commitments in the last month of the season that were all top-150 players that aren’t on that roster right now.

“So I think that it’s very easy to get bogged down with individual wins and losses when you get to this point in the season, but like, what are we actually talking about here? It’s Florida’s not very good, they should be much better than they are, and we need to give somebody something to hope for.”