Birmingham Bowl point spread: Picking Troy Trojans vs. Duke Blue Devils

The 2023 college football bowl season is here, and On3’s Andy Staples just revealed his picks and predictions for the upcoming slate of games. On Monday’s episode of the Andy Staples On3 Podcast, Staples broke down all of his picks and brought on his special guest — a coin flip — to provide a counterbalance.

One of the games that was “discussed” is the Birmingham Bowl between the Troy Trojans and Duke Blue Devils on Saturday, December 23. ESPN’s matchup predictor favors the ACC’s Blue Devils over the Sun Belt’s Alabama native Trojans. And Staples doesn’t exactly agree with the sports juggernauts prediction machine.

How to watch Troy vs. Duke

Time: Dec. 23, 12 p.m. EST
Channel: ABC, or ESPN+, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)

“I know what you’re thinking: ‘Duke is a 7.5-point underdog to Troy?’ Now, remember, both of these teams lost their coach. Jon Sumrall from Troy he’s off to Tulane. Mike Elko from Duke [is] obviously off Texas A&M. But Duke lost Riley Leonard. That’s the big one,” said Staples.

Troy and Duke’s Birmingham Bowl matchup will feature two of the better defenses in college football this season. Duke finished the year tied for No. 22 in the nation in points allowed, giving up just 19.8 points per contest. Troy was slightly better in that category, finishing 10th in the nation, allowing 17.2 points per contest.

Troy enters this bowl game showdown with an 11-2 record and is currently riding a 10-game-winning streak. Duke, on the other hand, picked up seven wins and five losses in the Power-5’s ACC.

Troy quarterback Gunnar Watson, a six-year super senior quarterback, was lights out for the Trojans. The Butler, GA, native finished 2023, completing 247 of his 304 passing attempts or 61.3 percent of his passes for 3,339 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just five interceptions.

While the Blue Devils are favored to win, this matchup could prove to be more difficult than previously anticipated when the game was announced. Duke will be without Leonard as he elected to enter the NCAA transfer portal earlier in the month and is now headed to Notre Dame. Along with missing their former star quarterback, the Blue Devils will be without Elko, their former head coach. Elko accepted the head coaching position at Texas A&M and will lead the Aggies next season in the grueling SEC conference, as Staples mentioned above. And that is why he is riding with Troy in this one.

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“Now, Riley Leonard wasn’t there all season, either. He was injured at times. But the difference between Duke with and Duke without Riley Leonard was pretty stark. And Troy’s pretty good on both lines of scrimmage. So, I am gonna go with the Trojans in this game.”