Boise State's Malachi Nelson is the latest lesson in evaluating 5-star quarterbacks

In the last 10 years, the recruiting industry has become a much more successful ecosystem when it comes to evaluating, scouting and predicting a prospect’s outcome or future. 

There’s better data. Better scouting. Better analysis. The entire process is more informed, analytical and transparent. 

And yet as we see just about every cycle, evaluating 5-star quarterbacks remains almost a coin-flip proposition. 

The most important position is particularly hard to predict. 

Malachi Nelson is simply the latest example. 

On Sunday, Boise State announced that Maddux Madsen, a semi-incumbent who played in nine games in 2023 for the Broncos, won the QB1 derby against USC transfer Malachi Nelson. 

The race’s outcome wasn’t particularly surprising for those reading the tea leaves in Boise since the spring, but it still warranted national attention because of Nelson’s prospects as a high school recruit. 

The former Los Alamitos (Ca.) standout was the No. 1 overall player in the 2023 cycle, according to ESPN. Nelson was a consensus 5-star recruit by every service, including On3, which notably did have him ranked the lowest (30th overall) of all the services. 

The wiry 6-3, 195-pound quarterback was comp’d to the likes of Marcus Mariota, who won a Heisman Trophy and was the No. 2 overall pick, and Jordan Love, who was a 1st Round pick that is now making over $50 million annually. Nelson committed to Lincoln Riley and the Trojans with the expectation he would be the heir apparent to Caleb Williams. 

Only, his career has yet to take flight. 

Nelson struggled as an enrollee with USC, dealing with a labrum issue that setback the start of his career and then failing to win the backup job and playing just four snaps all season. In December, Riley didn’t even throw up a Monopoly stop sign when rumors of Nelson’s potential transfer first leaked, effectively moving on from the 5-star quarterback in less than 12 months. 

On the surface that seems crazy, right? 

Add in the fact that Nelson — who a year prior had offers from every school in the country — only garnered tepid interest from Power 4 programs, opted to transfer to a Group of 5 power and then couldn’t even beat out a quarterback ranked 83rd at his position, per On3, in 2022, his fall from grace seems historic. 

Well, it’s not, really. 

As is the case with most other positions, the hit-rate with 5-star quarterbacks has improved over time, but there are still a slew of examples over the last decade — dating back to 2013 class all the way up to the most recent cycle with Nelson — of 5-star quarterbacks going bust. 

“Quarterback is the most unique position in sports, and thus it’s the most unique position in evaluating talent — and I think that goes for all levels — in high school to college and college to the NFL,” said On3’s Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power, one of the premiere talent evaluators ever in modern recruiting.

“Over the course of history, the hit-rate at both levels is sub-50%, especially when you’re looking at the top (guys). As it pertains to high school prospects going into college, the industry has gotten much better at tabbing top quarterback prospects over the past 20 years. 

“But for every Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence, you know 5-stars who become Top-5 picks, there are 5-star prospects who fail to live up to that lofty billing out of high school. It is rare that a 5-star quarterback are unable to start in college or go undrafted. It’s a position where there’s so many factors that’s difficult to pinpoint. Quarterback is such a mental position, There’s only so much kind of projection and information you can have at your fingertips.”

The hit-rate of 5-star quarterbacks over the last 10 years

Nelson was one of five 5-star quarterbacks, per On3, in the 2023 cycle. Arch Manning is waiting in the wings at Texas, while Dante Moore had an up-and-down season at UCLA before transferring for a reset year at Oregon. Then there’s Nico Iamalaeva and Jackson Arnold, two guys who have garnered significant buzz entering their redshirt freshmen seasons. 

All of those quarterbacks have at least started a game or in Manning’s case, has strong believers across the country. 

That’s not how the market viewed Nelson this offseason, and his stock has only furthered declined when he failed to win a job many expected was his to grab. Meanwhile, guys ranked well below Nelson — like Avery Johnson, Aiden Chiles and LaNorris Sellers are all positioned to start at Power 4 programs in Year 2. 

Powers believes he knows why — and in hindsight thinks Nelson could be a strong learning lesson for the industry moving forward when it comes to evaluating 5-star signal-callers. 

“Quarterback recruiting and evaluations in college are now extremely accelerated. Now, probably more than ever, colleges are making decisions on which quarterbacks to recruit and priories oftentimes after their sophomore year of high school. If you look at the 2026 cycle, the majority of the top quarterbacks are already committed,” Powers explained. 

“That timeline doesn’t necessarily dovetail with the development you see really over the last year of high school. From our experience, a quarterback’s senior season is the best indicator of what type of player that prospect is going to be at the college level. Well, colleges, due to the accelerated timeline and the scarcity and nature of the recruiting marketplace, have to make these decisions earlier and earlier, which leads to a hit-rate that’s not ideal. We as media evaluators have the luxury of baking in the senior season.

“There’s lot of moving parts that make the evaluation of quarterback unique. Nelson was in the Top 5 for nearly everyone coming out of his sophomore season. He slid back in the On3 rankings and ended up as a low 5-star for us and that was based off the senior year. If we could go back and do it over, there were some quarterbacks behind him who have since gone on to earn starting jobs who had better senior seasons. Who were ascending players. Who were, at that point, better players than Malachi Nelson as a senior in high school. That’s something we can learn from even though he did move down a little for us and ended up as a low 5-star. It serves to show that you have to be willing and fluid to adjust to what you’re seeing as it unfolds in real time.”

In the last decade, at least four 5-star quarterbacks can be fairly labeled duds.

2013 — USC’s Max Browne, one of two 5-stars that cycle who barely played for the Trojans.

2014 — Texas A&M’s Kyle Allen, again one of two 5-stars that year. Allen had middling success initially but was later benched, then transferred to Houston and again lost his job.

2015 — Alabama’s Blake Barnett, once again one of two 5-stars that class.

2017 — Clemson’s Hunter Johnson

The 2016 class featured a pair of 5-stars who transferred — Shea Patterson and Jacob Eason — but had varying degrees of success at multiple schools. Same for 2019 with Spencer Rattler and Bo Nix. 

The 2018 class was famously historic with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields competing for championships. JT Daniels didn’t live up to expectations but he doesn’t qualify for a dud, either. 

It’s too early to declare either way for several guys in recent cycle, but the early signs aren’t great for Sam Huard and Ty Thompson (both 2021) or Ty Simpson or Devin Brown (2022). Perhaps Simpson and Brown could find success at another school next year. That’s certainly the hope for 2021 5-star Brock Vandagriff this season at Kentucky. 

So maybe Nelson gets his career on track and bucks the trend of at least one (or more) 5-star whiff at quarterback almost every cycle. He’s still very early in his career and he clearly has talent (accuracy, crisp motion, high football IQ) that made him a consensus top-flight prospect. 

But as Power explained, evaluating the most premium position in sport remains extremely difficult — and for now, it’s not exactly getting any easier. Simply put, there’s no perfect system for predicting a quarterback’s overall future. 

“You look at the number of P4 seats available, the number of G5 starting jobs, over four or five classes of players, in addition to the extra years we have with the COVID eligibility, it’s harder and harder now to be a starting quarterback than any point in history of college football. Then you factor in added eligibility and the transfer portal and it can create a meritocracy to a degree. It also makes it harder to start as a freshman because colleges have the ability to go get an experienced quarterback out of the portal,” Powers said. 

“There’s just a lot of moving parts that make the situation of (evaluating) quarterbacks unique now. But based off what we’ve learned, the senior season is really the best indicator of what type of player you’re going to get in college — it just doesn’t dovetail with the recruiting timeline in college.”