Bold predictions: Michigan takes CFP No. 1 seed, Deion Sanders, Colorado go bowling, hot seat speculation
The calendar flipped to October this week, with many college football teams set to play their sixth game of the year — marking the halfway point of the 2023 season.
Exiting September, we don’t know everything about these teams, coaches and players, but we know a lot more than we did in the preseason.
So let’s take a bit of a reset and make some predictions (some bolder than others) about the rest of the 2023 season.
I think … Michigan will be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff
The Wolverines have played the nation’s No. 112 schedule thus far, and I don’t care. It doesn’t matter if they play a Big Ten team, an AAC team, a Mountain West team or a MAC team. Every result is the same.
Michigan, by a lot. Opponent, with a touchdown or less (almost always against backups in the 4th quarter, too).
It’s the most outstanding defense the Wolverines have had under Jim Harbaugh, and JJ McCarthy is his best QB as well. With Blake Corum getting healthier each week and an OL consisting of several transfers starting to build better continuity, the running game is improving, too.
My eyes tell me Michigan looks like the best team in the country. That might not be the case once the CFP plays out, but I think the Wolverines roll through the rest of the regular season, win the Big Ten for the third straight year and earn the top seed in the final four team playoff.
I think … Texas will go undefeated in the regular season
If the Longhorns take care of business this weekend against Oklahoma in Red River, is there another losable game on their schedule? I don’t see it.
The Big 12, especially the bottom, is bad this year, and Texas still has games remaining against Houston, BYU and Iowa State. Kansas State isn’t as good as last year, and Texas Tech has been a downright disappointment.
Unlike Texas teams of the past, these Longhorns ram teams — good and bad. They don’t care if you have a name-brand helmet or not. Steve Sarkisian has a roster of NFL guys on both sides of the ball playing complimentary football.
Perhaps the Sooners get some revenge in the Big 12 Championship come December, but if they don’t win this weekend, no one is picking off Texas until then.
I think … Oregon will win the Pac-12
In this week’s mailbag, I ranked the Ducks as my No. 1 team in the Pac-12. In a league with exciting offenses led by Heisman Trophy-worthy QBs, Oregon is the most balanced of the bunch.
The Ducks don’t play fantastic defense, but they have a pulse on that side of the ball unlike USC. They have much better depth and top-end talent compared to Washington.
Outside of their comeback win in Week 2 at Texas Tech, Oregon has steamrolled everyone. It plays at Washington next weekend, and then hosts USC a month later.
Split, and they make it to Las Vegas where I think Bo Nix, Bucky Irving and the Ducks win the Pac-12 in their final year in the league.
I think … any Billy Napier hot talk is premature until 2024
Florida’s head coach is just 9-9 including 1-7 in games away from The Swamp, but no matter how badly the rest of the 2023 season unfolds, the Gators aren’t parting ways with their second-year head coach by season’s end.
Why?
Napier would be owed $32 million — half of which must be paid immediately.
Also, Florida has a Top 10 recruiting class it would like to keep intact, and no administration would be dumb enough to saddle a first-year head coach in a transition season with THE HARDEST SCHEDULE IN THE NATION next season (non-conference games vs. Miami, Florida State and UCF + conference games vs. the likes of Georgia, Texas, LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee). Napier does need to make some off-season changes (and likely will by hiring a play-caller and an on-field special teams coach), but he has some time to get things right.
I think … Deion Sanders wins at least six games in Year 1 at Colorado
The Buffs are 3-2 after back-to-back losses against Oregon and USC, but they remain on track to go to a bowl game for the first time in a full 12-game season since 2016.
Colorado wasn’t supposed to win either of those games versus Top 10 opponents, and while it looked like they might get boat-raced twice, the Buffs displayed real resiliency (similarly to their efforts against TCU and Colorado State) to fight back against USC.
With Shedeur Sanders at QB, Coach Prime has a trigger-man for Sean Lewis’ offense capable of winning at least three more games.
The schedule lightens the next two weeks (at Arizona State and Stanford) and Arizona must come to Boulder — all three games where Colorado has the best QB and skill talent.
I think … someone other than Marvin Harrison Jr. will win the Biletnikoff Award
Marvin Harrison Jr. is still the best pure wideout in the nation, but the preseason slam dunk pick for the Biletnikoff Award has been slowed by a slew of nagging injuries this year, limiting his production. Harrison is still averaging nearly 20 yards a catch and has 17 receptions and three touchdowns, but his numbers pale in comparison to several other wideouts in the country his year.
Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers, Troy Franklin and Keon Coleman have all been more impactful. Harrison will still go higher in the NFL Draft than everyone but he’s not taking home the best receiver award in college football in 2023.
I think … Rutgers will go bowling
The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 with empathetic wins over Northwestern and Virginia Tech. They got housed at Michigan, but Greg Schiano has Rutgers playing solid ball in 2023. The Knights are playing much better defensively (No. 4 in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed) and are averaging 31 points per game — a 14-point jump from last season so far.
Rutgers will probably lose Saturday at Wisconsin, but the schedule also includes winnable games against Michigan State and Indiana, and who knows what happens in games against Iowa and Maryland.
I think … Neal Brown ’s job is safe, but Dana Holgerson is going to test the limits of how “impossible” his buyout really is
West Virginia is 4-1, and even if it’s been a little smoke and mirrors, the Mountaineers are playing well enough and have a friendly upcoming schedule (at Houston, vs. Oklahoma State, at UCF and vs. BYU) where Brown is more likely to win eight games than get fired at this point.
WVU is really beat up (both at QB and in the secondary), so a slide is certainly possible, but if the Mountaineers don’t totally crater Brown has done enough to earn a spot on the sidelines in 2024.
The same cannot be said for Holgerson, who would be owed $14.8 million if he’s fired this season. That’s obviously a lot of doe, but Houston is backed by a billionaire who has gone on record that the Cougars will fire coaches who win just eight games.
Well, Holgerson went a disappointing 8-5 in 2022 with what many considered the best roster in the AAC. The Cougars are just 2-3 in 2023 with the worst defense in the Big 12. They have an idle date this week and then host West Virginia, in what looked like it was going to be Buyout Bowl for both coaches. Now, it’s just Holgerson’s expensive parachute that most are talking about.
I think … Alabama will win the SEC West
Like the Texas prediction, this could look silly in a couple of days, but the Tide seems to have righted the ship. They housed Ole Miss in the second half two weeks ago, and then completely drug Mississippi State.
This remains a very flawed team, but it’s good enough to win a watered-down SEC West.
Alabama’s defense is legit, especially in the front seven, where Dallas Turner has been a menace off the edge. They still can’t pass protect at all (worst sack rate allowed in the nation), but if you don’t throw (Jalen Milroe had just 12 attempts against the Bulldogs), it’s not as much of a problem.
I think they beat Texas A&M this weekend, and take the catbird seat in the division. I trust the Tide more than the Aggies, who definitely are better with Bobby Petrino as OC but the underlying metrics don’t support some major leap there.
With Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky and Auburn all still on the schedule, the Tide could certainly drop another game but still get to Atlanta.