Bold Predictions Revisited: What I nailed, almost got right and went horribly wrong for the 2023 season
They’re called bold predictions and not bland takes for a reason. Like an MLB All-Star, if you’re hitting north of .300 you have to be feeling pretty good, right?
Well, at least I’ll tell myself that after looking at some of my takes from August.
So with the 2023 season officially wrapped, let’s revisit my 10 preseason Bold Predictions — which ranged from mild to straight spicy.
1. Michigan will be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, but this is Jim Harbaugh’s final season with the Wolverines
Well, I got the first part right, but TBD on Part II. The Wolverines were the most dominant team in the country from Week 1 through the national championship. Despite all its self-inflicted adversity, ‘Michigan versus Everybody’ proved true, as the Wolverines won the Big Ten for the third straight season, earned the No. 1 seed in the CFP and then beat Alabama in overtime and stomped Washington in the title game.
Harbaugh has been mum all season on his future, joking before the national championship game that, “I hope to have one.” He has a $100 million contract sitting on his desk but he recently hired super agent Don Yee and he’s been connected to NFL openings with the Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders and the Washington Commanders. He’s already interviewed for the Chargers job, as well as the Atlanta Falcons.
With potential looming NCAA sanctions, Harbaugh still seems likely to bolt for the NFL after delivering his alma mater a national championship.
2. No one from the Pac-12, ACC or Big 12 will win the Heisman Trophy
Nailed it.
Was I a bit fortunate? Sure. Michael Penix and Bo Nix were finalists, but LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels took home the trophy after a historic statistical season for the Tigers.
Despite LSU’s 9-3 regular-season, Daniels won the award with nearly 5,000 total yards and 50 total touchdowns.
3. Dont’e Thornton leads the SEC in touchdown receptions
Total face-plant pick.
The Oregon transfer battled injuries all season and played in just nine games, but Thornton did not have the impact I expected when he was tabbed to be Jalin Hyatt’s replacement.
Not only did Thornton not lead the SEC in touchdowns (that would be LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. with 17), he had just one receiving score all season — tied for fifth on Tennessee.
4. TCU, Utah, North Carolina, Ole Miss and Tulane all finish the season unranked
Outside of clearly shorting Ole Miss, that’s a pretty good prediction!
Each year, there’s always between 3-6 teams that are way over-ranked in many of the Preseason Top 25s. I nailed four of five teams here.
TCU and North Carolina had sub-par seasons and were clearly overrated. Utah was bitten by the injury bug and also finished the season unranked. Tulane went 11-3 and Will Fritz parlayed another strong year into the Houston job, but as a G5 program, you almost have to be perfect to keep a ranking all season. The Green Wave lost two straight to end the year, including a blowout to Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl.
5. Deion Sanders goes 3-9 in Year 1 at Colorado
Close.
The Buffs started the season 3-0 with upsets over TCU and Nebraska, making my prediction look dead from the outset. Only, then the wheels came off for Colorado, which lost eight of its last nine games to finish 4-8.
Picking Deion Sanders to go 3-9 was among my temper takes, but considering predictions were all over the map for the Buffs last offseason, I at least was in the ballpark of how the Buffs’ season would play out.
They scored some points, which I expected, but they were a highly volatile program (see: demoting Sean Lewis midseason) that couldn’t block anyone or get any stops on defense.
6. Iowa’s Drive for 325 isn’t even a sweat
Well, it wasn’t a sweat! But that’s because Iowa’s offense never came close to getting cranked up.
A year after setting Big Ten records for offensive ineptitude, the Hawkeyes were actually worse in 2023 (just 15.5 points per game).
The quest to average 25 points per game died by midseason and Brian Ferentz was officially notified of his impending ouster by late October.
Amazingly, Iowa still made the Big Ten Championship because Phil Parker’s defense remained elite.
Still, the product Iowa put out offensively was embarrassing. The Hawkeyes did suffer a litany of offensive injuries, including losing quarterback Cade McNamara after just five games, but they scored 25 points against one Power 5 team all season. That’s inexcusable in today’s modern game.
In a related note, Iowa still hasn’t hired a replacement for Ferentz at OC.
7. USC’s defense finishes in the No. 90s nationally again in yards per play and scoring
I’m going to chalk this one up as a win. I predicted a regression in turnovers and noted that USC had a much more difficult schedule this season.
Ultimately, the Trojans did not finish in the 90s nationally in yards per play and scoring — the Reverse Iowa of the West did worse than that in both categories in 2023.
Without last season’s turnover luck, USC finished the year No. 121 in scoring (34.4 points per game) and No. 104 in yards per play (6.1). The Trojans’ defensive transfers didn’t really pan out, and the same problems that have plagued Lincoln Riley’s defenses for years (misalignments, poor tackling, a lack of physicality) continued.
Riley finally made a change in the offense, firing Alex Grinch and poaching D’Anton Lynn from crosstown rival UCLA.
8. Neal Brown, Dana Holgerson and Butch Jones will be among those fired this offseason, but zero coaches will get canned from the SEC or ACC
Wrong.
Holgerson did indeed “test the limits of his impossible buyout, getting canned after a 4-8 season at Houston.
But Neal Brown clawed his way out of his supposed coaching grave, going from one of the top hot-seat candidates to a guy who could get an extension after leading West Virginia to a 9-4 year with a win over North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Meanwhile, Butch Jones saved his job after Arkansas State went 6-7 and 4-4 in conference play with freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor.
The SEC had a pair of coaches axed, most notably Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M. The Aggies opted to eat the gargantuan buyout rather than continue to willfully accept middling results.
I was skeptical about the Zach Arnett hire at Mississippi State, and knew he was under a lot of Year 1 pressure, but the results were so disastrous for the Bulldogs in 2023 that they had no choice but to make a move.
There was one firing in the ACC, too, as Syracuse moved on from Dino Babers after seven seasons.
9. Carson Steele is among the most impactful transfers, leads all Power 5 tailbacks in rushing
This was a caliente prediction, and Carson Steele burned me.
A year after ranking in the Top 10 nationally in rushing (1,556 yards) and touchdowns (14), I thought the former Ball State standout would be primed for a monster season in Chip Kelly’s offense as UCLA’s replacement for Zach Charbonnet.
Nope.
Steele was still productive (847 yards, six scores) but he split carries with TJ Harden — racking up a much lighter workload (167 carries) than he had in 2022 (289).
10. Texas A&M averages over 36 points per game — the program’s best scoring total in the Jimbo Fisher Era — and Clemson leads the ACC in scoring
Never get too greedy, kids.
Had I just stuck with Part 1 of my last prediction, I would’ve at least been close. Like within the margins of error for an election.
But then I took the boldness one step too far.
Despite Fisher getting fired, the Aggies were much-improved offensively in 2023. They averaged 34 points per game — a 12-point improvement from last season.
But they didn’t top the 36.0 points per game margin, which would’ve been the best mark under Fisher in seven seasons.
As for Clemson, the Year 1 returns with Garrett Riley at OC did not pan out. The Tigers’ offense looked a lot like the same, ole clunky Clemson offense in recent seasons. They averaged 29.8 points per game in 2023 — good for sixth in the ACC and nearly a 5-point drop from the year prior.
So there you have it: Add it all up and I nailed three bold predictions, one TBD, was close on another couple, and completely whiffed on the rest.
All in all, I’ll take it. Onto to 2024.