Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 6

The 2025 college football season has officially hit the halfway point of the regular season following another wild slate of games in Week 6, which saw five Top 25 teams go down. That included a second-straight loss for preseason Big Ten favorite Penn State, which is rapidly falling out of College Football Playoff consideration.

Of course, with the first official reveal of the CFP’s weekly rankings still a month away, all current Playoff forecasts are mere projections. But that doesn’t stop ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach from projecting what the 2025 postseason could look like based on the first six weeks of the regular season.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

Check out ESPN’s updated 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projection and the full bowl slate below:

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M

Both ESPN experts are sticking with their preferred highest-ranked Group of Five champion coming out of the American Conference, though they differ on the who. Bonagura remains high on newly-minted No. 23 Memphin to win the league, while Schlabach is firm on No. 24 South Florida running the table.

They also differ on which SEC runner-up will ultimately secure the Playoff’s No. 5 seed and face the 12th-seeded American champion. Bonagura is confident the Sooners will make it to Atlanta, especially once QB John Mateer returns in a few weeks, while Schlabach has more faith in the fifth-ranked Aggies.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Oklahoma

Penn State’s loss to previously winless UCLA completely shook up both of the ESPN experts’ Playoff brackets, and each is replacing them with a team from the SEC taking the 11th seed. Bonagura gives that spot to Texas A&M and projects a renewal of the Lonestar State rivalry with Big 12 champion Texas Tech.

Schlabach, meanwhile, slides inconsistent LSU into the 11th seed in an All-SEC first-round matchup in Norman, where host Oklahoma would make it as the sixth seed despite losing starting QB John Mateer for several weeks. Schlabach has six SEC teams making the 12-team field.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Indiana

Both ESPN experts expect a team from the state of Georgia to make the 12-team field as the No. 10 seed, they just differ on which. Bonagura expects Georgia Tech will make its Playoff debut this season despite losing to Miami in the ACC title game, setting up a first-round road trip to Tuscaloosa.

Meanwhile, Schlabach is confident Georgia will bounce back from its setback vs. Alabama and secure the 10th seed and set up a compelling first-round date with Indiana. It’d certainly be a challenge for the Bulldogs to travel to chilly Bloomington in early December, but it would make things interesting.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Alabama

Bonagura is also projecting the Bulldogs will make the 12-team field, only as the No. 9 seed, where they’ll face a challenging first-round road trip to face the Big Ten’s Indiana in Bloomington. With Penn State’s loss, Indiana would be the Big Ten’s third team in both brackets.

Schlabach also has Texas Tech winning the Big 12 championship, but still expects the Red Raiders to open the Playoffs on the road as the No. 9 seed, where it’ll travel to Alabama for what will be the first-ever postseason game played in Tuscaloosa.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon

Both Bonagura and Schlabach have the exact same Top 4, with both expecting Oregon to remain undefeated before falling to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. And they both expect the high-powered Ducks will have to face with a perennial SEC superpower.

Based on these projections, it’ll be a trip down memory lane for Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, who has previously worked for both Alabama and Georgia. That includes including serving as the Bulldogs defensive coordinator from 2019-21 before becoming a head coach in Eugene in 2022.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Miami

As mentioned, both ESPN prognosticators have the Miami Hurricanes holding on and winning the ACC outright to lock up the Playoff’s No. 3 seed. Bonagura projects the Big 12 champion Red Raiders will beat former Big 12 rival Texas A&M in the first round to set up the date in Miami.

Schlabach, meanwhile, expects the sixth-seeded Sooners will win their all-SEC first-round game vs. LSU before traveling to Miami to take on the ACC champion Hurricanes in what is effectively a home game for the Hurricanes.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

As the No. 1 overall seed and Big Ten champion, the Buckeyes earn a trip to the Granddaddy Of Them All, the Rose Bowl, where it’s set to face off against the SEC’s last two national champions in a bid to become the Playoff’s first back-to-back champion since Georgia did it in 2021-22.

Schlabach projects top-seeded Ohio State will renew its Playoff rivalry against Alabama in Pasadena, with the Buckeyes eager to avenge their last showdown when the Crimson Tide rolled to a 52-24 blowout in the 2021 CFP National Championship game in Miami.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Ole Miss

Both ESPN experts are anticipating an All-SEC Sugar Bowl quarterfinal in New Orleans, where they expect the SEC champion Rebels to face a rematch against the team they previously beat in Atlanta for the conference title.

Bonagura envisions a shootout between Ole Miss and Oklahoma, with Sooners QB John Mateer expected to be fully healthy entering the postseason after recently undergoing hand surgery. Schlabach, meanwhile, sees Texas A&M vying for revenge down on the bayou.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon

Not quarterfinal upsets for either ESPN prognosticator, and both expect the same semifinal games, albeit at different locations. Bonagura projects the Fiesta Bowl semifinal will pit the top-seeded Buckeyes against the Rebels in the SEC’s final chance to end the Big Ten’s CFP domination.

Meanwhile, Schlabach sees the second-ranked Ducks taking on the ACC champion Hurricanes, pitting Miami head coach Mario Cristobal against his former program and the man that replaced him in Eugene, Lanning. This will also pair two of the sport’s top QBs that began their college careers in other places.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State

As mentioned above, just call Bonagura’s Peach Bowl matchup the Mario Cristobal Bowl as Miami’s native son takes on his former program, Oregon, for a ticket to the CFP national championship game. Should this play out as scripted, expect an emotionally-charged shootout in Atlanta.

Schlabach also envisions a Ole Miss-Ohio State semifinal that will feature an intriguing “chess match between Lane Kiffin’s high-flying offense and Matt Patricia’s stingy defense,” providing the Playoffs a compelling Big Ten-SEC showdown that is sure to draw major ratings.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

It’s all chalk for both Bonagura and Schlabach, who once again expect the Big Ten will win its third consecutive College Football Playoff national championship in what will be a rematch of their projected Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis.

The Buckeyes continue to prove they’re one of college football’s most talented programs and once again features a dominating defense that will pair well against the Ducks’ explosive offense led by star QB Dante Moore. It’ll be interesting to see what Lanning could do with a second chance at Ohio State.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ball State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana-Monroe vs. New Mexico State
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Texas vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Syracuse

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Utah State vs. California
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Maryland

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: SMU vs. UNLV

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Iowa

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. BYU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Florida State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Virginia vs. South Carolina

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: TCU vs. Texas

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Navy
Schlabach: UConn vs. NC State

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Houston vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Penn State vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Mississippi State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Washington
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Missouri

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. USC
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Tennessee

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Temple

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Auburn

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State