2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology following week of upsets

Following one of the craziest weeks of upset results in recent college basketball memory On3’s 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology takes on a new look. The seed lines all get a makeover with no undefeated teams left.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The conference portion of the season has started with a bang, as the top three teams in the AP Poll have all lost games since the weekend. In addition, several bubble teams took big wins and losses to shake up the other end of the bracket as well.

Check out the latest projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Jan. 11.
Projected 1-line: Houston, Purdue, UConn, Arizona
Last four byes: Ole Miss, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Colorado
Last four in: TCU, Nebraska, Michigan State, Indiana State
First four out: Miami, James Madison, South Carolina, Wake Forest

First Four (Dayton)

16 NCCU (MEAC) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 Lafayette (Patriot) vs. 16 Merrimack (NEC)
11 Michigan State vs. 11 Indiana State
11 Nebraska vs. 11 TCU

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston vs. 16 NCCU/Southern
8 St. John’s vs. 9 Mississippi State
Salt Lake City
5 Marquette vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Baylor (Big 12) vs. 13 Drexel (CAA)
Pittsburgh
6 Dayton (A-10) vs. 11 Seton Hall (Big East)
3 Duke vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Memphis
7 Utah vs. 10 Cincinnati
2 Kentucky vs. 15 Jacksonville State (CUSA)

1-seed Houston

Despite taking the first loss of the season, Houston still boasts the top rank in several analytic categories, including the NCAA’s NET Rankings. The Cougars continue their first season in the Big 12 with a chance to pick up more resume defining wins on the way to a top overall seed in March.

2-seed Kentucky

Kentucky’s roster has meshed well over the first several months of the season and now looks the part of an SEC contender, as well as a team built for an NCAA Tournament run. The Wildcats move onto the 2-seed line thanks to consistent play and missteps by others.

West (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City
1 Arizona vs. 16 South Dakota State (Summit)
8 Texas Tech vs. 9 Ole Miss
Spokane
5 SDSU vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 BYU vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Omaha
6 Oklahoma vs. 11 Princeton (Ivy)
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Morehead State (OVC)
Omaha
7 Colorado State vs. 10 Gonzaga
2 Kansas vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona makes a move onto the 1-seed line this week after bouncing back from a December slump by raising their metric numbers and surviving while others took resume hits. The Wildcats have shown at times this year they can be one of the best teams in the country, if they can avoid upsets.

2-seed Kansas

Despite an impressive resume of wins, Kansas has not impressed the analytic machines and recently took one of the worst marks of any top-tier team with a loss against UCF. The Jayhawks must rebound in the Big 12 and raise its standing with the computers to cement a 1-seed by March.

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue vs. 16 Merrimack/Lafayette
8 Villanova vs. 9 Texas
Spokane
5 Iowa State vs. 12 Santa Clara (WCC)
4 Creighton vs. 13 Grandon Canyon (WAC)
Indianapolis
6 Utah State vs. 11 TCU/Nebraska
3 Illinois vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Charlotte
7 Clemson vs. 10 Colorado
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Purdue

The Purdue run atop the bracket ends after a second Big Ten loss against a team at best looking to land on the right side of the bubble. Behind the strong play of Zach Edey, the Boilermakers remain a threat and have good numbers in the NET, along with others.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee dropped a game against Mississippi State early in SEC play to end any chance they moved onto the 1-seed line this week. However, the Volunteers remain one of the top teams in the conference and benefit from several resume building opportunities.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn vs. 16 St. Peter’s (MAAC)
8 Texas A&M vs. 9 Ohio State
Pittsburgh
5 Alabama vs. 12 Samford (SoCon)
4 Memphis (AAC) vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Salt Lake City
6 FAU vs. 11 Michigan State/Indiana State
3 Auburn (SEC) vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Salt Lake City
7 Nevada vs. 10 Oregon (Pac-12)
2 North Carolina vs. 15 Kennesaw State (ASUN)

1-seed UConn

The defending national champions look to earn a 1-seed this season. The Huskies were the only team ranked in the Top Five of the AP Poll this week to avoid a loss and are rewarded by a move up the board.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina has found its groove this season and brings a five-game win streak into the weekend which includes multiple projected NCAA Tournament teams. The Tar Heels have also avoided any bad losses on the resume, only losing to UConn and Kentucky so far.