2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology

The first edition of On3’s 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology provides a look at how each team stacks up to this point in the season. Updates will be made as the season continues.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The calendar has flipped to 2024 and the NCAA Tournament bubble is starting to form as non-conference resumes conclude and conference title races begin. The top teams in the preseason polls have mostly impressed to this point, with Purdue and Kansas currently claiming the top two overall seeds.

Surprise starts by James Madison and Dayton have shifted the last four in category to the edge of the seed line with one 11-seed matchup and one 12-seed matchup.

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Jan. 4.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, Kansas, Houston, UConn
Last four byes: Texas, Florida, South Carolina, Utah State
Last four in: Nevada, TCU, New Mexico, Cincinnati
First four out: Texas Tech, Nebraska, Arkansas, Wake Forest

First Four (Dayton)

16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 Marist (MAAC) vs. 16 Central Connecticut (NEC)
11 TCU vs. 11 Nevada
12 New Mexico vs. 12 Cincinnati

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue vs. 16 Marist/Central Connecticut
8 Villanova (Big East) vs. 9 Dayton (A-10)
Spokane
5 Auburn vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Oklahoma vs. 13 Weber State (Big Sky)
Memphis
6 Creighton vs. 11 Utah State
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Morehead State (OVC)
Indianapolis
7 Utah vs. 10 Florida
2 Marquette vs. 15 Drexel (CAA)

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn vs. 16 Norfolk State/Southern
8 Ohio State vs. 9 Virginia
Brooklyn
5 Iowa State vs. 12 Princeton (Ivy)
4 Duke vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Charlotte
6 Alabama vs. 11 Nevada/TCU
3 Clemson vs. 14 Western Kentucky (CUSA)
Pittsburgh
7 Providence vs. 10 Mississippi State
2 Illinois (Big Ten) vs. 15 Vermont (AEC)

South (Dallas)

Omaha
1 Kansas vs. 16 South Dakota State (Summit)
8 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 9 Michigan State
Pittsburgh
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 New Mexico/Cincinnati
4 North Carolina vs. 13 Purdue FW (Horizon)
Omaha
6 Texas A&M vs. 11 Oregon (Pac-12)
3 Memphis (AAC) vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Charlotte
7 Miami (ACC) vs. 10 James Madison (SBC)
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Kennesaw State (ASUN)

West (Los Angeles)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Bowling Green (MAC)
8 Colorado vs. 9 Ole Miss (SEC)
Spokane
5 FAU vs. 12 Indiana State (MVC)
4 Baylor vs. 13 Grand Canyon (WAC)
Salt Lake City
6 Colorado State (MWC) vs. 11 South Carolina
3 BYU vs. 14 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Salt Lake City
7 SDSU vs. 10 Texas
2 Arizona vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)