2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Top seeds shift as regular season nears end

The regular season will come to a close over the weekend and conference tournaments will open in full swing. Over the next few days, several automatic bids will be clinched and the bubble will take its final shape as Selection Sunday nears.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The top of the bracket has seen plenty movement already in March, and this week is no different with new faces among the Top 16 looking to host a regional.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Mar. 7.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
Last four byes: FAU, Boise State, Colorado State, Villanova
Last four in: New Mexico, Colorado, Northwestern, Virginia
First four out: Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Providence
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 Stetson (ASUN) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Central Connecticut (NEC)
11 Northwestern vs. 11 Colorado
11 New Mexico vs. 11 Virginia

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Central Connecticut
8 TCU vs. 9 Mississippi State
Spokane
5 Clemson vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Kentucky vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Indianapolis
6 Utah State (MWC) vs. 11 Northwestern/Colorado
3 Marquette vs. 14 Akron (MAC)
Omaha
7 Gonzaga vs. 10 Indiana State (MVC)
2 Iowa State vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue remains the top team in bracketology as UConn looks to close the gap once again with a big win in the Big East. For now, the Boilermakers are able to hold them off and look likely to hold the spot if they are able to win out through the Big Ten conference tournament.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State keeps a spot on the 2-seed line in this updated look at bracketology after once again reinforcing their analytic strength with a big win against Big 12 competition. The Cyclones remain second in the conference standing and could cement their spot here with a solid conference tournament run.

West (Los Angeles)

Charlotte
1 Tennessee (SEC) vs. 16 Stetson/Grambling State
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 St. John’s
Spokane
5 SDSU vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Illinois vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Memphis
6 South Carolina vs. 11 New Mexico/Virginia
3 Kansas vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Salt Lake City
7 Texas vs. 10 FAU
2 Arizona (Pac-12) vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee keeps hold of its spot on the 1-seed line this week after grabbing hold of the SEC regular season standings with just one game to play. The Volunteers have separated themselves from the rest of the conference and can solidify their seed with a postseason conference title to add.

2-seed Arizona

Arizona sits on the 2-seed line but awaits any potential slip by Tennessee which could catapult them back onto the top of the West. The Wildcats have taken hold of the Pac-12 regular season standings with one game left to clinch that accolade before making a postseason run.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 9 Nebraska
Pittsburgh
5 BYU vs. 12 Richmond (A-10)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Vermont (AEC)
Brooklyn
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Villanova
3 Duke vs. 14 Colgate (Patriot)
Omaha
7 Washington State vs. 10 Boise State
2 Baylor vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed UConn

UConn remains No. 2 on the overall seed line with a chance to pass Purdue still in play after a big win over Marquette this week. The Huskies will have a chance to make their case as the best team in the regular season with a Big East tournament run and await the results of the other contenders.

2-seed Baylor

Baylor moves up onto the 2-seed line after stringing together big wins as the regular season nears a close. The Bears take advantage of a loss by Marquette this week to make the jump and make the case for three Big 12 teams on the top two lines on Selection Sunday.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Little Rock (OVC)
8 Michigan State vs. 9 Nevada
Pittsburgh
5 Dayton vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 Auburn vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Brooklyn
6 Florida vs. 11 Princeton (Ivy)
3 Creighton vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Indianapolis
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 Colorado State
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed Houston

Houston holds steady on the 1-line as the No. 3 overall seed behind Purdue and UConn for another week as they remain atop the Big 12 standings headed into the final weekend of the regular season. The Cougars will now get their chance to show they are more than a regular season juggernaut.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina remains on the 2-seed line with a sliver of hope still alive for a 1-seed berth behind Tennessee and Arizona. A rivalry matchup with Duke will go a long way this weekend in determining where the Tar Heels land on Selection Sunday.