2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Latest Bracketology as top teams separate

As the season moves into February, each team has enough data behind their resume to create a clear picture of the NCAA Tournament field and bubble. However, three teams have separated themselves from the field.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

More surprising results in a historic year for unranked opponents against the Top 10 has continued. Tennessee’s run on the 1-line was short-lived with a loss. The top three overall seeds seem set for now with Purdue, UConn and Houston developing better resumes than any other team.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Feb. 1.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
Last four byes: Nebraska, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Boise State
Last four in:  Texas, Ole Miss, Washington State, Northwestern
First four out: Princeton, Virginia, Memphis, Providence

First Four (Dayton)

16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN) vs. 16 Central Connecticut (NEC)
16 NCCU (MEAC) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
11 Texas vs. 11 Northwestern
11 Washington State vs. 11 Ole Miss

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 NCCU/Grambling State
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Colorado
Omaha
5 Kentucky vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Iowa State vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Omaha
6 Utah State (MWC) vs. 11 Texas A&M
3 Kansas vs. 14 Morehead State (OVC)
Memphis
7 TCU vs. 10 Colorado State
2 Auburn vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue remains the top overall seed entering February and will look to hold off UConn and Houston the rest of the way. The Boilermakers still are not atop the Big Ten standings have a big challenge ahead against Wisconsin, who will be looking to bounce back after a loss.

2-seed Auburn

Auburn remains on the 2-line in this updated bracketology, despite losing against Mississippi State. The Tigers were aided by multiple losses around them in the conversation of regional hosts and a rebound win over Vanderbilt this week.

West (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City
1 Arizona (Pac-12) vs. 16 South Dakota State (Summit)
8 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 9 South Carolina
Spokane
5 Baylor vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Creighton vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Salt Lake City
6 New Mexico vs. 11 Texas/Northwestern
3 BYU vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Indianapolis
7 SDSU vs. 10 Cincinnati
2 Wisconsin vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona returns to the 1-line again after just one week among the 2-seeds. The Wildcats must continue taking control of the Pac-12 where there are not as many resume-building opportunities as past years.

2-seed Wisconsin

Wisconsin just barely holds onto the last 2-seed bid following an upset loss against Nebraska this week. The Badgers join a group of multiple teams with a case for this spot which includes Alabama and Kansas, but have a weekend game against Purdue which could cement their status.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Clemson vs. 9 Indiana State (MVC)
Brooklyn
5 Dayton vs. 12 Cornell (Ivy)
4 Marquette vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Pittsburgh
6 Texas Tech vs. 11 Ole Miss/Washington State
3 Illinois vs. 14 Drexel (CAA)
Charlotte
7 FAU (AAC) vs. 10 Nebraska
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Green Bay (Horizon)

1-seed Houston

Houston is among the top group in college basketball alongside Purdue and UConn, earning them a clear spot on the 1-line of bracketology each week. The Cougars have found their rhythm in Big 12 play.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee suffered a loss against South Carolina, who also knocked off Kentucky recently, knocking them off the 1-line shortly after they rose up. However, the Volunteers remain one of the top candidates looking for that final spot as a top seed.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky/Central Connecticut
8 Florida vs. 9 Utah
Spokane
5 Oklahoma vs. 12 Richmond (A-10)
4 Duke vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Pittsburgh
6 Michigan State vs. 11 Boise State
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Charlotte
7 St. John’s vs. 10 Mississippi State
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed UConn

UConn continues to build its resume and separate from the field this season. The Huskies continue to build their path to another deep NCAA Tournament and chance to go back-to-back as national champions.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina had a chance to move onto the 1-line of bracketology this week before an upset loss against Georgia Tech. However, The Tar Heels still appear in good position to make the most of their season before hosting a regional in the NCAA Tournament.