2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Way-too-early bracketology picture entering summer

The 2024-25 college basketball season promises to bring many twists and turns before reaching the next March Madness moment, but it is never too early to start looking at bracketology. Many teams have set their roster with returning talent and incoming players while some await late arrivals on the recruiting trail or through the transfer portal.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The On3 way-too-early Top 25 projections shape the early look at the top seeds, with the at-large bids from mid-major conferences being determined by a mix between offseason moves and past performances over recent seasons in each conference.

Check out the first way-too-early bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, UConn
Last four byes: Wisconsin, Maryland, Missouri, Michigan
Last four in: Arizona State, Washington, Oregon, Miami
First four out: Ohio State, SDSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Next four out: Colorado State, NC State, Kansas State, Syracuse

First Four (Dayton)

16 Merrimack (MEAC) vs. 16 St. Peter’s (NEC)
16 Norfolk State (MAAC) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
11 Arizona State vs. 11 Oregon
11 Washington vs. 11 Miami

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Alabama (SEC) vs. 16 Lipscomb (ASUN)
8 St. John’s vs. 9 BYU
Cleveland
5 Florida vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Providence vs. 13 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
Milwaukee
6 Clemson vs. 11 Arizona State/Oregon
3 Creighton vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Denver
7 Ole Miss vs. 10 Memphis (AAC)
2 Baylor vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama is coming off the first Final Four appearance in program history, and the offseason activity suggests they are charged to get back. Retaining Mark Sears and Grant Nelson while adding impact transfers Clifford Omoruyi and Chris Youngblood are just the start for America’s deepest team.

2-seed Baylor

Baylor loses a pair of potential first round picks from last year’s roster, but brings in more talented young players led by VJ Edgecombe. To complement those pieces, veteran stars Jeremy Roach and Norchad Omier arrive from the transfer portal with a chance to make a run.

East (Newark)

Providence
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Merrimack/St. Peter’s
8 Michigan State vs. 9 Texas Tech
Providence
5 Indiana vs. 12 Samford (SoCon)
4 Tennessee vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Raleigh
6 Arkansas vs. 11 Washington/Miami
3 North Carolina vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Raleigh
7 Cincinnati vs. 10 Maryland
2 Duke (ACC) vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed UConn

UConn is coming off back-to-back national championships and still looks primed to compete for a three-peat next season. They arrive on the 1-seed line by returning Alex Karaban and adding impact players Tarris Reed, Aidan Mahaney and Liam McNeeley to the mix.

2-seed Duke

Duke brings in prized freshman Cooper Flagg with a supporting cast of five-star freshmen behind him. In an effort to maximize the young talent, the Blue Devils have also done well to add veteran role players like Sion James, Maliq Brown and Mason Gillis.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 South Dakota State (Summit)
8 Kentucky vs. 9 Rutgers
Cleveland
5 Purdue vs. 12 Bradley (MVC)
4 Marquette vs. 13 Arkansas State (SBC)
Milwaukee
6 Texas A&M vs. 11 Michigan
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Toledo (MAC)
Lexington
7 Wake Forest vs. 10 Wisconsin
2 Auburn vs. 15 High Point (Big South)

1-seed Houston

Houston remains at the top of the sport despite losing veteran point guard Jamal Shead this offseason. The Cougars return nearly every other pieces from last year’s roster which earned a 1-seed, adding Milos Uzan to help fill in the guard rotation.

2-seed Auburn

Auburn brings back Johni Broome, Chad Baker-Mazara and several other role players ready to build on last season’s performance. Add in impact freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford with incoming transfers JP Pegues and Miles Kelly to put the Tigers in the mix for the SEC title and a top seed.

West (San Francisco)

Wichita
1 Kansas vs. 16 Norfolk State/Grambling State
8 New Mexico (MWC) vs. 9 St. Mary’s
Seattle
5 UCLA (Big Ten) vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Texas vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Denver
6 USC vs. 11 Dayton (A-10)
3 Arizona vs. 14 Morehead State (OVC)
Seattle
7 Illinois vs. 10 Missouri
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Kansas

Kansas coach Bill Self said he turned his attention to building the 2024-25 roster a bit earlier than normal, and it seems to be paying off so far. Transfers AJ Storr, Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffen have the Jayhawks reloaded at key positions to complement Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams returning for another season.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga had a down year by the lofty 21st century standards of the program last season, but has rebounded and then some with offseason acquisitions and retention. Michael Ajayi and Khalif Battle enter the mix with Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard in the backcourt while Graham Ike returns to the frontcourt.