2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Preseason bracketology features potential historic feat

As the 2024-25 college basketball season begins, preseason projections have kickstarted the narrative for teams expected to compete for a national championship, win their conference, or battle on the bubble.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

While the first NET Rankings will not be released until later in the season, bracketology still aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The 2024-25 season promises to deliver many storylines, but one which will continue across multiple years is the race to knock off the Big East’s record. After conference realignment put the SEC at 16 teams and the Big Ten at 18 teams, the clock is ticking on the historic 2011 season which saw 11 teams compete from one conference.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, where the Big Ten is projected to make history:

Bracketology

All projections reflect preseason calculations.
Projected 1-line: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, UConn
Last four byes: Rutgers, Xavier, Oregon, Maryland
Last four in: Miami, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Wisconsin
First four out: Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, Pittsburgh

First Four (Dayton)

16 Little Rock (OVC) vs. 16 Grambling (SWAC)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Wagner (NEC)
11 Miami vs. 11 Ohio State
11 Mississippi State vs. 11 Wisconsin

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Alabama (SEC) vs. 16 Little Rock/Grambling
8 Providence vs. 9 Rutgers
Milwaukee
5 Illinois vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Tennessee vs. 13 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
Denver
6 Florida vs. 11 Miami/Ohio State
3 Baylor vs. 14 Samford (SoCon)
Lexington
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 Memphis (AAC)
2 Auburn vs. 15 Lipscomb (ASUN)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama is coming off the first Final Four appearance in program history, and the offseason activity suggests they are charged to get back. Retaining Mark Sears and Grant Nelson while adding impact transfers Clifford Omoruyi and Chris Youngblood are just the start for America’s deepest team.

2-seed Auburn

Auburn brings back Johni Broome, Chad Baker-Mazara and several other role players ready to build on last season’s performance. Add in impact freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford with incoming transfers JP Pegues and Miles Kelly to put the Tigers in the mix for the SEC title and a top seed.

East (Newark)

Providence
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Wake Forest vs. 9 Kentucky
Cleveland
5 Purdue vs. 12 Bradley (MVC)
4 Texas vs. 13 Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
Raleigh
6 Cincinnati vs. 11 VCU (A10)
3 North Carolina vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Raleigh
7 St. John’s vs. 10 Maryland
2 Duke (ACC) vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed UConn

UConn is coming off back-to-back national championships and still looks primed to compete for a three-peat next season. They arrive on the 1-seed line by returning Alex Karaban and adding impact players Tarris Reed, Aidan Mahaney and Liam McNeeley to the mix.

2-seed Duke

Duke brings in prized freshman Cooper Flagg with a supporting cast of five-star freshmen behind him. In an effort to maximize the young talent, the Blue Devils have also done well to add veteran role players like Sion James, Maliq Brown and Mason Gillis.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 South Dakota State (Summit)
8 Michigan State vs. 9 St. Mary’s
Providence
5 Texas A&M vs. 12 Princeton (Ivy)
4 Marquette vs. 13 Vermont (AEC)
Cleveland
6 Kansas State vs. 11 Mississippi State/Wisconsin
3 Creighton vs. 14 Akron (MAC)
Milwaukee
7 Clemson vs. 10 Xavier
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Purdue Fort Wayne (Horizon)

1-seed Houston

Houston remains at the top of the sport despite losing veteran point guard Jamal Shead this offseason. The Cougars return nearly every other pieces from last year’s roster which earned a 1-seed, adding Milos Uzan to help fill in the guard rotation.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State brings back the core of its roster from the 2023-24 season which competed at the top of the Big 12 and made a case as a potential 1-seed late in the season last year. Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic and Keshon Gilbert lead the way again.

West (San Francisco)

Wichita
1 Kansas vs. 16 Norfolk State/Wagner
8 Ole Miss vs. 9 USC
Seattle
5 UCLA (Big Ten) vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Arkansas vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Denver
6 Indiana vs. 11 SDSU (MWC)
3 Arizona vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Seattle
7 BYU vs. 10 Oregon
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Weber State (Big Sky)

1-seed Kansas

Kansas coach Bill Self said he turned his attention to building the 2024-25 roster a bit earlier than normal, and it seems to be paying off so far. Transfers AJ Storr, Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffen have the Jayhawks reloaded at key positions to complement Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams returning for another season.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga had a down year by the lofty 21st century standards of the program last season, but has rebounded and then some with offseason acquisitions and retention. Michael Ajayi and Khalif Battle enter the mix with Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard in the backcourt while Graham Ike returns to the frontcourt.