Bracketology: ESPN releases new NCAA Tournament projections at start of conference play

After a slow week over Christmas, ESPN’s Bracketology saw a slight update in its latest edition on New Year’s Eve.

Of the 72 projected seeds in the tournament, over a third stayed exactly where they were in last week’s release on Christmas Eve. That included all of the No. 1 seeds, three of the four No. 2 seeds, and a pair of the No. 3 seeds.

Within the field, the conferences with the most teams in remained the same too with the Big Ten adding just one more to be at 11 while the Missouri Valley lost their second beyond their automatic qualifier as such.

With that, here’s how ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projects the 2025 NCAA Tournament on the final day of 2024:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Again, the bubble, much like the rest of the tournament field, saw few shifts coming off of last week’s holiday slate.

On the positive, Nebraska, Vanderbilt, and Northwestern are slightly up with the Cornhuskers and Commodores going from the First Two Out to the Last Two In. Texas, Arizona State, Missouri, Saint Mary’s, and BYU are then all teams that are slightly down.

Last Four Byes: San Diego State, West Virginia, Penn State, Texas
Last Four In: Arizona State, SMU, Nebraska, Vanderbilt
First Four Out: Missouri, Iowa, Saint Mary’s, Northwestern
Next Four Out: BYU, Creighton, Arizona, Louisville

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn (12-1) again stayed as the No. 1 overall seed for ESPN in the NCAA Tournament. That’s with the Tigers coming off of a nine-day break on Monday to get another blowout win at 87-58 over Monmouth ahead of the start of league play this weekend in the SEC.

Oregon (12-1) and Texas A&M (11-2) are then up to the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds respectively in this region while Utah State at No. 7, Ohio State at No. 9, and Drake at No. 11 also improved with this portion of the bracket having the most movement.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/Hampton
8. Clemson vs. 9. Ohio State
5. Michigan State vs. 12. San Francisco
4. Mississippi State vs. 13. Grand Canyon

6. Baylor vs. 11. Drake
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Lipscomb
7. Utah State vs. 10. North Carolina
2. Oregon vs. 15. Central Connecticut

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Tennessee (12-0), who stayed as the second of the No. 1 seeds for ESPN, has not taken the court since their win last week over MTSU. They’ll now do so this afternoon in their final non-conference game against Norfolk State.

Michigan is then the only team in this region that’s up as a No. 6. Gonzaga at No. 4, Georgia at No. 9, and then Texas at No. 11 are all down this week.

1. Tennessee vs. 16. Youngstown State
8. Dayton vs. 9. Georgia
5. Purdue vs. 12. Arkansas State
4. Gonzaga vs. 13. Princeton

6. Michigan vs. 11. Texas
3. Kansas vs. 14. North Dakota State
7. Cincinnati vs. 10. Penn State
2. Marquette vs. 15. UMass Lowell

East Region – Newark

Iowa State (11-1) is the most recent of ESPN’s No. 1 seeds to play as they won at 79-69 at Colorado last night. That opened conference play for the Cyclones at 1-0 in the Big 12.

Beyond that, Maryland is the only team to move a seed line in this region with them down to a No. 7.

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Lehigh/SE Missouri State
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. Arkansas
5. Oklahoma vs. 12. Liberty
4. Houston vs. 13. Furman

6. Pittsburgh vs. 11. Nebraska/Vanderbilt
3. UConn vs. 14. High Point
7. Maryland vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Alabama vs. 15. Norfolk State

West Region – San Francisco

Duke (10-2), the last of ESPN’s No. 1 seeds, will also return to the court today with a conference game versus Virginia Tech to end a ten-day break for the Blue Devils

The West Region then has five teams trending down in Kentucky at No. 3, Ole Miss at No. 8, San Diego State at No. 10, and Arizona State at No. 11 as well as Kent State at No. 14.

1. Duke vs. 16. Marist
8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Texas Tech
5. Memphis vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. UCLA vs. 13. McNeese State

6. Illinois vs. 11. Arizona State/SMU
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Kent State
7. St. John’s vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Florida vs. 15. Northern Colorado