Bracketology: ESPN releases new projections for NCAA Tournament with massive changes

After six weeks in college basketball, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released another update to Bracketology.

The focus for Lunardi this week, much like the rest of the sport, was on the Southeastern Conference. His field now has the SEC claiming three of four seeds at No. 1. They then have six of the top-ten in seeding and a total of 13 berths in the bracket with two more on the bubble as just one team is not currently in contention for a spot in the tournament from the league.

From there, the Big Ten and Big 12 have the next-most with ten and eight respectively. The Big East then has five, the ACC has four, and the WCC and Mountain West have a pair apiece.

Here’s how the bracket now looks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament per the latest from Lunardi at ESPN on Tuesday morning:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

The bubble for ESPN currently includes moves up by West Virginia after two more wins, Arizona State despite a loss to a high-quality opponent, and Missouri after another victory following their upset of the previous No. 1 team in the nation. It then features moves down from Saint Mary’s after an overtime loss, BYU, and Indiana after their first loss in conference play.

As noted too, four teams are on the bubble from the SEC. Two are among the Last Four in with Texas and Mizzou while Vanderbilt and LSU are a few spots out of the field in the Next Four Out.

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Penn State, Arizona State, Saint Mary’s
Last Four In: Creighton, Texas, Missouri, Ohio State
First Four Out: Nebraska, BYU, UC Irvine, Indiana
Next Four Out: SMU, Vanderbilt, LSU, Iowa

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn has taken the No. 1 overall seed at ESPN after a 38-point blowout of Ohio State in the Holiday Hoopsgiving this weekend in Atlanta to move to 9-1. That gives them a 5-1 record in Quad 1 games, a 4-1 record against the Power Four, and a 3-1 record against the Top-25 with the lone loss being more than acceptable in a top-five matchup inside Cameron Indoor Stadium. They’ll also have one opportunity for one more of each to end the month before moving into conference play.

The South Region saw a lot of teams move down in the projection with eleven of the nineteen possible teams doing so. It also features three of the four play-in games from the First Four in Dayton to determine its No.11, No. 12, and No. 16 seeds.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Lamar/Little Rock
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. North Carolina
5. Memphis vs. 12. Arizona State/Ohio State
4. Houston vs. 13. Arkansas State

6. Michigan vs. 11. Creighton/Missouri
3. Florida vs. 14. Princeton
7. Pittsburgh vs. 10. Saint Mary’s
2. Marquette vs. 15. UMass Lowell

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Tennessee moved down just one spot in ESPN’s prediction in Bracketology despite remaining undefeated at 10-0. The fashion that it came in, though, wasn’t as convincing as the Tigers who moved past them as the Volunteers had their closest call of the season with a buzzer-beating layup needed to get out of Champaign.

Texas A&M and Purdue also swapped spots at No. 3 and No. 4 respectively after the Aggies won by four over them in Indianapolis. Dayton also moved up following their upset of Marquette while Cincinnati moved down after nearly losing to Xavier in the Crosstown Shootout as both teams actually play one another later this week.

1. Tennessee vs. 16. Southern
8. Cincinnati vs. 9. San Diego State
5. Mississippi State vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Purdue vs. 13. Kent State

6. Illinois vs. 11. Providence
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. High Point
7. Dayton vs. 10. Penn State
2. Duke vs. 15. Norfolk State

East Region – Newark

Iowa State (9-1) moved up as a No. 1 seed in the tournament after two wins last week, including a nine-point win in the Cyhawk. They’re now at 9-1 overall with the lone loss coming to Auburn during their opening game in the Maui Invitational.

Oregon at No. 3 as well as Georgia at No. 8, Utah State at No. 9, and West Virginia at No. 10 all moved up. Clemson at No. 6 and Texas at No. 11 then moved down to set up a projected first-round matchup against one another to repeat what their two football teams will do this weekend on The 40 Acres in the College Football Playoff.

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Merrimack
8. Georgia vs. 9. Utah State
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Liberty
4. UConn vs. 13. Furman

6. Clemson vs. 11. Texas
3. Oregon vs. 14. Milwaukee
7. St. John’s vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Alabama vs. 15. Central Connecticut

West Region – San Francisco

Kentucky is the new and final seed at No. 1 for ESPN after moving to 10-1 overall, especially after a 93-85 win over Louisville in the Battle of the Bluegrass. Mark Pope has the Wildcats in early contention with two more games in non-conference against Ohio State this weekend in the CBS Sports Classic and then another on New Year’s Eve before the start of league play.

Baylor then moved down despite two blowout wins while UCLA moved up to No. 4 after a win over Arizona, Arkansas moved up to No. 9 after two more wins, namely a wild one in an upset of Michigan in the Jimmy V. Classic, and Lipscomb moved up as the projected automatic berth out of the ASUN. There are also two very interesting meetings set up here between Zeke Mayo and his former team in South Dakota State as well as a possible second-round matchup between John Calipari and UK.

1. Kentucky vs. 16. American/Hampton
8. Maryland vs. 9. Arkansas
5. Baylor vs. 12. Grand Canyon
4. UCLA vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Drake
3. Kansas vs. 14. South Dakota State
7. Oklahoma vs. 10. Texas Tech
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Montana State