Bracketology: ESPN releases predictions for 2025 NCAA Tournament after Week 2

Despite being through just the second week of the season, Bracketology saw a significant shakeup from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

Lunardi updated his projection for the 2025 NCAA Tournament earlier this morning. The latest shifts come from after several teams who were set as top seeds fell in early-season losses, including a pair of the No. 1 seeds in Duke to Kentucky in the Champions Classic and Alabama on the road to Purdue.

Much of the total seeding across conferences, though, remained the same. The SEC and Big Ten kept all ten berths while the ACC and Big East kept their six and five selections respectively. The Big 12 then lost one with them now down to eight.

Here’s how Lunardi now sees March Madness per his update of the field at ESPN on Tuesday:

ESPN Bracketology: On The Bubble

Of the final eight teams making the field, Saint Mary’s, Pittsburgh, and Michigan all moved up as part of the Last Four Byes. Rutgers, though, moved down into and Miami moved a spot down within the Last Four in with the Hurricanes as the final team in the bracket.

Lunardin then had essentially all new sections of the First Four Out and Next Four Out. UCF would be the First Team out of the field while the Next Four Out includes several teams that have gone deep in recent tournaments in the Aztecs, Wildcats, and Wolfpack.

Last Four Byes: Saint Mary’s, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Michigan
Last Four In: Rutgers, Dayton, Nevada, Miami
First Four Out: UCF, New Mexico, Iowa, Maryland
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Kansas State, NC State, Georgia

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Kansas remained the No. 1 overall projected seed for the NCAA Tournament through their start at 4-0, including their Top-10 win over North Carolina and their own win in the Champions Classic over Michigan State. However, Kentucky became one of the biggest risers in the sport this past week with their win over the Blue Devils as they went from a No. 6 in this bracket to a No. 3.

Purdue also became the No. 2 seed in this section after they won at home over ‘Bama. Other movement in the Midwest Region included shifts up for two other teams in the SEC in Texas A&M and Mississippi State as they’re each in the top half of the seeding now.

1. Kansas vs. 16. Bucknell
8. Mississippi State vs. 9. Wisconsin

5. Texas A&M vs. 12. High Point
4. Creighton vs. 13. Bradley

6. Illinois vs. 11. Nevada/Miami
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Vermont

7. Xavier vs. 10. VCU
2. Purdue vs. 15. North Florida

West Region – San Francisco

With the losses of Alabama and Duke, Gonzaga became the No. 2 overall seed for Lunardi at ESPN. That has them in solid position again early on to finish as one of the top seeds in the bracket, especially with some potential additions to their resumé next month with a pair of Top-10 matchups to open in December.

From there, Tennessee moved up to become the No. 2 in this bracket with Arizona down to a No. 4 following their 15-point loss in Madison. The West Region also had Arkansas move up a line to a No. 6 while Ohio State and Oregon moved down to the No. 7 and No. 10 seeds respectively.

1. Gonzaga vs. 16. Central Connecticut/Grambling State
8. Texas vs. 9. Oregon

5. St. John’s vs. 12. UC Irvine
4. Arizona vs. 13. McNeese State

6. Arkansas vs. 11. Rutgers/Dayton
3. Baylor vs. 14. Kent State

7. Ohio State vs. 10. Pittsburgh
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Purdue Fort Wayne

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn also benefitted from the losses by the Crimson Tide, which has to feel that much better, and the Blue Devils as they became a No. 1 seed themselves in the South Region for Lunardi. Their next two games could further justify that spot with Top-15 matchups against the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in this bracket actually in Iowa State as well as Duke.

This portion of the field also saw UCLA and Wake Forest fall a few seed lines each to a No. 7 and a No. 9.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Norfolk State/Little Rock
8. Memphis vs. 9. Wake Forest

5. Texas Tech vs. 12. Grand Canyon
4. Marquette vs. 13. Arkansas State

6. Florida vs. 11. Michigan
3. Duke vs. 14. Charleston

7. UCLA vs. 10. Saint Mary’s
2. Iowa State vs. 15. South Dakota State

East Region – Newark

UConn is the final team as a No. 1 at ESPN as they moved up to the one-line because of ‘Bama and the Blue Devils. They’ve won each of their three games in blowout fashion with December having a far more difficult schedule for the Huskies to end the non-conference and to open play in the Big East.

Speaking of, the Crimson Tide find themselves in this region now as the first of the No. 2 seeds. The East Region also saw plenty of movement elsewhere with BYU and Samford going up and North Carolina, Cincinnati, Indiana, Michigan State, and Clemson all coming down.

1. UConn vs. 16. Saint Peter’s
8. BYU vs. 9. Ole Miss

5. Cincinnati vs. 12. Princeton
4. North Carolina vs. 13. Louisiana Tech

6. Indiana vs. 11. Boise State
3. Houston vs. 14. Samford

7. Michigan State vs. 10. Clemson
2. Alabama vs. 15. Northern Colorado