Bracketology: ESPN reveals updated predictions for 2026 NCAA Basketball Tournament

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi never rests. On Tuesday, the March Madness expert updated his predictions for the 2026 NCAA Basketball Tournament.

With teams officially entering the summer and several players withdrawing from the 2025 NBA Draft, Lunardi had plenty to consider. Things will only heat up in the coming days as some of the players who were expected to take their talents to the next level find a new home in the college basketball landscape instead.

While Lunardi expects some teams to repeat their success from last season, he also has a few surprise programs in his bracket predictions. With so much to cover, let’s dive into Lunardi’s latest Bracketology.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Creighton, Georgia, Maryland, Miami
Last Four In: Ole Miss, NC State, Marquette, SMU
First Four Out: Texas A&M, Nebraska, Indiana, Washington
Next Four Out: Clemson, Villanova, Virginia, Notre Dame

Lunardi foresees Miami making an NCAA Tournament appearance in head coach Jai Lucas‘ first year at the helm. In fairness, Lucas has already built a solid roster with the Hurricanes, adding notable transfers such as Tre Donaldson and Malik Reneau.

However, Lunardi isn’t as bullish on all first-year head coaches. The postseason expert currently expects Texas A&M to just miss the Big Dance in its first year under Bucky McMillan, who was Samford‘s head coach from 2020-25. Lunardi also predicts blue-chip programs like Villanova and Clemson to miss the tournament.

Midwest Region – Chicago

Lunardi has Houston as his No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The Cougars fell short of their first national title in program history in April when they suffered a 65-63 loss to Florida in the National Championship.

Nonetheless, with Emanuel Sharp, Joseph Tugler and, possibly, Milos Uzan returning next season, the Cougars are poised to be in the hunt for the national title again. Alas, if Lunardi’s projections are correct, it won’t be easy. Lunardi also has Michigan and Florida in the Midwest Region.

1. Houston vs. 16. Southeast Missouri State
8. Mississippi State vs. 9. Oregon
5. USC vs. 12. Yale
4. Ohio State vs. 13. Charleston

6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Memphis
3. Florida vs. 14. Furman
7. Cincinnati vs. 10. Georgia
2. Michigan vs. 15. Youngstown State

West Region – San Jose

It’s difficult to keep UConn away from the top of the college basketball world for long, and Lunardi believes the Huskies will be returning to the national title conversation next season. In fairness, the Huskies are returning standouts like Solo Ball and Alex Karaban from last year while adding Silas Demary Jr. in the transfer portal.

Of course, in Lunardi’s hypothetical West Region, UConn’s path to the Final Four would be far from a cakewalk. Tennessee will be dangerous next season, with Nate Ament expected to be one of the top freshman in the country. Not to mention, Arizona’s red-hot offense can compete with anybody when it’s firing on all cylinders.

1. UConn vs. 16. Navy
8. Vanderbilt vs. 9. Baylor
5. North Carolina vs. 12. Grand Canyon
4. UCLA vs. 13. UC Santa Barbara

6. Louisville vs. 11. VCU
3. Tennessee vs. 14. McNeese State
7. Oklahoma vs. 10. NC State/Marquette
2. Arizona vs. 15. Idaho

East Region – Washington D.C.

Purdue’s best commitment this offseason was from a player it’s already quite familiar with: Braden Smith. The All-American point guard is expected to be a frontrunner for National Player of the Year next season. Boilermakers fans took a sigh of relief this spring when Smith announced he was returning following an avalanche of transfer rumors.

In Lunardi’s vision of events, Purdue wouldn’t exactly be rewarded for being a 1-seed. In Lunardi’s Bracketology, Purdue would face either Alabama or Creighton in the second round. To be the best, you have to beat the best, but that would be an early test for even the most confident team.

1. Purdue vs. 16. South Carolina State/Long Island
8. Alabama vs. 9. Creighton
5. Illinois vs. 12. Liberty
4. Arkansas vs. 13. High Point

6. Gonzaga vs. 11. Ole Miss/SMU
3. Iowa State vs. 14. South Dakota State
7. Missouri vs. 10. Maryland
2. St. John’s vs. 15. Siena

South Region – Houston

Duke will be hungry in the 2025-26 campaign after melting down in the closing minutes of its Final Four loss against Houston. While the Blue Devils will be nearly unrecognizable from last season, they won’t lack talent.

Duke has the No. 2 incoming freshman class in the country, along with a pair of key transfer commitments. Lunardi’s expectations for Duke could take a hit if transfer commit Cedric Coward opts to stay in the draft. Alas, for now, the Blue Devils are riding high into next season.

1. Duke vs. 16. Vermont/Jackson State
8. Iowa vs. 9. Texas
5. Auburn vs. 12. Illinois State
4. Michigan State vs. 13. Miami (OH)

6. Wisconsin vs. 11. San Diego State
3. BYU vs. 14. Troy
7. Kansas vs. 10. Miami
2. Kentucky vs. 15. Florida Gulf Coast