Bracketology: ESPN updates NCAA Tournament projection before second weekend of conference play

Three days after his last update to the field, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released another after more results this week and ahead of the second weekend of conference play in college basketball.

With the short turnaround, the number of seeds in each conference didn’t change at all from Tuesday. It’s just of note that the SEC has a two-bid lead in first with 13 and is on the verge of having 14 with the First Team Out also now being in the Southeastern Conference.

With that, here’s how Lunardi projects the 2025 NCAA Tournament after this week’s league games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Several teams, including multiple big-name programs, moved up and down on the bubble to end this week for ESPN.

North Carolina, Texas Tech, Missouri, and Indiana all moved up further on the bubble or into the field while Saint Mary’s, Villanova, and Iowa are also trending upward as each has won anywhere from one to as many as four conference games in a row. Cincinnati, Arkansas, Dayton, and Vanderbilt then fell down with Texas, the First Team Out, and Penn State dropping from the field entirely with all of them having lost anywhere from one game to three consecutive games as of late.

Last Four Byes: North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Arkansas
Last Four In: Dayton, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Indiana
First Four Out: Texas, Arizona State, Saint Mary’s, Creighton
Next Four Out: Penn State, SMU, Villanova, Iowa

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn won its closest game in a month in Austin this week at 87-82 to get their seventh in a row and move to 14-1 overall. The Tigers now have a good chance to get their 15th victory against the worst team by record in the SEC and maintain that No. 1 overall seed at ESPN.

The South Region then tied for most movement in its portion of the bracket. UConn came down after a tough, two-point loss on the road at Villanova while Mississippi State trended up to a No. 2 seed with Michigan, a No. 4, and Louisville, a No. 9, moving up as well.

1. Auburn vs. 16. SE Missouri State/Vermont
8. San Diego State vs. 9. Louisville
5. Connecticut vs. 12. Samford
4. Michigan vs. 13. South Alabama

6. Wisconsin vs. 11. Dayton/Missouri
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Akron
7. Baylor vs. 10. North Carolina
2. Mississippi State vs. 15. Montana

East Region – Newark

Duke was able to move up this week to the second of the No. 1 seeds after getting to 13-2 with a 5-0 start in the ACC. The Blue Devils should be further extending their lead in the league and for one of the top seeds in the bracket as well, with only one game left this month against a team in the top half of the conference.

Beyond that, St. John’s moved up to a No. 8 after a road win at Xavier while Ohio State was down to a No. 10 after a rough three-game stretch at 1-2, including a loss at home last night to Oregon.

1. Duke vs. 16. Southern
8. St. John’s vs. 9. Georgia
5. Purdue vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Houston vs. 13. Yale

6. Pittsburgh vs. 11. Vanderbilt/Indiana
3. Illinois vs. 14. Saint Louis
7. West Virginia vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Alabama vs. 15. Central Connecticut

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

The Blue Devils moved past Tennessee after the Volunteers, the final undefeated team, took their first loss in a 30-point blowout at Florida. Still, with the 14-0 start prior to that, they remained as a No. 1 seed but down one as the third of the four total.

The Midwest was also tied for most movement in their part of the bracket. Oklahoma moved up to a No. 7 despite an 0-2 start in the SEC, albeit both being to Top-10 opponents, while Arizona did too to a No. 8 with its longest win streak of the season at five games, including a 3-0 start in the Big 12. Memphis, UCLA, and Maryland all then moved down, with the Bruins and Terrapins both dropping two in a row in the Big Ten ahead of a matchup against one another tonight.

1. Tennessee vs. 16. Youngstown State
8. Arizona vs. 9. Maryland
5. Memphis vs. 12. Bradley
4. Michigan State vs. 13. Charleston

6. UCLA vs. 11. Arkansas
3. Kansas vs. 14. Norfolk State
7. Oklahoma vs. 10. Cincinnati
2. Marquette vs. 15. Marist

West Region – San Francisco

Iowa State also slid because of the Blue Devils down to the last of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN. The Cyclones remain a top team, though, at 13-1 overall with ten wins in a row, three in league play, and the lone loss still being to Auburn in the Maui Invitational.

Ole Miss and Texas Tech were then up to a No. 6 and No. 10 after two conference wins apiece with their ones this week on the road in Fayetteville and Provo respectively while Kentucky is down to a No. 4 and Clemson is down to a No. 8 after double-digit road losses in Athens and Louisville.

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Omaha/Holy Cross
8. Nebraska vs. 9. Clemson
5. Gonzaga vs. 12. Lipscomb
4. Kentucky vs. 13. UTEP

6. Ole Miss vs. 11. UC San Diego
3. Oregon vs. 14. High Point
7. Utah State vs. 10. Texas Tech
2. Florida vs. 15. Utah Valley