Bracketology: ESPN updates NCAA Tournament projections ahead of marquee matchups

After the first week of the new year and the opening of conference play across college basketball, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released a new edition of Bracketology.

All of the No. 1 seeds in the bracket remained the same with all four being the top-four teams in the latest AP Poll beyond movement from region to region in the field.

As for the conference, the SEC remains atop the totals with 13 while the Big Ten is right behind at 11. The Big 12 then has eight, the ACC have five, the Big East has a trio, and the Mountain West and Atlantic-10 have a pair apiece.

Here’s how Lunardi projects the 2025 NCAA Tournament from the latest release of his bracket this morning:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Early conference play created movement, both positive and negative, for several teams on the court. Louisville, Vanderbilt, Arizona, and Creighton all moved up with the Cardinals, Commodores, and Wildcats all getting into the field while Texas, Arizona State, SMU, and Saint Mary’s all slid with the Longhorns on the very edge of the bubble while the other three went out.

Missouri then remained as the Last Team Out this week at ESPN.

Last Four Byes: Dayton, Louisville, North Carolina, Vanderbilt
Last Four In: Arizona, Texas Tech, Penn State, Texas
First Four Out: Missouri, Arizona State, Indiana, Creighton
Next Four Out: SMU, Saint Mary’s, BYU, New Mexico

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn continued to hold onto the No. 1 overall seed for ESPN with another blowout in their opening win in conference play at 84-68 over Mizzou.

The South Region also saw Memphis, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Lipscomb all moved up one to two seed lines to No. 4, No. 6, No. 10, and No. 12 respectively while Gonzaga and Clemson trended or were down a spot despite three-game win streaks in their leagues.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/SE Missouri State
8. Clemson vs. 9. Ohio State
5. Gonzaga vs. 12. Lipscomb
4. Memphis vs. 13. Troy

6. Wisconsin vs. 11. St. Bonaventure
3. Kansas vs. 14. Yale
7. Utah State vs. 10. North Carolina
2. Florida vs. 15. Akron

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Tennessee, the final remaining undefeated team in the sport at 14-0, took the second of the No. 1 seeds for ESPN again after their own blowout in their conference opener at 76-52 over Arkansas.

Kansas also moved back up to being a top-three seed with a 51-point road win along with upward shifts by Ole Miss and San Diego State. Texas Tech, Penn State, and Cincinnati were then all down after at least one loss apiece, two in the case of the Bearcats, for each in their leagues.

1. Tennessee vs. 16. Youngstown State
8. San Diego State vs. 9. St. John’s
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Bradley
4. Houston vs. 13. Samford

6. Michigan vs. 11. Texas Tech/Penn State
3. Kansas vs. 14. UMass Lowell
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Cincinnati
2. Marquette vs. 15. Central Connecticut

East Region – Newark

Iowa State also remained as the third of the No. 1 seeds for ESPN after their own double-digit outcome at 74-55 against Baylor.

The East then had four teams trending up, three of those being in the Big Ten, with Illinois at No. 3, Purdue at No. 5, and Nebraska at No. 8 all winning two to three straight league games along with West Virginia at No. 6 with a 3-0 start in the Big 12. Dayton is then the only team in this portion that’s down after a 20-point road loss at George Washington.

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Kansas City/Navy
8. Nebraska vs. 9. Arkansas
5. Purdue vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Connecticut vs. 13. Charleston

6. West Virginia vs. 11. Vanderbilt
3. Illinois vs. 14. UTEP
7. Baylor vs. 10. Dayton
2. Alabama vs. 15. Norfolk State

West Region – San Francisco

Duke then stayed as the last of the No. 1 seeds for ESPN after blowouts in their third and fourth conference games by 23 versus Virginia Tech and by 27 at SMU.

The West Region then had the most movement this week. Kentucky was back up to a No. 2 seed after another Top-10 win for the Wildcats. However, the rest of them were shifts down for teams like Oregon, Oklahoma, Maryland, Georgia, and Texas with each taking one loss with the Terrapins taking two.

1. Duke vs. 16. Marist
8. Maryland vs. 9. Georgia
5. UCLA vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Mississippi State vs. 13. Grand Canyon

6. Pittsburgh vs. 11. Arizona/Texas
3. Oregon vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. Oklahoma vs. 10. Louisville
2. Kentucky vs. 15. UNC Asheville