2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: March Madness begins as regular season nears end

It is finally March. The NCAA Tournament is just weeks away and the regular season is nearing a conclusion as conference tournaments prepare to open play. Automatic bids will be handed out soon and the remaining spots will be filled out with at-large teams until the bubble bursts for some.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The Mountain West continues to use strong analytics to support their case for six bids this season while other mid-major conferences look to become multi-bid leagues as well. Meanwhile, some of the Big 12 luster has worn off for teams struggling down the stress.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Feb. 29.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
Last four byes: Wake Forest, Colorado State, FAU, New Mexico
Last four in: Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Villanova
First four out: St. John’s, Providence, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 Little Rock (OVC) vs. 16 Merrimack (NEC)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
11 Nevada vs. 11 Colorado
11 Virginia vs. 11 Villanova

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Grambling State
8 Texas Tech vs. 9 Gonzaga
Pittsburgh
5 Clemson vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 Creighton vs. 13 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
Salt Lake City
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 Virginia/Villanova
3 Alabama vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Omaha
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 Wake Forest
2 Kansas vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue is still the top team in college basketball as March begins. The Boilermakers hold the top spot in the Big Ten and maintain an edge over UConn and Houston as the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology.

2-seed Kansas

Kansas remains a 2-seed based on their strong resume. The Jayhawks look likely to finish behind Houston for the top spot in the Big 12, college basketball’s top conference, but still have a chance to cement their spot as a top seed with a strong finish.

West (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City
1 Arizona (Pac-12) vs. 16 South Dakota State (Summit)
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Nebraska
Spokane
5 Kentucky vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 SDSU vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Omaha
6 Florida vs. 11 McNeese State (Southland)
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Akron (MAC)
Indianapolis
7 Washington State vs. 10 New Mexico
2 Marquette vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona remains the final team on the 1-line in this updated bracketology. The Wildcats are the top team in the Pac-12 and still have a resume to compete with any of the 2-seed teams looking to steal their spot with a strong close to the season.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette remains on the 2-line thanks to a pair of convincing wins over bubble teams from the Big East over the past week. The Golden Eagles remain in contention for a top seed thanks to big games left on the schedule.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN)
8 Michigan State vs. 9 Texas
Pittsburgh
5 BYU vs. 12 Richmond (A-10)
4 Auburn vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Memphis
6 South Carolina vs. 11 Indiana State (MVC)
3 Baylor vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Charlotte
7 Mississippi State vs. 10 Colorado State
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Fairfield (MAAC)

1-seed UConn

UConn remains No. 2 on the overall seed line ahead of Houston by a slim margin and just behind Purdue. The Huskies have enough big games the rest of the way to continue building on the conversation about the No. 1 overall seed.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina remains the No. 5 overall seed and the top 2-seed waiting on a chance to climb up the board thanks to a string of wins in the ACC since the NCAA Tournament selection committee gave a glimpse at their seed list.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Little Rock/Merrimack
8 Boise State vs. 9 Northwestern
Spokane
5 Dayton vs. 12 Samford (SoCon)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Cornell (Ivy)
Brooklyn
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Nevada/Colorado
3 Duke vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Charlotte
7 TCU vs. 10 FAU
2 Tennessee (SEC) vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed Houston

Houston holds steady on the 1-line as the No. 3 overall seed behind Purdue and UConn once again. The Cougars will have plenty more resume building opportunities in the final weeks thanks to the strong computer numbers of the Big 12.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee continues to sit on the 2-line in bracketology following another strong week in the SEC, where they now sit atop the conference standings. The Volunteers have closed the gap with North Carolina as top team on the line and can make the jump with another big weekend performance.