2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: 11 bids clinched, high-major tournaments begin

The first automatic bids to the 2024 NCAA Tournament has been clinched by mid-major programs through multiple conference tournaments, leading to some locks for this edition of bracketology. As the high-major conference tournaments approach, the bubble is starting to solidify.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The top of the bracket continues to take shape, but the bubble is where the most action occurs. Teams on the edge of the field will hope for minimal bid stealers and a deep conference tournament run to secure their spot.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Mar. 9.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
Last four byes: Oklahoma, TCU, Northwestern, Colorado State
Last four in: Mississippi State, Indiana State, New Mexico, Villanova
First four out: Virginia, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 MONTANA STATE (Big Sky) vs. 16 GRAMBLING STATE (SWAC)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 WAGNER (NEC)
11 Mississippi State vs. 11 Villanova
11 Indiana State vs. 11 New Mexico

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 MONTANA STATE/Grambling State
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Colorado
Salt Lake City
5 BYU vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Richmond (A-10)
Pittsburgh
6 SDSU vs. 11 DRAKE (MVC)
3 Creighton vs. 14 Toledo (MAC)
Omaha
7 Florida vs. 10 Northwestern
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue remains the top team in bracketology as UConn looks to close the gap during the postseason. The Boilermakers will be among the last teams to close out their regular season schedule on Sunday before turning the focus toward the Big Ten conference tournament and the NCAA Tournament after.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State remains on the 2-seed line in the latest bracketology update despite ending the regular season with a loss. The Cyclones will look to rebound in the Big 12 conference tournament and prove that all the regular season numbers can carry over into a deep postseason run.

West (Los Angeles)

Charlotte
1 Tennessee (SEC) vs. 16 STETSON (ASUN)
8 FAU vs. 9 St. John’s
Spokane
5 Clemson vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 Illinois vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Memphis
6 Utah State (MWC) vs. 11 Mississippi State/Villanova
3 Baylor vs. 14 MOREHEAD STATE (OVC)
Salt Lake City
7 ST. MARY’S (WCC) vs. 10 TCU
2 Arizona (Pac-12) vs. 15 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee looked like it could fall back onto the 2-seed line after losing the regular season finale against Kentucky. However, a late loss by Arizona helped keep the Volunteers on top and actually further the gap between the two teams heading into postseason play.

2-seed Arizona

Arizona had every opportunity to make a return to the 1-seed line in this updated bracketology after seeing Tennessee drop a game against Kentucky on Saturday. However, the Wildcats dropped a game against USC to close out the regular season and might have lost their chance at moving back up without another slip up by the Volunteers.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Nevada vs. 9 Michigan State
Spokane
5 South Carolina vs. 12 MCNEESE STATE (Southland)
4 Kansas vs. 13 CHARLESTON (CAA)
Pittsburgh
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Indiana State/New Mexico
3 Kentucky vs. 14 COLGATE (Patriot)
Charlotte
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 Colorado State
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 LONGWOOD (Big South)

1-seed UConn

UConn remains No. 2 on the overall seed line with a chance to pass Purdue during the conference tournaments if they can manage to go deeper into the weekend. The Huskies continue to look the part of a back-to-back candidate by hitting their stride at the right time.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina moves back to the East region with UConn after sweeping the regular season series with in-state rival Duke over the weekend. The Tar Heels clinched the ACC regular season title and will make one final push toward a 1-seed in the conference tournament.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Norfolk State/WAGNER
8 Nebraska vs. 9 Boise State
Omaha
5 Dayton vs. 12 JAMES MADISON (SBC)
4 Auburn vs. 13 SAMFORD (SoCon)
Brooklyn
6 Texas vs. 11 Princeton (Ivy)
3 Duke vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Indianapolis
7 Washington State vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 Marquette vs. 15 OAKLAND (Horizon)

1-seed Houston

Houston remains the No. 3 overall seed in bracketology after clinching the Big 12 regular season title. Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars have eliminated all doubt about their ability to compete at a higher level in year one competing in the new conference. Now, they turn their focus to finding postseason success.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette climbs back onto the 2-seed line after a brief absence thanks to a win over Xavier, paired with a loss by Baylor on Saturday. The regular season is now over, but the race for seeding within the Top 16 is just getting started as each team looks to cement themselves up top with a deep conference tournament run.