Bracketology: Updated ESPN March Madness predictions reveal Texas, UNC movement, complete field projection

This week’s conference tournaments have several results in, including multiple key ones, heading into their games on Thursday. That has led to yet another update to Bracketology late last night from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

The biggest outcomes of those came on Wednesday in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. All four games affected the bubble in some way with a win for Arkansas moving it up off the bubble and a for Vanderbilt putting the Commodores back on it.

Respective wins for Oklahoma and Texas are pushing the two rivals further up on the bubble, specifically for the Longhorns as they’re now the First Team Out. The ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 had their own, too, with North Carolina back in with a win, Ohio State now out after a loss, and West Virginia back on the bubble with a loss.

As for the rest of college basketball, seven more automatic berths have been earned through conference championships. Those went to Gonzaga (WCC), McNeese State (Southland), Montana (Big Sky), UNC Wilmington (CAA), Robert Morris (Horizon), American (Patriot), and St. Francis (Northeast). Here’s the latest projection at ESPN from Lunardi for the field of the 2025 NCAA Tournament:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Utah State, Oklahoma
Last Four In: San Diego State, Indiana, Xavier, North Carolina
First Four Out: Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: Dayton, Wake Forest, UC Irvine, Villanova

Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were the biggest winners yesterday for the bubble with what they did in Music City. The Razorbacks won by four over South Carolina, the Sooners won by six over Georgia, and the Longhorns won by seven over Vanderbilt to all trend up to better position themselves in or to almost be in the field. The same can be said for now for North Carolina with the twenty-point win over Notre Dame, which sets up a matchup for the Tar Heels this afternoon against another bubble team in Wake Forest, making them the Last Team In.

Ohio State was then the biggest loser as a seven-point loss to Iowa will all but remove them from contention to be in the bracket. Vanderbilt and West Virginia harmed themselves as well despite still being at the front of the Last Four Byes.

The Mountain West then remains notable as part of the bubble. There’s one team in each of the first three sections of the bubble, which could cause the conference’s total amount of teams to fluctuate in the tournament depending on final scores from Las Vegas as Utah State, San Diego State, Boise State, and Colorado State will all play today.

South Region – Atlanta

Lunardi has continued to maintain that Auburn (27-4, 15-3) will remain the No. 1 overall seed regardless of what happens in their quarterfinal tomorrow in the SEC Tournament. With that and considering they could only add to that resumé over the next few days, the expectation is the Tigers will stay there come Selection Sunday.

The South Region only had a pair of movements within its seeding. Arkansas is up two lines to a No. 9 seed after their win on Wednesday in Music City to have 5-of-6, with that since also avenging their one loss over that time. Marquette is then the Razorbacks’ matchup in the first round after sliding one line to a No. 8 as they head into their quarterfinal in the Big East Tournament after losing two straight against a pair of the best in their conference to end the regular season.

1. Auburn vs. 16. *SIU Edwardsville/Jackson State
8. Marquette vs. 9. Arkansas
5. Oregon vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Clemson vs. 13. Akron

6. UCLA vs. 11. VCU
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Missouri vs. 10. Baylor
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Bryant

East Region – Newark

Duke (28-3) will play its first game in the ACC Tournament with a quarterfinal later this morning. That said, the Blue Devils, per Lunardi at ESPN, would likely need to win their bracket while the Tigers lose a third in a row tomorrow to make this much more of an argument to move up from being the second of the No. 1 seeds by Sunday.

The East Region only had bubble-related movement with losses for Vanderbilt in the SEC, as the Commodores have lost three straight now, and for West Virginia in the Big 12 putting them back among the Last Four Byes. However, Iowa State vs. BYU in the quarterfinal of the Big 12 Tournament this afternoon could impact the seeding of both teams.

1. Duke vs. 16. *American/*St. Francis
8. Mississippi State vs. 9. Creighton
5. BYU vs. 12. Liberty
4. Maryland vs. 13. *High Point

6. Michigan vs. 11. Vanderbilt
3. Iowa State vs. 14. *Troy
7. Louisville vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Tennessee vs. 15. *Robert Morris

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Houston (27-4, 19-1) also held as the third of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN ahead of its game in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament this afternoon against Colorado. The Cougars will be in a similar spot depending on any results for them this week in Kansas City, as well as for Auburn in the SEC or Duke in the ACC.

The Midwest Region then saw Gonzaga go up a line to a No. 7 after avenging a pair of their two losses with a win over Saint Mary’s in the WCC Championship. San Diego State, who play tonight in a key game for the bubble against Boise State, was then down to a No. 10 as one of several teams contending to be in out of the Mountain West.

1. Houston vs. 16. Quinnipiac
8. Memphis vs. 9. Georgia
5. Saint Mary’s vs. 12. *McNeese State
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Yale

6. Kansas vs. 11. San Diego State/Indiana
3. St. John’s vs. 14. *UNC Wilmington
7. *Gonzaga vs. 10. *Drake
2. Alabama vs. 15. *Wofford

West Region – San Francisco

Florida (27-4, 14-4), the final of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN, is awaiting its opponent as well for the quarterfinal tomorrow in Nashville. With that, the Gators will be playing to not only win in the conference tournament but keep ahead of two other teams in the league for this No. 1 seed in Alabama and Tennessee.

The West Region also had only movement involving the bubble. Oklahoma is projected further in now as a No. 11 seed in the Last Four Byes after winning over Georgia in the SEC Tournament, while North Carolina is back in as the Last Team in after that win over Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament.

1. Florida vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Connecticut vs. 9. New Mexico
5. Arizona vs. 12. Xavier/North Carolina
4. Purdue vs. 13. *Lipscomb

6. Illinois vs. 11. Oklahoma
3. Kentucky vs. 14. *Montana
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Utah State
2. Texas Tech vs. 15. *Omaha