Breaking down 8 teams best positioned for Final Four run in 2025 NCAA Tournament

The 2025 NCAA Tournament field has been revealed, and now every college basketball fan can take a look at their team’s path to a Final Four. While there is a case to be made for plenty teams as championship contenders, there are undoubtedly a handful with better draws.

By default, the highest seeds are generally best positioned to make a Final Four run, but every year there are unlikely teams who find a manageable path toward the final weekend. Last season, both Alabama and NC State completed magical runs to challenge 1-seeds UConn and Purdue.

After breaking down the possible paths, along with the resume built up over the season, the list of top contenders narrows. Here are eight teams which have the best chance to make a Final Four run and compete for a national championship.

Duke

Duke lands in the East Region as the No. 1 seed, with every opportunity to make a deep run through the NCAA Tournament. The path to the Final Four’s biggest obstacle might be the health of the roster, with Cooper Flagg looking to bounce back from an ankle injury and Maliq Brown’s return in question. On the court, however, the Blue Devils should hold an advantage through the first two weekends.

The path starts with a matchup against American or Mount St. Mary’s, which should provide no challenges regardless of injury reports. The second round against Mississippi State or Baylor could require some help from the projected No. 1 overall NBA Draft prospect. Arizona and Oregon then stand in the way, with a potential meeting against the likes of Alabama, BYU or Wisconsin in the Elite Eight.

Houston

Houston gets a good draw in the Midwest Region, with their best chance to make a Final Four appearances in recent years ahead if they can put the past behind them and stay healthy. In the mix for several seasons now, the schedule lands favorably for the Cougars this season.

The path starts with a matchup against SIUE, then could present the toughest challenge prior to the Elite Eight, with Gonzaga in the running to face them early despite great predictive metrics. From there, they likely match up favorably against Clemson or Purdue — or even McNeese if a Cinderella sneaks through. Then Kentucky and Tennessee look most likely to challenge them late.

Florida

Florida looks like the most dominant team in college basketball right now, rolling through the SEC Tournament with relative ease considering the caliber of opponents. The Gator also boast a combination of elite starting lineup and great depth which can only be rivaled by a select few in college basketball this season.

The path starts with Norfolk State, then either of the toss-up first round opponents UConn or Oklahoma. With Maryland, Memphis and Colorado State in the mix next, Florida might be forced to utilize its depth to overcome teams with great strengths. Then a potential meeting with St. John’s and their underrated group keeps Florida from calling any path easy.

Auburn

Auburn might draw the toughest path to the Final Four of any 1-seed in the field, despite being ranked No. 1 overall. The Tigers looked so dominant it might not matter for much of the season, but lose three of four entering the NCAA Tournament to open discussion across the rest of college basketball about their ability to win it all.

In the first round, Auburn should cruise by either Alabama State or St. Francis PA. Then, the toughest second round matchup yet for a 1-seed, whether it is Creighton or Louisville on the other side. The second weekend could start with either Texas A&M — who just beat the Tigers — or a Michigan team fresh off a Big Ten title. Finally, Michigan State could stand in the way of making it to San Antonio.

Michigan State

Michigan State catches the other side of Auburn’s bracket, which ranks the most difficult of the four. That, paired with some breaks on the bottom of the bracket, bring the Spartans firmly into the mix of manageable paths toward a potential Final Four berth.

The March Madness run starts with a Bryant team which might not be the best matchup, but has a talent gap. Then either Marquette or New Mexico, with the lower seeded team perhaps the scarier on recent form. If Iowa State advances to the Sweet 16, they will do so without one of their top scorers, who has been ruled out for the season. Add in Auburn’s recent skid and the door is open for the Spartans.

St. John’s

St. John’s enters the NCAA Tournament without enough conversation surrounding how good they have been to this point. The overall record matches up with anyone in the country, and they have dominating over the past few months in the Big East, building momentum.

The return to March Madness opens against Omaha, then setting up a Hall of Fame coaching matchup against either Arkansas or Kansas — both of which have underachieved. Texas Tech, Missouri or even Cinderella Drake could make the Sweet 16, but the toughest challenge would undoubtedly come in the Elite Eight if Florida can roll through their side of the bracket.

Tennessee

Tennessee enters the NCAA Tournament once again as a top team in college basketball, still looking to make the first Final Four appearance in program history. While last year’s team came close, this roster will be given the same opportunity to get over the hump with a viable path through the bracket.

The Volunteers start against Wofford, then will face the winner of UCLA and Utah State. The second weekend could feature a rivalry matchup with Kentucky and Illinois the top seeds, and Texas in the mix if they make a run from the play-in round. A potential meeting with Houston would undoubtedly be difficult to overcome, but a rematch against Purdue is also on the table.

Kentucky

Kentucky is presented with a decent path in the NCAA Tournament field, giving them plenty to cheer for as Mark Pope looks for his first March Madness win as a head coach. The Wildcats biggest challenge is health at the guard spot, where they need Lamont Butler to return at full strength immediately.

The run starts against Troy, then would see Kentucky play the winner of a difficult-to-predict meeting of Illinois and the First Four winner between Texas and Xavier. The inconsistency of all those could help see Kentucky to a potential meeting with rival Tennessee before a chance to face Houston or Purdue in the Elite Eight.

More complicated paths

Alabama, Arizona, Maryland, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

These teams also have a viable path to the Final Four, but with the teams in the way there is certainly no guarantee. Every year one team overcomes the challenges of a tough draw and makes a deep run, perhaps it will be one of these six playing for a national championship.