Breaking down early 2024 Heisman odds

With the 2023 college football season in the rearview, FanDuel wasted little time looking ahead to 2024 with its early release of Heisman Trophy odds. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck enter tied as the frontrunners with odds of +750.

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, Ohio State quarterback Will Howard and Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe round out the top five. On3‘s national college football columnist Jesse Simonton joined Andy Staples on Monday to break it down, saying he likes Beck over Ewers at the top.

“That’s a little rich for Quinn,” he said. “+750? I know they got (Isaiah) Bond and some of these other guys out of the portal, but he could lose his job this season. Whereas Carson Beck, he is the guy at Georgia. Milroe is gonna be the guy for Alabama. I think that’s probably a little rich with what Alabama’s returning at receiver right now. We’ll see what that roster looks like after the spring portal. Certainly Will Howard will be in position if they let him run a lot, but it may be the two running backs that garner the most acclaim in Columbus with the identity shift I think Ryan Day’s embracing this offseason.”

Beck put up more yards (3,941) and touchdowns (24) while throwing an identical amount of interceptions (six) to Ewers this season. He also had a better completion percentage (72.4%) and doesn’t have Arch Manning looming behind him on the depth chart.

The Georgia quarterback certainly seems to have the most favorable position of anyone in the top five. Howard and Gabriel are both transferring into new programs while Milroe has a new coach following the retirement of Nick Saban. Couple that with the fact that Georgia is likely to be many people’s No. 1 heading into next year, and there’s a lot to like about Beck’s Heisman odds.

“I was very big on Carson Beck going into last season because he was down the list,” Staples said. “Now that he’s a favorite, I don’t know if there’s much value there, but I do think there’s a good chance he winds up in New York just because he’s probably gonna be the starting quarterback of the team that’s gonna be No. 1 in the country for a while. The Will Howard thing’s interesting to me just because now they just keep picking up people around him. Although Ohio State, with Caleb Downs and all they brought back on defense, they might not need to score a whole bunch.”

Simonton and Staples then each gave a sleeper pick from outside the top five. Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart, who has odds of +1800, was the pick for Simonton.

Dart threw for 3,365 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions this past season while also rushing for 389 yards and eight more TDs. The Rebels brought in receiver Juice Wells, one of the top players in the transfer portal, to give him a big weapon.

“The one that stands out to me is probably Jaxson Dart +1800,” he said. “I would bank on him if you’re looking at who he’s with. If you look at Nico (Iamaleava) has better odds than him, which is a little strange to me. Ole Miss’ offense is gonna be awesome. Dart, he’s gonna scoot a little bit with his legs.

Staples pointed to Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels, who spent most of the 2023 season injured. Daniels has struggled with injuries in each of the past two years, but has been a dynamic playmaker when he play. His 544 yards passing and seven total touchdown in the 2022 Liberty Bowl certainly won’t be forgotten by Jayhawks an any time soon.

Daniels comes a bit further down the list with odds of +4000.

Ultimately, there’s no way to predict what the Heisman race will actually look like next season. Players are likely to surprise out of no where and some of the big names on this list may not have the seasons they’re expected to.

It’s also a big change for college football with the expansion of the Playoff to 12 teams and stronger schedules across the country. Simonton believes that could change how we view the Heisman race, with stats holding more weight than victories as they did this year with Jayden Daniels.

“I don’t think fans have put into perspective what these gauntlet seasons are now gonna look like with the new 12-team Playoff,” he said. “There’s going to be more losses. LSU’s playing this now crazy SEC schedule plus they have USC and UCLA. Georgia’s playing Clemson and a renewed Georgia Tech. Alabama’s going to Wisconsin. There’s not gonna be teams going 17-0 or 18-0. So with that, we just saw a guy last year, Jayden Daniels, wasn’t punished with the fact his team lost three games.

“I think that’s gonna become more of the norm where if you’re putting up these insane statistical seasons, you maybe don’t have to be Carson Beck on the No. 1 team in the country. You can be on a team maybe is a fringe Playoff team but you had some big moments in big games.”