NCAA Tournament bubble: Stock up, stock down, conference breakdown as regular season closes

March Madness has officially arrived and the NCAA Tournament bubble has never been more active with teams looking to play their way into the postseason. The regular season is coming to a close over the weekend as conference tournaments provide the last chance to make an impression.

Plenty have teams have all but clinched their NCAA Tournament berth at this point in the season, but others have left a lot to be done in a very short amount of time. The bubble is full of teams hoping they have done enough over the last few months.

At this point in the season, the line between bubble teams and teams considered ‘in the field’ can fluctuate from week to week – generally shrinking as time goes along.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on 9-line are split between safe and concerned depending on what they have left. As the bubble shrinks, the biggest threat sometimes comes from bid thieves from mid-majors once the conference tournaments start.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams still in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

St. John’s (34)

St. John’s spent time on the Stock Down portion of this list in recent weeks, but has turned things around recently to rise back onto the bubble with just a few days left in the regular season. In Rick Pitino’s first season at the helm, there have been plenty of ups and downs which will ultimately be defined by how the next week and a half go before Selection Sunday.

St. John’s is now 5-9 in Q1 games with one loss outside the top two quadrants. They close the season against Q4 Georgetown as they look to avoid a bad loss before the Big East conference tournament provides more opportunities to improve the resume.

Gonzaga (17)

Many bracketologists had Gonzaga hanging onto an NCAA Tournament spot just a week ago, but after knocking off their biggest rivals in the WCC, the Bulldogs now look safe heading into Selection Sunday. Not only do they boast an improved resume, the Top 20 spot in the NET rankings makes them a lock.

Gonzaga now has three wins in Q1, including two over the past week, and a 6-6 record in the first two quadrants with no losses in the bottom two.

James Madison (53)

James Madison started the season as the darlings of college basketball, knocking off Michigan State before making an appearance in the AP Poll Top 25 after a big run of non-conference wins. However, early slip-ups in the Sun Belt schedule took them out of the public spotlight and on the wrong side of the bubble.

They are now 27-3 overall despite not leading their conference standings. The Sun Belt could potentially become a two-bid league if enough bubble teams struggle over the next week and the Dukes make a deep run thanks to their lone win in Q1.

Stock Down

Wake Forest (41)

Wake Forest surged up the board thanks to some big ACC wins and a noticeable leap in the NET rankings. But a three-game losing streak has followed, dropping them back to the bubble with little room for error in the conference tournament next week.

The Demon Deacons are now 7-11 in the top two quadrants with just two Q1 wins. Their spot at No. 41 in the NET rankings has also dropped them into the conversation for one of the final spots in the field.

Oklahoma (42)

Oklahoma is part of the group of Big 12 teams scrambling to reach a .500 record in the conference with just a few chances left. It would likely take some tournament wins to reach that mark for the team now, as they continue to drop in the NET rankings with the losing streak.

The Sooners are now No. 42 in the NET even after beating Cincinnati, with a 9-10 record in Q1 and Q2, along with no losses in the bottom quadrants. They still appear safe for now, but are moving closer to the bubble line.

Ole Miss (79)

Ole Miss had an incredible run through the non-conference schedule to enter the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation despite low analytic numbers. However, as they struggle to find a rhythm in SEC play, the Rebels continue to drop further out of the picture for bid despite their overall record.

The Rebels have fallen to No. 79 in the NET rankings and are now 5-10 in Q1 and Q2, suffering seven losses in their last nine games.

FAU (37)

FAU looked like an NCAA Tournament lock for much of the season but recent skids in the American, which has looked weaker than expected to this point and likely gets no more than two bids, has hurt the resume. They now sit firmly on the bubble with a big weekend matchup against surging Memphis.

The Owls boast a 7-5 record in Q1 and Q2 this season, but two losses in Q4 do not help the case. They will need to perform over the next week or so to cement their spot once again.

Conference breakdown

ACC
In the field: Duke (9), North Carolina (10), Clemson (24)
On the bubble: Pittsburgh (44), Virginia (49), Wake Forest (41)
More to do: Virginia Tech (54)

Big 12
In the field: Baylor (13), BYU (12), Houston (1), Iowa State (8), Kansas (16), TCU (40), Texas (28)
On the bubble: Cincinnati (45), Oklahoma (42), Texas Tech (35)
More to do: N/A

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (15), Michigan State (22), Purdue (2), Wisconsin (23)
On the bubble: Nebraska (43), Northwestern (52)
More to do: Iowa (57), Ohio State (59)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (7), Auburn (6), Florida (26), Kentucky (20), Mississippi State (33), South Carolina (47), Tennessee (5)
On the bubble: Texas A&M (55)
More to do: Ole Miss (75)

Pac-12
In the field: Arizona (4), Washington State (39)
On the bubble: Colorado (31), Utah (46)
More to do: Oregon (64)

MWC
In the field: Boise State (27), SDSU (19), Utah State (38)
On the bubble: Colorado State (36), Nevada (32), New Mexico (29)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (11), Marquette (14), UConn (3)
On the bubble: Providence (62), Seton Hall (67), St. John’s (34), Villanova (25)
More to do: N/A

Others
In the field: Dayton (21), Gonzaga (17), St. Mary’s (18)
On the bubble: Drake (48), FAU (37), Indiana State (30), James Madison (53), Memphis (72)
More to do: Princeton (51), South Florida (75)