Bubble Watch: NCAA Tournament battle continues entering final weekend

Teams that are fighting for a bid in the upcoming NCAA Tournament are running out of opportunities to build their resume as college baseball’s regular season nears its end. One week remains before conference tournaments get underway for most leagues across the country, the the NCAA Tournament bubble is still contested.

On Monday, we released our latest Field of 64 projections. We also took an in-depth look at the hosting picture, which we’ll now do for the bubble.

Last week, the bubble included some notable teams on both ends with LSU as one of the last four teams in and Coastal Carolina among the first four teams out. Those teams now find themselves on the opposite end of the bubble this week, with LSU listed as one of our next four teams out and Coastal Carolina as one of the last four teams in.

Additionally, Maryland moves from first four out to last four in this week, while Georgia Tech goes from first four out to in the field and off of the bubble. Those are just some of the changes on this week’s bubble.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Last Four In

Coastal Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech, UCF

After a brutal seven-game losing streak that had Coastal Carolina on the wrong side of the bubble last week, they sneak back in as one of our last teams in this week. The Chanticleers took two out of three against Georgia State, and now sit at 30-21 overall, 13-14 in the Sun Belt and No. 37 in RPI. Also working in Coastal Carolina’s favor is a non-conference RPI of No. 11 with a non-conference strength of schedule at No. 2. Their final weekend is at Marshall, and if they win they should be on the right side of the bubble.

Maryland is 34-19 overall, 10-11 in the Big Ten and No. 35 in RPI. The Terrapins also have a non-conference RPI at No. 14. Winners of eight of their last ten games, Maryland is trending upwards entering the regular season’s final week. They finish at home against Penn State this weekend, a series that they should win. If they do, and get to 12-12 or 13-11 in Big Ten play, the Terrapins will have a solid argument to get in. Lose the series this weekend, though, and their chances are likely done.

Virginia Tech doesn’t have a ton on their resume, but they can change that this week. The Hokies are 32-17 overall, 14-13 in the ACC and currently No. 55 in RPI. They are on the road this weekend at Virginia, and winning that series would be a loud statement entering the ACC Tournament. A run there would be helpful as well. Virginia did lose last weekend agaisnt NC State, and Virginia Tech is looking to stun them again this week to stay on the right side of the bubble.

UCF is similar to Virginia Tech, as they are 31-17 overall, 12-14 in the Big 12 and No. 40 in RPI. For UCF, this weekend’s series on the road at Baylor is must-win, and maybe must-sweep. That is surely possible, and if UCF at least wins the series they’ll remain firmly on the bubble. Lose the series and they aren’t going to be on the right side of the bubble, barring a run in the Big 12 Tournament.

First Four Out

James Madison, Northeastern, Indiana, Ole Miss

James Madison finishes just on the outside in this week’s NCAA Tournament bubble, and they were a difficult cut. At 30-20 overall, 15-12 in the Sun Belt and No. 47 in RPI, James Madison is right there in the mix to make the field. They have a difficult final weekend series, though, as they are on the road at Troy. Winning that series would be massive, and likely get them in. But if James Madison loses, they could be just barely too far out.

Northeastern was safely in the field not long ago, but they’ve now lost three of their last four weekend series. Sitting at 34-15 overall, 15-9 in the CAA and No. 31 in RPI, they are definitely not out of it. But they must win this weekend against Stony Brook. Northeastern’s RPI is in a good spot, but a stumble this weekend would hurt them. Ultimately, we expect them to finish just short of the field.

Heading into their series at Nebraska this past weekend, Indiana had won five consecutive Big Ten weekend series. While they lost the series, both of their two losses to Nebraska were tight ones. The Hoosiers now sit at 28-21-1 overall, 13-8 in the Big Ten and No. 56 in RPI. That RPI is going to be a holdup, but Indiana could help themselves out this weekend against Michigan. Lose it and the Hoosiers are probably out, but win it and they could be right on the bubble.

And, finally, Ole Miss is suddenly right back in the mix. The Rebels stunned Texas A&M this past weekend by winning the first two to take the series, and now sit at 27-24 overall, 11-16 in the SEC and No. 24 in RPI. Ole Miss has a massive weekend on the road at LSU to end the regular season. Both teams are fighting to get on the bubble, and the Rebels’ RPI will have them in the mix as long as they can get to 13 SEC wins by winning the series.

Next Four Out

Florida, LSU, Utah, Cincinnati

Florida has struggled this season, sitting at 26-25 overall and 11-16 in the SEC. But the Gators sit at No. 29 in RPI and are definitely in the mix on the tournament bubble if they can stay over .500. The only problem with that is they are on the road at a red-hot Georgia team. The Gators don’t have a choice, they must win the series.

LSU was in our field as one of the last four teams in last week, but now they are on the outside looking in after losing two out of three at Alabama. Both of the two losses came by a single run, but they weren’t losses the Tigers could afford. LSU is 33-20 overall, 10-17 in the SEC and No. 34 in RPI. The RPI is good enough, but the league record isn’t. LSU would really benefit from sweeping Ole Miss this weekend, and if they do they could find themselves back in the mix. But it still wouldn’t guarantee them a spot.

Cincinnati has, admittedly surprisingly, played themselves onto the bubble. The Bearcats are 30-21 on the year, 16-11 in the Big 12 and No. 53 in RPI. That is certainly bubble territory, though a non-confernece strength of schedule at No. 151 and a non-conference RPI at No. 96 won’t do them any favors. Cincinnati finishes the year at home against an Oklahoma team that is likely to host, and winning that would be a big statement. Lose it, though, and the resume probably doesn’t have enough.

Utah was pretty safely in the field a couple of weeks ago, but back-to-back series losses have them in the danger zone. The Utes won the opener this past weekend against Arizona, but then lost the next two to drop the series. They are 31-18 overall, 16-11 in the Pac-12 but just No. 71 in RPI. That isn’t going to be good enough, and winning this weekend at USC is non-negotiable.